JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 09-07-23

PHR Live Chat: 09-07-23

Josh Erickson

4:00

Hi everyone! Happy Thursday.

4:01

As always, I'll wait a few minutes for some questions to come into the queue and then get started. Yesterday was a surprisingly busy day, so I'm sure we'll have no shortage of topics to discuss here.

David C.

4:05

Hey Josh what is your opinion on how the LA Kings will do this season

Josh Erickson

4:06

The Kings are one of, if not the most difficult teams to project this season.

4:07

The more I mull it over, the more pointless I think the Dubois acquisition was considering the assets given up. I consider it more even value exchanged in terms of roster players – Vilardi and Iafallo were both large parts of the Kings' depth and I don't think Dubois exceeds what they, combined, brought to the table.

4:08

That being said, I'm incredibly high on Brandt Clarke and believe he's ready to make a sizable impact this season. I like the state of the defense overall

4:09

But a team with playoff, dare I say championship aspirations, going with Pheonix Copley and Cam Talbot in the crease still makes me speechless. I agree with letting Korpisalo walk if that was the contract he was going to sign, but I truthfully believe the Kings are one of the few teams in the league that should be giving up major assets to acquire Hellebuyck.

4:10

That said, if they don't make any goalie moves, I'm not sure they can hold onto a playoff spot with a Flames team that's ready to rebound and tougher competition from Vancouver (although I don't think the Canucks squeeze in, either)

Mike

4:10

Bedard Calder favourite. Anyone else makes it interesting? I am thinking Cooley and fantilli are legit contenders. Thoughts?

Josh Erickson

4:12

I think Cooley makes it the most interesting, and not just because I'm a Minnesotan. Among potential linemates, if he can't secure a first-line role, he's got the advantage over Fantilli in terms of wingers. If he doesn't slot in alongside Keller and Schmaltz, I see a Cooley-Maccelli connection being rather lethal out of the gate. I'm rather high on the Coyotes' offense overall and think they could make some serious noise if not for their patchwork defense.

4:13

Fantilli could certainly be in there, too. I just can't see a world where Bedard doesn't run away with the thing. He's just too good.

Pawtucket

4:14

Does Matt Wolf get a legit chance in Calgary? He's been the AHL goalie of the year back to back years...

Josh Erickson

4:16

Dustin's ready. I'm honestly pretty surprised they haven't moved Vladar – it's not like Wolf has anything else to prove. I get they want him to earn a spot, but I'd argue he has already. I could see them potentially waiving Vladar if Wolf can truly outperform him in camp – we've seen more surprising waiver placements pre-season. Given they haven't moved Vladar, though, Wolf will have to clearly demonstrate he's the better backup option for a team looking to win.

ray

4:17

Do you have any idea why Arizona would draft 2 Russians in the 1st round, but pass on Michkov 6th when the others won't be nhl ready for years anyway ? thanks

Josh Erickson

4:18

Some teams simply weren't as high on Michkov notwithstanding the geopolitical climate, and it appears Arizona was one. There were some anonymous NHL scouts commenting they had concerns over his defensive game and consistency, and whether that would impede his ability to translate to North American ice.

Let me make it very clear I am not one of those people, and I believe Michkov was the second-best player available.

Phil

4:19

What does the upcoming Dahlin contract look like?

Josh Erickson

4:21

I agree with what Andrew Peters had said a few days ago, eight years with a $10.5MM AAV hits it right on the money for me. I don't think yesterday's Sanderson extension raises that mark much. Heck, Makar's making $9MM on a six-year deal signed just two years ago. The last D to sign a contract with an eight-figure cap hit was Karlsson in 2019.

4:22

And Dahlin deserves every cent of that money – I just don't think he'll win a negotiation for anything higher than that.

draft

4:24

How much weaker is the 2024 draft projected to be than the 2023 one ? I don't see why Chicago would trade a 2023 2nd rd pick for a 2nd in 2024 just to get an extra 6th and spread their picks.

Josh Erickson

4:25

It won't be much weaker, if any. Celebrini isn't quite Bedard-level at the very top, but otherwise, it tracks pretty similarly for me.

Guest

4:26

Your take on the new women's professional league.

Josh Erickson

4:27

I'm hopeful the backing gets more eyes on the game, for sure. I did some brief Minnesota Whitecaps coverage and the PHF product was good – I just hope some of those players are able to still find homes with all the former PWHPA players quickly taking up roles.

local guys

4:28

As a Minnesotan, did you ever watch Sam Rinzel or Oliver Moore live ? If so. what do you think of them ?

Josh Erickson

4:30

Haven't had the chance yet, I'm more of a recent West Coast transplant, but I plan on seeing them plenty this season. I believe Moore at 19 was one of the better value picks of this draft – it's no secret his skating is incredible, and I think he's a top-ten caliber talent. This season will be huge for Rinzel moving up to the college level to prove that he can keep his head above water. The ceiling's there, but it's hard to project an all-around game from high school showings. I wasn't blown away by his USHL performance in 2022-23.

Rob

4:31

What could Draisaitl’s next contract look like based on guys like Matthews’ contract?

Josh Erickson

4:31

This is an interesting exercise.

4:32

His deal's up in 2025. While it's not set in stone, the cap is projected to jump up to $87.5MM in 2024-25 and $92MM in 2025-26.

4:33

If he avoids a down season next year, I could easily see him quickly taking the highest-paid player mantle away from AM... unless McDavid/Oilers brass takes a hard stance at keeping his cap hit under Connor's.

4:34

But it wouldn't surprise me if he hit the $14MM mark.

Elvis Merzlikins

4:34

What are the chances of me finding my game this year under a presumed better system/D in front of me?

Josh Erickson

4:36

I think regardless of any changes to the team in front of you, you're due for a bounce-back season. You've been at absolute worst an average goalie across the three seasons predating last year. I'd expect a save percentage much closer to the .900 range this year – I think that'll be the biggest reason behind any ground Columbus gains in the standings.

Pawtucket

4:37

What do the Canucks need to go right to make the playoffs?

Josh Erickson

4:38

Thatcher Demko

4:39

That's pretty much the whole answer to the question. I think Beauvillier needs to have more of an impact – he was pretty good post-trade. If he can keep that up, that's a real top-six they've got going. They'll need him and Boeser both to step up to replace the inevitable massive goal-scoring regression from Kuzmenko.

And either Podkolzin or Höglander needs to have their breakout year.

4:40

It's not impossible, but still a rather uphill climb I believe. I see them around 89-91 points

NScotia

4:40

Top high end roster with 2 or 3 superstars and then fill in roster. OR a more balanced lineup top to bottom.

wreckage

4:41

Is Bedard generational? or just a teir below?

Josh Erickson

4:41

Oops, approved the next two accidentally