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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:01

Hey everyone, thanks for coming out!!

d_i

1:04

True or false. Nick Kurtz has a case to be labeled the best hitter in baseball?

Paul Sporer

1:06

Oh he's gotta be a part of the conversation for sure. Count me among those who had concerns about his K% coming into this year but when you add 8 pts of BB% (and even shave 3 pts of K%), it's a totally different situation. The power was already covering the Ks to a degree but the OBP is now such a force. I thought the K% would sting more as BABIP regressed, but he's up to .389!! That's not just Sacramento, either: .400 Home/.380 Road

cjsarpon

1:06

Is it time to move on from Palencia? Elbow inflammation could be a long stint, IL spots are tight, wasn’t getting opps, and in a 4-5 point dogfight for saves (SVs only league). Yates, Webb, Theilbar, Santillan best SVs options on wire.

Paul Sporer

1:09

Yeah I'm OK moving on from Palencia. Not pitching well enough when healthy to think he's a must-hold in any capacity

Your Pal Al

1:09

Two-part question — 10-team AVG/OBP/SLG/H/BB/HR/NSB league.

I spent serious draft capital on Austin Riley and Luke Keaschall hoping to lock down 3B and 2B. Instead, I’ve had to burn valuable roster spots chasing production while benching both of them, and IL hits to my SPs have only made it worse. Should I try to package Riley and Keaschall for starting pitching and roll with Royce Lewis, Matt McLain, Antonacci, and Gelof to rotate through 2B/3B (rank)?

Also, what FAAB % should I reserve for therapy?

Paul Sporer

1:11

I like pivoting off them for the options you have, namely Royce Lewis being a huge favorite of mine when healthy (that's always an unknown that leans light, unfortunately). Probably won't get a stud in a trade for them, but can likely scare up at least a Team Streamer with some upside. Plus, with OBP mattering, Antonacci gets a nice boost!! (though I guess it's mitigated by his SLG being so meh)

smitty100

1:11

Who would you rather have ROS in 12 team mixed with QS instead of W: Lodolo or Jared Jones?

Paul Sporer

1:15

While pasted again today, I lean Lodolo between the 2 as I think he's got the better QS upside if he can get things figured out. Just don't think the Pirates are going to push Jones that much right now

Brandon Schuller

1:15

Konnor Griffin's elbow. How concerned should we be?

Paul Sporer

1:18

Definitely some concern, but news has been solid that he could be back before the break. I wouldn't preemptively move off him anywhere

d_i

1:18

Gelof a top 10 2b/2b ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:22

He can be around there. He's 9th now and no doubt better than that at home only. Whether he holds the full season top 10 will likely come down to his AVG. He's putting a big burden on his home AVG (.241 road) and I suspect it'll give a bit from the .286, but the HR/SB production is enough to keep very desirable. Though I say that with the single worst AVG team constructed in NFBC history, so maybe I need to start paying more attention to it and not slough off the AVG drag that guys like Gelof can be (.225 xBA, if that's a stat you like)

seymour114

1:22

How legit is Bryce Eldridge? Is a swap for Ben Brown fairly even?

Paul Sporer

1:25

I say yes on the trade being fair. Two upstart potential studs for one another. Neither without risk and both with tremendous upside. As for Eldridge specifically, he's riding high with the .382 BABIP that will likely come down, but I don't think it craters and his power is legit. SF is a tough park, but not at all impossible, espec. with pop like his.

priewer

1:25

How much longer can Wrobleski kept it going?

Paul Sporer

1:32

Well we've started to see the regression starts with 2 Duds (5+ ER outings) and a spiritual Dud at PIT (4.7 IP/4 ER) in his L7 but 4 absolute gems surrounding them still has him with a 2.72 ERA. He was immaculate through the first 6 but we knew these Duds would pop up.

His K% is up to 20% in that run, but that shows you how bad it's been bc 20% still stinks, lol. Barring a real increase in missed bats, I think we'll see things more in line w/these L7. It does put a lot of pressure on the non-Duds to be damn near perfect but even if those regress into some baseline QS, he's still ALWAYS a strong W bet.

NicklePickers

1:32

Am I too in on these Pale Hose rookies? Somehow I’ve got Antonacci, Braden M and Jacob Gonzalez (and Shultz on my IL) in my AL only OBP league. Do you see them panning out?

Paul Sporer

1:33

They carry standard rookie risk but I have no problem relying on that group. Much shorter leash w/Gonzalez v. the other two for the rookie doldrums hit, but Ant and Braden are really fun, espec. in OBP as I mentioned earlier re: Ant.

NicklePickers

1:33

Is it time to forget the underlying numbers and just start JT Ginn, even in SacTown? I keep sitting him and he keeps doing great.

Paul Sporer

1:36

Why not just use him as a road-only guy for now? 1.99 ERA/0.79 WHIP on the road; 3.93/1.58 at home. The skills are great on the road, too, so no need to ignore: 20% K-BB!

CT9

1:39

Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Are you holding Maikel Garcia in 12 team roto provided there’s an adequate replacement? Not much power or SBs this year, now nursing a hand injury that’ll nag RoS. The approach is there, but the results are frustrating

Paul Sporer

1:44

He's the kind of guy I'm inclined to hold, but I admit that I can sometimes hold too long in the medium/shallower formats. This is the tough part about AVG-reliant players bc he's objectively not that far off his numbers but a 20 pt in AVG for our purposes REALLY stings, espec. paired w/the relative power outage. Stepping back, it's one big year (2024 was SB-only) for a volume accumulator, which isn't the best profile the shallower you go. I think I might look at potential replacements and be a big more proactive here. Who's available?

Robert

1:44

Got a league mate trying to talk me into what I'm sure is a lousy trade. Keeper (two round inflation) 12 team (where SPs plays like a 10) points league with no K penalty . He wants my James Wood (19 next year) best hitter under league rules, Hunter Goodman (15), Hunter Brown (7) for his Miz (1) best pitcher under league rules, Mookie Betts (no keep), Kyle Tucker (no keep), Liam Hicks (no keep).

Bad deal right?

Paul Sporer

1:45

It's not offensive bc it includes Miz but it's a full no-go. Just too much to give and in a deal stud-for-stud like Wood-for-Miz, I always prefer the hitter.

smitty100

1:45

Just a real quick follow up: roughly what do you expect from Lodolo ROS in terms of ERA, WHIP, K?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Honestly it depends on his health. I wonder if the blister is cropping back up and causing issues. It was NOT a good start today, but he did get into the 5th despite the struggles so they didn't pull him at the first sign of trouble which is at least somewhat encouraging? But I think he's a mid 4.00s w/a sub-1.25 WHIP if healthy and could churn out some QS. I'm not thrilled w/anything he's got going right now, but I don't think he just lost the ability to miss bats so if/when right, that 10% SwStr should surge.

1:50

I wouldn't go out chasing him or anything

Your Pal Al

1:50

Thanks, Paul! I think Keaschall's trade value might be dead, but thoughts on trying to package Riley with Wrobleski as an offer for Luzardo? K,ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, QS

Paul Sporer

1:51

Agreed on Keasch. I like this way of trying to upgrade Wrobo. Totally fair offer, espec. if the opposing manager buys into Riley having some upside juice

bill furlong

1:51

Lodolo looks sooo, sooo baaaad. And his slouching posture and dejected demeanor have me relieved that I don’t have him on any of my rosters. Wooo! