JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 10/9/24

PHR Live Chat: 10/9/24

Josh Erickson

1:56

Hey folks, will get started at the top of the hour!

Fishing Nets

2:01

Thoughts on the goalie extensions (Daccord, Ullmark) that were handed out today?

Josh Erickson

2:01

Well, I wrote it in the Ullmark article – Swayman has almost immediately accomplished "resetting the goalie market."

2:02

I think both goalies are in advantageous situations, especially Ullmark. Give both the Bruins and Sens average goaltending last year, and I think Ottawa ends up with the better record. There was that much of a swing between Ullmark/Swayman and Korpisalo/Forsberg, I really believe that.

2:03

Yes, it's an overpay for Ullmark based on previous market value. But is it really? He's saved more than expected for five years in a row. That's rare, no matter the workload. Yeah, he's never made more than 50 appearances in a season. But it's clear the position is changing, and it's no longer gonna be the bonafide starters getting elite money. It's got more to do with straight-up numbers and less about workload.

2:05

I mean, seriously. Who was the last guy to play 70 in a year? Cam Talbot with the Oilers? Was it Vasy, maybe? Can't remember. But only 20 goalies played 50 or more last year, and only THREE guys played 60 (Saros, Georgiev, Hellebuyck)

20 years ago, 12 goalies played 60 or more in a smaller league.

waivers

2:05

Were you surprised that bad teams like SJ didn't use their early slots to make a waiver claim yesterday ?

Josh Erickson

2:08

Not really. I'll comment on the Sharks specifically here. They didn't have the roster flexibility to add a guy. They had a full 23-man roster and would have needed to waive somebody else to make a claim and still be compliant for the 10/7 deadline. Yeah, they could have sent somebody down that's waiver-exempt (Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Gushchin), but all those guys forced their way onto the team. Was there really anybody on waivers worth the roster shuffle trouble for? Claims that close to the roster deadline really only make sense for teams with an open roster spot w/ no corresponding transactions required.

Igor

2:08

How high of an AAV do you think Shesterkin will eventually reach on his next deal, be it with the Rangers or elsewhere?

Josh Erickson

2:11

Well, if I'm his camp, I'm thrilled at the extensions today. There's probably a $3MM gap, at least, between his value and Ullmark's, yeah? So I'm reasonably confident he'll be able to snag a bit more than the $11MM he apparently rejected. Whether he can hit the $12MM he wants is a different story. Even with the market going crazy and the cap going up, I think $1.5MM per season over the previous record-holder for a goalie AAV is still optimistic.

I still think the chance he actually makes it to market is astronomically low. Even after the report yesterday, I'd be shocked.

draft

2:11

Even though it's still a bit early, do you think that Arizona taking Daniil But at 12th was a mistake given the players they passed in 2023 ? I thought he was ranked slightly lower going in.

Josh Erickson

2:13

He was, as was Simashev. Looking back at my personal rankings for that year, I had both as second-rounders. I was much lower on Simashev than consensus... a lot of people had him trending up. I do really like the post-draft year But had, though. I still think both were slight reaches, but they're on track to prove me wrong.

Pawtucket

2:15

Scoring leaders for the following teams
Kraken
Utah Hockey Club
Blue Jackets
Senators

Josh Erickson

2:16

McCann seems like a lock for Seattle, no? I'll still take Keller for Utah, even though Guenther will challenge. CBJ is the wild card with their injuries. Either Fantilli or Marchenko. Give me Stützle in Ottawa, too.

Kraken Netminders

2:16

Do you think Daccord can replicate his strong performances from last year in light of his shiny new extension? Related question, does Daccord's deal signify that Grubauer's days in Seattle are numbered in your opinion? $10.9M is a lot to invest in goaltending.

Josh Erickson

2:19

We'll see. I don't think his numbers will be quite as good as they were, but he was also worth more than $5MM last season. Year-over-year, I don't think that contract is gonna be a huge steal, but it should be fine. His previous NHL showings were rocky in limited viewings, but his minor-league numbers show he might be the real deal. In reality, he's probably somewhere in between, and it should work out okay as the cap goes up.

defense

2:20

When do you think Chicago will trade Connor Murphy, this year or next ? Does it depend on how Levshunov develops ?

Josh Erickson

2:21

I don't think they do, unless they're not competitive in 2025-26. He's a valuable leader to them, and he's only got two years left on his deal. They could trade him at the 2026 deadline, but I think anticipating Levshunov steps into a 2RD role behind Jones next year may be optimistic.

