JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 10/23/24

PHR Live Chat: 10/23/24

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Josh Erickson

1:55

Hey folks! I'll get started at the top of the hour.

Sorry for not getting one in last week. Had something come up that day, and I had to log off the site earlier than I'd hoped. It wasn't a planned absence.

Cbj4life

2:00

Are the jackets opening up some eyes now ????

2:01

Elvis must go ..always hurt or illness .. buyout after the season ???

Josh Erickson

2:02

The offense is certainly popping, isn't it? I do think they're playing better than a true lottery team, that's for sure. I'm not confident they can keep up a .500 pace, but I'd hazard a guess that they'll be closer to 82 points than 62.

Possession control has been stronger than most expected. They're controlling shot attempts at even strength, but not shot quality – hence the subpar save percentage from Tarasov (.888) despite him grading out decently well in advanced metrics.

2:04

As a team, they're shooting 2.6% above league average so far. They have some skilled snipers, but I think it's unlikely overall they keep it up. I wouldn't be surprised to see them avoid a last-place finish in the division at this stage, but anything higher than sixth would be a major surprise.

And yeah, I'd consider a Merzļikins buyout next summer at this stage. It would be a $1.625MM cap hit for four years. I'd take that penalty without a doubt.

Rags Fan

2:04

What do you make of the Rangers possible future plans on D? Are Trouba and Lindgren around beyond this season? Is Mancini here to stay? What do you make of Jones getting scratched? And what is the overall ripple effect of a Shesterkin extension at 11m++? And what do you see Laffy getting with his next contract?

2:05

And as always... Thank you for your time!!

Josh Erickson

2:06

I think it's too early to say on both Trouba and Lindgren, although I'd say the former is likelier to stick around with the latter just based on their contract situations. Obviously easier to part ways with a pending UFA than a player with term left.

2:08

I think the Rangers did well to repair their relationship with Trouba after how aggressively trade rumors swirled pre-draft. Whether Lindgren stays depends entirely on how he plays. If it's another year like last, they'll have no qualms about letting him walk. But if he gets his possession numbers back where they have been, I could see them re-assessing a Trouba trade and getting out from that contract to deal with some other business, including re-signing Lindgren. I don't think they'll lose both.

2:09

And small sample size on Mancini, but the early returns don't look great. 3 points in 6 games is a bit eye-popping for sure, but the possession numbers are Not Good (39.5 CF%) in relatively advantageous offensive usage. I do think he has NHL ceiling, though. Would get him back to Hartford soon so he can develop more. Just not quite ready for the show full-time.

2:11

If Lafrenière signs today, I'd guess it's in the high 8s per year. If he waits and keeps clicking at a point per game, I could see $9MM AAV for sure.

Mike

2:12

I am a little perplexed on how fantilli and Jiricek are being used. As Columbus might not be in a position for a playoff spot on paper why not give them the opportunities to excel like top PP time. Seems like last year all over again

Josh Erickson

2:15

Not sure what you mean about Fantilli. He's playing almost 18 minutes per game. Yeah, he's centering PP2 and not PP1, but he turned 20 earlier this month.

2:16

With that many minutes, he's gotta produce more than 2 goals and no assists in six games. Not sure what else they can do for him right now. Again, 2C/PP2 is about where he should be.

2:18

Now, Jiříček is an extremely valid complaint. There isn't much else he has to prove in Cleveland, that's for sure. Sitting in the press box for that long to give minutes to... Jake Christiansen and Jordan Harris? That's a puzzling choice. I think he's looked good in his limited minutes alongside Johnson. I'd move Provorov back to the left side and elevate Jiříček for sure. And it doesn't look to me like Jiříček is getting any power play time at all, which I'd agree is counterproductive.

Dan

2:19

Curious to hear your thoughts on Leo Carlson’s start to the season. What do you project for him long term? Did the ducks make the right call on him over fantilli? Thanks!

Josh Erickson

2:20

Kid looks like he's got a little bit of a shot, doesn't he? Haven't caught much of the Ducks, but possession numbers tell me there's no sophomore slump in his defensive play thus far. It's a small sample, but if he keeps up his current offensive pace, that's 55 points in an 82-game season. With how Fantilli is starting his year, I can't see him outproducing that.

2:21

To this point, Carlsson has been the much more effective NHL player. I'm not ready to say Fantilli's ceiling has dropped below Carlsson's, but it's at least clear to me what Anaheim's logic was making that call.

