JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 1/29/25

PHR Live Chat: 1/29/25

Josh Erickson

1:58

Hey folks, I'll get started in just a couple of minutes

2:01

Man, that Saad termination coming in right at the buzzer. Wow. Good on him for walking away from the money for a chance to play elsewhere.

Rob

2:01

What would an equal trade to Rantanen look like if the Wild can’t sign Kaprizov and have to trade him a year from now?

Josh Erickson

2:02

As a rental, I'd say Kaprizov likely has a slightly higher trade value. There are fewer questions about whether he can drive his own line. Rantanen is a superstar, but like Guentzel last year, there were small concerns that he was a MacKinnon merchant. I think they'll work out an extension far before then, but if they don't, it would likely carry a similar structure to the Rantanen swap with another high draft pick (first or second-rounder) added in.

Rob

2:03

Can the Wild get Rossi signed at 7.5 for 7. Does it take more less?

Josh Erickson

2:04

Less. If they're going long term, I'd imagine something more in the $6.5-$6.75MM AAV range. If they want to go bridge deal to keep their options open for Kaprizov and be huge players on the UFA market with so much cap space opening up, then they could probably work out a two-year deal with a $4.5-$5MM cap hit.

DStars

2:04

How better are the Canes after that trade, and does it alter the Peking order at the top of the East?

Josh Erickson

2:07

I thought the Canes were the SCF favorites out of the East before the deal and I certainly still do. Rantanen is certainly a one-for-one upgrade over Necas, Hall is certainly a one-for-one upgrade over Drury, but I do still wonder about the lack of utility at center among that forward group outside of Aho and Staal. I know Rantanen can take shifts there, but it's never been a long-term experiment. I'm curious to see what happens to Mikko's production in reduced ice time, too. He's played 18-19 minutes in his first two games for Carolina after consistently playing north of 20 in Colorado.

Darrell73

2:08

I heard an interesting trade proposal Bouchard to Philadelphia for drysdale and Edmonton getting back the first overall pick they traded to Philly do you think that makes sense and are Miller and pettersen going to both be moved or do you think It might not happen because of the low ball offers Vancouver is getting

Josh Erickson

2:10

Regarding the first question, not a chance. Drysdale still has to prove he's an everyday NHLer, and that first-rounder, since it's Edmonton's own, will likely be pretty late and thus not as valuable. That's nothing for a D-man who hit 82 points last year and still has a couple of seasons left under team control, even if he is a pending RFA. Flyers would need to add way more.

2:12

And based on Rutherford's quotes yesterday, one absolutely gets moved. It's an untenable situation, and they'll take whatever return they can get once they're sure it's the best one.

Rob

2:12

What are the 2 most likely NHL cities?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Still Atlanta and Phoenix until proven otherwise. Houston I guess, too, but the former two are on track to have new arenas in the next few years – especially ATL. I think someone will get it done in PHX, just not sure who yet.

Rob

2:15

Who would you rather have in a trade at their current contract and term JT Miller or EP?

Josh Erickson

2:16

Pettersson. I know he's having a tough year, but the five-year age gap and his early-career trajectory is just too tantalizing to overlook.

UHC

2:16

Will Utah be buyers or sellers at the deadline? Should Utah try to add J.T. Miller to help boost scoring?

Josh Erickson

2:18

Man, this team has just been so streaky. It's a shame, really. Their possession numbers are playoff-caliber but their depth scoring just isn't clicking. Injuries certainly haven't helped. It depends on if they can get a clearer timeline on Durzi. If they get confidence that he'll be back before/around the TDL, then I say be conservative buyers. Not Miller – not unless the acquisition cost drops – but something needs to jumpstart that depth scoring. They've got a strong enough core that they can stay in the race.

mike18

2:18

What does it take for Logan Thompson to win the vezina? 50+ games or way better save % than helly? Hellebuyck dropping off?

Josh Erickson

2:20

Yeah, he'll have to get a bump in playing time plus some help from an unlikely Hellebuyck regression. I'd argue Thompson has been the better goalie than Hellebuyck on a per-game basis, but a 12-start difference this late in the year is too big to overlook. Hellebuyck would still be my number one just because of his total impact on the team. But if Thompson gets a run here and ends up within 10 starts of Hellebuyck at the end of the year, I can see it being quite close.

trade

2:21

Despite what Kyle Davidson said, your Brian La Rose and I both feel that his return for Hall and retaining 50% on Rantanen was underwhelming. What is your opinion ?

