JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 1/1/25

PHR Live Chat: 1/1/25

Josh Erickson

1:56

Happy New Year, everyone! I'll get started with questions at the top of the hour.

Mike

2:00

How much longer before drury and or Laviolette get fired. Do they want drury to manage the retool/rebuild. Seems like he is the one that got them into this mess from a management perspective

Josh Erickson

2:02

Everything before the holiday break suggested a Laviolette firing wasn't imminent. They've lost both games since coming back, though, and have now lost four in a row by multiple goals. I can't imagine how much longer the Rangers can let this go on without firing both of them. I was willing to shift more of the blame on Laviolette early on since the personnel isn't that different from last season, but after trading Kakko for pennies on the dollar and identifying a pretty poor return piece in Borgen, I certainly don't have much faith in Drury either.

Darrell73

2:02

Who do you think the oilers are going to prioritize for a defensive upgrade do you think they need another goal tender I have heard Gibson name but he makes a lot would quick or talbot make more sense and wow the Canadian juniors can't score how much are they regretting not including parehk Misa and sennecke

Josh Erickson

2:05

The Oilers need a righty. David Savard will likely be on the block. Last year, I would've said yes, but I don't think that makes much sense for the Oilers now. He's posting the worst relative possession numbers of his career in fewer minutes.

2:06

The best option out there for them might legit be Rasmus Ristolainen. The offense isn't what it once was (nine points in 38 GP), but he's averaging over 20 minutes again and is controlling a majority of expected goals for the Flyers despite some pretty tough defensive usage. His reputation is fair and earned, but he's legitimately having a great season defensively. I like him better than Savard as a top-4 RD option, at least based on the last few months.

2:09

And as we talk about resurgent seasons – Gibson is certainly having one of them. He'd certainly be Edmonton's 1A over Skinner, or at least that's how I'd utilize him based on how this season has gone for the two of them. Anaheim is eager to give Dostál more starts. I like the fit and I believe there's been legitimate conversations. That being said, it depends on how much belief Edmonton has in Skinner longer-term. Gibson still has two more years left after this one. Talbot and Quick are lower-risk but have fallen off in the past few weeks. Gibson hasn't. I'd take him for a team with Cup aspirations over the former, changing my tune from a few months ago.

draft

2:09

Is the injury to Erie's Schaefer serious enough to drop him out of the top 3 in the 2025 draft ?

Josh Erickson

2:11

I would say so, but it requires Hagens, Misa and Martone to keep things up. Schaefer wasn't a complete lock for top-three before this happened, IMO. It was likely, but without having a firm idea of how the picks will shake out yet, there was a non-zero chance he'd go to four. I think there's a very small chance he maybe drops to fifth overall, but since he'll be back before the end of the season, I don't see him falling any further than that. He had a shot at 1OA or 2OA before the injury, now I'd guess he's pretty firmly in the 3-5 range.

rookie

2:11

Do you think Nazar should be returned to Rockford for more seasoning or has he shown enough (aside from points) to warrant staying in the NHL ?

Josh Erickson

2:13

I'd like to see him be sent back down. He's got just the one assist in nine games, as you mention, and the numbers aside from that don't scream breakout waiting to happen. Below team-average shot attempt numbers despite advantageous offensive usage. He's kind of in tweener territory right now, obviously tearing up the AHL. Still think he could use a bit more time.

Ferris Bueller

2:13

When do the Blackhawks start unloading players from current roster. There last two games have been a disgrace. Let the kids play.

Josh Erickson

2:14

"Let the kids play" has also had pretty disastrous effects for teams that are still too far away from contention – look over into the Pacific at the Ducks with Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson, and well... everyone failing to produce up to expectations offensively. They'll sell some guys at the deadline but a full fire sale too far in advance risks robbing prospects of still-needed development time.

projection

2:14

As of now, is the contest for the #1 overall pick a tossup between Hagens and Martone (the latter is now listed as #1 on tankathon) ?

Josh Erickson

2:16

I don't think it's a tossup (Hagens still has the edge), but no one has it on lock. I'd still keep Misa's name in there too, even though I think that's a 5-10% shot at best.

StlBorn

2:16

Happy New Year's. When can Blues expect a Possible Brandon Saad trade. Also Buyers Sellers or Holders at the Trade Deadline?

Josh Erickson

2:19

Personally, I just don't think they have the legs (literally) to keep pace for the rest of the season and would give the edge to teams like the Flames and Utah for a wild-card spot, at least for right now. But realistically, I think the Blues will be none of the above. They'll likely move guys out (Saad, as you mention), but look to bring more cost-effective roster players back in return. That's the sense I get at least, and I think it's the right move for where this team is. They're too good to tear it down, not good enough to seriously contend for a spot. They need to get faster, it's pretty simple. With that in mind, I think they aggressively try and move Saad (likely need to retain half) here and won't wait until the deadline.

Reichel

2:19

Reichel probably isn't the right player for a permanent 4th line center slot . If he was moved to the third line, who could move to 4th line ? Nazar doesn't belong there either and Dickinson also really doesn't fit .