2:22

I could also see them extending him if he's still interested in playing. Given his bout with osteitis pubis last year, I wonder if he might retire when his contract is up.

Dan

2:22

Is it just me, or will Florida become the next NYI with all these long contracts. I'm sure Barkov's will age fine, but they're going to have a lot of guys on the wrong side of 35 making a ton of money

Josh Erickson

2:24

For now, I think they're still okay in the long term. However, if they give Bennett an anchor deal, that might be the sinker. I'd let him walk, honestly, and let Lundell take over the 2C role past this season. That cap management probably extends their contention window by two or three years.

Dan

2:25

Who would you rather have on your team, Guenther, or Jarvis?

Josh Erickson

2:27

Oh man, that's a toughie. I'm gonna assume you're asking me this to compare their long-term ceilings, not their present value. If so, I'd go Guenther, but it's suuuuper close. I just think he's got a better shot and a bit more star-power pop in his game. I know he's not nearly as physical, but I also don't think Jarvis potting 30 is an every year thing. He shot almost 19% last year.

Honestly, I think it's more of a toss-up than anything else. But if I had to choose, I'd go Guenther.

extra F

2:27

If AA is a healthy scratch again in the near future as he was last night, would Chicago consider sending him through waivers as noone wouls claim him due to his excessive salary ? (approx $4.5 mill)

Josh Erickson

2:29

I don't see the need to waive him. They'd rather have him sitting as an extra F than a young kid getting playing time in Rockford, and it's not like they need the cap space. Unless someone forces their way up with a performance-based recall and they need to open a roster spot, I don't get the purpose of waiving him.

Dan

2:29

Are the Sens doubling down on goalie gambles with this Ulmark extension? 8+ mil could look awful bad if he can't preform in front of Ottawa's D. I thought the Sens said they'd take their time with this one, but they haven't even played a regular season game yet

Josh Erickson

2:30

Yeah, and it does feel rushed considering they weren't even talking about an extension a couple of weeks ago. Any goalie deal is a gamble, but it's a much safer one than the Korpisalo deal.

2:32

And we talk about the Senators having a bad defense, but do they really? I'll put much more blame on Korpisalo for last year than team defense. They allowed a few more high-danger chances than league average, but total scoring chances allowed were actually better than league average. They generated a lot across the board. Perfectly average possession team last year. Bruins and Senators actually allowed the exact same number of high-danger chances at 5-on-5 last year (634, about 7.7 per game).

opinion

2:33

Based in Minn. and likely having seen him a lot, what is your opinion of Wyatt Kaiser ?

Josh Erickson

2:34

He's an incredibly projectable talent, imo. Should stick as an above-average 3LD long-term with fringe 2LD upside. What more could you want out of a third-round pick?

randomdude

2:36

Slafkovsky points total? Kyle connor goals total? 45ish? And vilardi if he plays 82 games?

Josh Erickson

2:39

I really liked Slafkovsky's two-way game last year. He had decent enough instincts his rookie year, but he's obviously got some real confidence under him now. I don't think he'll be the type of player who's scoring ever really pops. I always viewed him as a high-ceiling, low-floor type of player, and I don't think that's changed. I wouldn't expect a huge jump accordingly, and I think 60 may be pushing it.

For Connor, I'd bank more on the high 30s. That's what his career average is per 82 games, and I don't see any conditions to create an outlier.

If Vilardi plays all 82, wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see him hit 30G/60P. He's one hell of a shooter.

LGD

2:39

Thanks for doing this every week! I read that Seamus Casey’s contract can’t slide. If true, why not?

Josh Erickson

2:40

Of course! And that's absolutely true. ELCs can only slide if the player is in their age-18 or age-19 season (with one minor exception). Casey is 20.

Leafs @ 33 arenas

2:44

What 3rd line center would be available to the Leafs if Holmberg doesn't work out?

Josh Erickson

2:46

Great question. Would need to think conservative with their lack of cap space. Maybe somebody like Nico Sturm out of San Jose? Not sure how much of an upgrade he'd be, though.

If Philly decides they're done with somebody like Noah Cates, that would be really intriguing to me. Kinda fell off the map last year, but was 15th in Selke voting in 2022-23 for very good reason.

Jeff

2:46

Should Mavrik Bourque be getting the same love as Stankoven? Bourque seems to be just as good, yet all the talk revolves around Stankoven.

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