Josh Erickson

2:22

Put me in yours and Brian's camp. Should've upgraded to a second or added another mid-round pick for retaining that much cash on Rantanen, considering how the market's been set the past couple of years. Missed opportunity.

Cbj4life

2:23

What will the jackets do at the trade deadline?? Upgrade at goaltender??

Josh Erickson

2:24

They kinda have to, don't they? At least at backup. Merzlikins has looked quite good as of late. He's got a .934 SV% in his last five games. He's now tracking to save more goals than expected (albeit by an incredibly marginal amount) for the first time since the 2021-22 season. That's huge news and a big reason why they're surging, especially over the last couple of weeks.

2:25

Outside of that, don't think they'll make many moves. Waddell has referred to Jenner returning soon as their big deadline pickup, and they won't sell off their pending UFAs. Too early in the rebuild to big buyers outside of long-term moves, but they're entering hold pat/conservative buyer territory.

waivers

2:25

If Brossoit returns later in the season, with his $3.4 mill salary that extends to next year, wouldn't he clear waivers if sent down to the AHL ?

Josh Erickson

2:27

It's worth noting that the Blackhawks can, and likely will, give Brossoit a conditioning stint in the AHL for up to two weeks when he's close to returning. That maneuver doesn't require waivers. If they still want him in the minors after the conditioning stint is up, they'd have to waive him, but I doubt they will. Davidson commented this week that they envision carrying three goaltenders if Brossoit returns this year, plus a waiver claim is likely if he has a strong showing on a conditioning stint.

Army

2:28

After 2 offer sheets on RFAs, head coach change, trade for Fowler and waiving Saad, I’m still stuck w mediocre team at best. What’s the next move? Major trade, or wait for my young talent to develop?

Josh Erickson

2:29

I think the Saad termination is mostly for his benefit. After all, the player had to elect for it. He's giving up north of $5MM in guaranteed cash over the next year and a half for a shot to play for a contender unencumbered by his contract. That said, the Blues can't be complaining. He would have still cost $3.35MM against the cap if in the minors, money that will come off the books when he clears unconditional waivers Friday. They'll have nearly $10MM in space come deadline day. I say they make a splash.

Miller

2:29

How do you think the JT Miller saga will end and roughly when ?

Josh Erickson

2:32

I thought it would have happened by now. Didn't imagine it stretching out this long after the failed Rangers deal leaked. Oh well. I still think he ends up in NY. Carolina may still be active, but they're not prepared for an acquisition of Miller's caliber after what they gave up. I still think NYR makes the most sense but... crazy talk... would Boston work? E. Lindholm hasn't looked good at all over the past couple of years but was decent in VAN. I wonder if they could work something out there.

deadline

2:33

With only a $2 mill salary for the whole season, won't teams be able to afford Donato at the deadline at the reduced remaining salary without any retention ?

Josh Erickson

2:35

Most will, but some are really up against it. Isles, Canes and Wild would all be out unless they're sending money back. A lot of teams are in that $2-4MM range of projected deadline day space and, if they're making multiple pickups, likely wouldn't be able to afford Donato without a small amount of retention.

Miss Johnny Hockey

2:35

The knocks on the CBJ are bad goaltending and being a 'one line team'. Obviously finding a better goalie at the deadline is not possible, so who is going to be a rental that brings more offense to the 3rd and 4th lines that moves this team from just being a playoff contender to a team that can win a series at least? Thanks for the chat.

Josh Erickson

2:36

Jenner's that guy, no? Once he and Monahan (and Chinakhov) are healthy, that's a pretty huge domino effect.

2:37

I think the answers are in the room, at least for this season when they're not at a stage where they should be making a big rental splash anyways.

Blue Note

2:37

Did Chicago's trade of Hall lower the return for bottom six forwards this year?

Josh Erickson

2:38

Doubt it. I think most front offices are writing that move off as an outlier given how Davidson handled the retention aspect. Of course, return is tied to the cap hit. I think if they were trading just Hall with no retention, that third-rounder would have been an appropriate return based on what the market has been in past seasons.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

2:39

What is the percent chance Seattle actually trades him this deadline? And if so what would you expect the return to be?

Josh Erickson

2:40

I'm not sure. If not for Grubauer, they're in the playoff race. Their offense is slowly starting to click again. With another year left on his deal, the urgency obviously isn't there. I would expect they'll be asking for a first-rounder or prospect equivalent, and if no one gives it up, they'll hold onto him.

Kaapo Kakko

2:45

He's had a very good start to his time in Seattle, do you think he can keep up his strong play moving forward?

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