Josh Erickson

2:21

I don't necessarily agree with the initial assessment there. Sometimes things just don't work out like teams planned. I think it's worth shedding the notion that Reichel is a top-six or bust guy. He hasn't really panned out in expanded minutes. But aside from his faceoff woes, he's been really quite effective in his 4C role this year. 11 points in 34 games is decent production from that spot in the lineup, especially on a bad team, and he's helping vets in Maroon and Smith generate some more chances deeper in the lineup than most would have thought.

2:22

TLDR; don't mess with a good thing. Reichel in his current role is one of the few things that's going right for the Hawks this year.

Lardis

2:22

Nick Lardis is having another very solid season in the OHL and is listed as 5ft 11. What do you see from him down the road ?

Josh Erickson

2:25

Has the potential to be a high-quality complementary 2RW. Think of someone in the Daniel Sprong mould with a little more trust from his coaches to log top-six minutes. Will get easily buried if he's not with a two-way C.

Russian factor

2:26

Kantserov had a great December in the KHL after he returned from injury. What determines if a Russian prospect leaves his team early like Michkov did and come to North America with his KHL team releasing him from his contract ?

Josh Erickson

2:27

With no transfer agreement, it's all a case-by-case basis. Unless a KHL team agrees to mutual termination (rare, but it's happened – Ivan Fedotov), a player has to buy themselves out of a KHL contract to come to NA if they're not a free agent. Kantserov is signed through 2025-26. I wouldn't anticipate him getting out of his deal early. Another year overseas isn't the worst thing for his development (I'm pretty high on him). With how good he's been for Metallurg, don't see them agreeing to a mutual termination.

Troy

2:29

Happy New Year. I was wondering if you have heard any news or updates on Jenner in Columbus? Do you know when a return timeline is possible?

Josh Erickson

2:30

Jenner started skating on his own about three weeks ago but hasn't yet practiced with the team. With his injury history, they'll be extremely careful. Still no good return timeline I could give you aside from it's looking pretty likely he'll be back before the end of the regular season. I'd say a return before the trade deadline is possible but wouldn't go so far as to say it's likely.

2:30

What do you think Jake Evans’ next contract will look like?

Josh Erickson

2:33

Oh, man. Certainly would not have picked him as the Habs' big breakout guy this year up front, but what a season he's having. Here's the thing – some will rush to put him in the Nick Paul mould, but he's a couple years older than Paul was. I could see something in the $4MM range given his point pace, but his 82-game average over his career is still only 31 points even with this year's breakout. Something like 4-5 years, $4.25MM could be realistic. If he gets much more than that, that's likely a mistake.

LGD

2:35

What’s your feel for the pulse of officiating? My gripe is lack of consistency game to game, so period to period, team to team. Being biased, the Timo Meier 5 minute major Saturday comes to mind. Time to make refs full time employees with more accountability? You pay for what you get

Josh Erickson

2:36

Not sure what you're referring to. All officials are full-time employees of the league. Pretty quick Google search tells you the salary range is $150K-$300K.

Magnus

2:39

Sam Bennetts next contract? Still a Panther?

Josh Erickson

2:41

I wouldn't extend him for what I think he'll likely get on the open market (6x6) range. Lundell has been a revelation this season offensively and has pretty much proven he can shoulder a 2C role long-term with a more cost-effective deal ($5MM through 2030) than what Bennett will cost to keep.

LGD

2:42

So would you say the league is satisfied with the officiating? Consistency still seems to be lacking

Josh Erickson

2:43

If you're the league and don't want inconsistency, take away room for interpretation in the rulebook. There's plenty. They've had plenty of opportunity to remove opportunities for judgment calls by officials and haven't done so. That tells me there isn't a huge sense of urgency or that it isn't viewed as much of a problem.

Junior

2:43

I've been fairly unimpressed with Easton Cowans performance in the WJ. He just hasn't been a positive factor. Thoughts? Also, any players whose stock has maybe risen so far from the tourney?

Josh Erickson

2:44

So far it's gotta be Cole Hutson for that latter answer, no? Yet again, a Hutson brother who shouldn't have fallen to the second round ends up making someone very happy. The Caps have gotten more than their fair share of steals in the past couple of years. He's been dominant.

2:45

That said, this is an extremely fun tournament that also has too small a sample size to really take anything long-term away from it.

Regarding Cowan. His major-junior body of work still does and always will matter more for his projection than his performance in a four-game preliminary stretch. This is also someone who just won an OHL postseason MVP award if you want to debate a "clutchness" factor

David Poille

2:45

What should the Preds do with their roster before the trade deadline?

Josh Erickson

2:47

Something definitely stinks in Nashville, and they definitely have some good names coming (Wood, Molendyk, etc.). Problem is they're not projectable as the game-breakers Forsberg and Josi are. Sell what's left to sell, hope you end up with a top-four selection in the draft and finally pickup a legit franchise-altering talent.

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