I see Carlsson and Matty Beniers projecting out very similarly, although at this stage, I'd give the slight edge to Carlsson's offensive upside.

BB-STC

2:24

Why is Eric Lindros in the hall of fame? Many players with similar career numbers and are not even considered HOF worthy.

Josh Erickson

2:27

I'm not sure many players who averaged 1.14 points per game over their career aren't even considered HHOF worthy, and that's even more impressive considering he played in the league's lowest-scoring era. He was legitimately the best player in the league for a short time, I'd argue. There's also all the international accolades to consider – two Olympic medals, a bunch of IIHF awards, etc.

2:28

But from his debut through 1999-00, Lindros averaged 1.36 points per game. Only Gretzky and Lemieux averaged more. What's not HHOF-worthy about that?

2:29

And he was only 0.01 point per game short of Gretzky during that timeframe and a far better defensive player at that stage of his career.

jobidn

2:29

What makes a team like the jets so successful and is this all a fluke? And someone like pionk has a point per game. Is he gonna be a 50pt player or will he slow way down later on?

Josh Erickson

2:31

You'd have to single out Pionk's unlikely re-emergence as one of the most under-reported storylines in the league this year, at least so far. He's got the best possession metrics of any Jets defenseman, too. That's just wild after the year he had in 2023-24. No telling whether he keeps it up, but yeah, that indicates to me 45-55 points is certainly within range. That would be a career-high for him, and a big reason why I don't see the Jets dropping too much from last year's point total at this stage. The team identity hasn't altered a bit under Arniel (in a good way). Hellebuyck is Hellebuyck. Life is good in Winnipeg.

2:33

That said, overall, I'd expect some regression here soon. Their possession numbers weren't quite where they were last season, and while they're controlling overall possession well, they're allowing a few too many high-danger chances for my liking. If that keeps up, there will be a cold streak pretty quickly here. But overall, I'm not sold on them falling out of the top three in the division.

Matty Ice

2:35

Do you think there's any reason to be concerned about Beniers' slow start offensively?

Josh Erickson

2:36

Oh, man. I hadn't checked in on the Kraken in a hot second. After the way last season went, I don't blame you for cringing at one assist in seven games.

2:37

A few reasons for optimism, though. He's shooting more – like, a lot more. 17 shots through seven games is 2.4 per game. He only had 1.7 per game last year and 1.9 the year prior.

2:38

So, the goals will start coming. He's also had 28 shot attempts – about four per game, also a significant margin above his rookie and sophomore years. It's not just a fluke of more shots going through unblocked.

2:39

The low assist total is somewhat concerning to me, though, because the Kraken as a team aren't shooting below average. It looks like he's bounced around with a bunch of different wingers so far, so I'm not sure who to attribute that to.

2:40

So, that to me tells me he's struggling with quantity over quantity. In total, he's only been on the ice for 1.9 expected goals on the ice at even strength. That's a yikes. Him and whoever he's with have got to be more aggressive about generating high-danger chances.

prospect

2:40

Where did you have Greentree of Windsor on your 2024 personal draft list ? Some people said his skating needed a boost, but it doesn't seem to be a problem.

Josh Erickson

2:41

I had him about where he went, in the mid-20s to the Kings. I wasn't on the top-15 hype train. I agree with your assessment. I think concerns about his stride were overblown, and although there were some valid ones, people tend to overvalue skating technique in scouting reports, IMO. It's easily fixable with the right coaching/development staff.

2:43

Liked the pick for the Kings at 26. On second thought (I don't have the list in front of me), I think I may have graduated him to the late teens by the end of the cycle. I'm still happy with that. Obviously, 17 assists in nine games for Windsor this year isn't sustainable, but hitting early on in your post-draft year is generally a really strong sign for forwards' development. I'd start getting excited about him.

top line

2:48

Does Foligno belong on Bedard's line or would Hall or Bertuzzi be a better fit ?

Josh Erickson

2:49

No, I'd keep Foligno for now. That's not what I would have predicated, but those three are clicking right now (incl. Teräväinen). Controlling play quite well. The goals will come for Bedsy, he's not shooting at 4% forever.

Who's Fabio?

2:49

Do you think Mitch Marner is tracking for the HOF? Do you think it would be crazy for the Leafs to let him leave?

Josh Erickson

2:50

Man, he's really at a crossroads in his career, isn't he? He hasn't jumped out to me a ton this year. Nylander's been better. That doesn't bode well for his contract talks.

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