JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 10/2/24

PHR Live Chat: 10/2/24

Josh Erickson

1:57

Hey folks! I'll get started in just a few minutes.

Nick

2:00

With wat Calgary is doing and only 4.6 AAV left over 2 years, is it possible to see Dallas going after rasmus and if it happened could it even remotely improve their bottom 4 on the blue line?

Josh Erickson

2:01

I love the fit, I'd be surprised if they didn't at least call, and it would be a gargantuan improvement to their bottom four on D, let alone remote. Although I'd argue they'd probably run him on their top pairing alongside Heiskanen with how their roster is currently constructed.

2:03

But Calgary's made it pretty clear they're not chomping at the bit to sell on him. After all, as you point out, he's got two years left. Nonetheless, it'll take a huge offer to get him away from the Flames right now. I'd imagine Dallas has to start with a Lian Bichsel or Mavrik Bourque PLUS a first-rounder, and I'm not sure they'd be willing to do that with how much they trust their in-house development. But it would certainly make them more of a championship contender than they already are and eliminate their only real weakness, imo.

The Brink

2:03

Which surprising Players are the most likely to make the Roster Cut this Year?

Josh Erickson

2:04

Keep an eye on Aatu Räty, who's survived a lot of Canucks cuts.

2:05

Over in Columbus, Owen Sillinger is still in the running for an F spot. Cole's older brother, had been on AHL deals and just signed his first NHL deal this summer.

2:06

Those are the two real surprises that come to mind, at least for now. I also wonder if Harrison Brunicke may get a nine-game trial, which is exceedingly rare for a second-rounder in their post-draft year. I know he's really impressed in Pittsburgh.

Connor

2:06

What are the bruins expectations this year? Thanks!!👍🏻 go B’s!

Josh Erickson

2:09

I don't think any of the moves they made involving skaters moved the needle much. They're about where they were last year, which is perfectly fine. Not championship-contending, but certainly playoff-caliber.

Essentially, the only factor I see drastically impacting their record is goaltending. I already forecasted about a 6-10 point drop in the standings by replacing Ullmark with Korpisalo, but assuming Swayman remains unsigned potentially until December? I'd be more concerned about a drop to the mid-90s in terms of year-end point total, putting a playoff spot in jeopardy. I still think they make it, but I'd expect them to finish third in the Atlantic or get in via a wild card spot.

Rags Fan

2:09

So the Rangers are having some injury issues and the season hasn't officially started. Have you heard anything official on Panarin, if he'll be out longer? If he's out to start the season... does Othmann get a look? I can see Edstrom replacing Vesey... Rempe should start in AHL imo... and Mancini to replace Lindgren to start the season?? Thoughts on what you think they might do?

Josh Erickson

2:10

No, no word yet on Panarin. NYR have been exceedingly cautious with injuries so far, but they've also downplayed some stuff (see Laviolette on Vesey). I don't get the feeling he'll be out to start the season, though. He's probably done for the exhibition schedule now that he's left games twice, but they've still got a week until the regular season opener.

2:11

But yeah, if there's an open roster spot, I'd imagine Othmann is the first in line.

2:13

I highly doubt Rempe will start in the AHL. I think it was doubtful before Vesey got hurt, but it's almost unforeseeable now with him out and Groulx on waivers today.

2:15

And I know Mancini's had a strong camp, but my jaw would be on the floor if a team with championship aspirations has him on their top pair for their opening night lineup. I'd imagine Zac Jones gets that call with Ruhwedel slotting in on the third pairing and Mancini sitting as the extra. If anything, I could see Mancini starting at 3LD with Ruhwedel sitting in the press box, but that's it.

Rags Fan

2:15

And as always... thank you for your time and insight.

Josh Erickson

2:15

Of course! Thank you for the questions!

99 > 66

2:15

What type of return do you think the Bruins would receive if they did decide to trade Jeremy Swayman?

Josh Erickson

2:16

Not as high as Bruins fans would hope. Not many teams can afford his ask, so there wouldn't be much of a bidding war. Bruins also wouldn't have a ton of leverage as it's a last resort.

2:17

Still significant, it's not like they'd deal him from scraps. But outside of a first-round pick (or equivalent asset), I'm not sure how much else they'd be able to tack on.

***for, not from

CapsFanInNC

2:17

All indications are that the Caps are going to start the season with 13 F and 8 D, with Alexeyev and Bear being the two extra blueliners. Who would be your pick as the 13th forward, and whom do you think they’ll actually go with; Cristall, Miroshnichenko, or Vrana? Or do you think they’ll go outside the box and waive someone like Milano or send LaPierre back to Hershey?

Josh Erickson

2:19

I'd bank on Vrána getting it. I think Miroshnichenko can handle consistent NHL minutes, but I don't see the rush. Let him get a little more comfortable in Hershey until a larger NHL opportunity opens up for him. It also does no service to Cristall to have him sitting around. He's one of my faves (still can't believe he fell so far to WSH), but he's a project and I anticipated him getting full runway in juniors to round out his game before seeing NHL ice.

2:20

And no, I wouldn't do that. If you don't want Milano in the opening night lineup, insert Vrána and have Milano sit. I don't get the point of waiving him just so you can have Miroshnichenko sitting and not playing or some vet like Sgarbossa staying around.

2:21

Milano's the type of guy who's an ideal 13th forward, IMO. He doesn't need to be an all-around guy – otherwise he'd be in the lineup every night! But he's valuable in a couple of areas of the game and is a quality pinch-hitter type of player. I wouldn't waive him.

Darrell73

2:22

Can you pick 3 players you think are going to have breakout years and 3 you think are going to regress

Josh Erickson

2:23

Ooooh, fun.

The obvious one for regression is Sam Reinhart. No way is he almost potting 60 again – luckily, he's not getting paid like it! He shot 24.5% last year with a 15.6% career average. I'd expect something in the 35-40 range for him.

2:25

Other regression candidates – Anže Kopitar is just really getting up there, and has someone pointed out to me, he set a career high in shooting percentage last year and a career low in shots on goal per game. That's not exactly a recipe for success for a 37-year-old. That two-year, $14MM extension may have been a little premature.

2:26

Would also watch for Boeser to drop back down to the 20-25 goal range after hitting 40 last year.

2:27

Now, the breakout talents! No stats here, just vibes. Alexis Lafrenière was money every time I laid eyes on him last year. I'll bank on a breakout on top of last year's, I wonder if he can hit 70-80 points this time around. Would also look at Guenther in Utah and Stankoven in Dallas.

randomdude

2:27

How would a weegar for ehlers trade look capwise and value wise. Then flames flip him at the deadline? Amd the. Could jets run a perfetti-namestikov-lambert line

Josh Erickson

2:28

I think the Jets would have to add a little bit. I'd call them fairly close in on-ice value, although I'd give the edge to Weegar. That, plus the fact that Ehlers is a pending UFA, tells me Winnipeg would have to attach a significant but non-marquee asset to land Weegar.

2:29

Winnipeg could do that, but that's a pretty weak second line for a team with playoff expectations. But Samberg-Pionk is also a pretty weak second defense pair for a team with playoff expectations. Pick your poison, I guess. I'd stick with Samberg-Pionk rather than Perfetti-Namestnikov-Lambert because then you're at least not overtaxing a prospect who's not quite ready for that responsibility.

waivers

2:29

If put on waivers by Chicago to be sent to Rockford, do you think Lukas Reichel would be claimed ?

Josh Erickson

2:30

I know he's got the first-round pedigree, but with two years left at a cap hit that can't be fully buried in the minors, plus with how truly ineffective he's looked in preseason? I think he might clear.

2:32

With how many other prospects are in the cupboard, I think if I'm Kyle Davidson, I'd take the risk. I think keeping him in the NHL ensures he becomes a bust. If he gets through waivers and heads to Rockford, at least he's got a chance to turn his game around.

swap

2:32

On a long term basis, what do you project of ending up with Frank Nazar and Gavin Hayes for K. Dach ? Is that a reasonable salvage of value ?

Josh Erickson

2:33

I think we still need to see what a healthy Dach can do in Montreal. But for now, I feel comfortable with that swap. Dach's career-best pace so far was 54 points over 82 games (38 in 58 with MTL in 22-23). I'm reasonably confident Nazar can hit that kind of production in a couple of years, and Gavin Hayes is a nice depth piece with a few NHL games ahead of him.

Russian roulette

2:33

Do you think if Arizona took Michkov 6th (instead of Simashev), he'd be in North America now as he is after Phila. took him 7th ?

Josh Erickson

2:34

From what I understand, no. Getting out of his deal with SKA was no small undertaking for Michkov. He wouldn't have gone through the hassle for a team he wasn't overly excited about playing for.

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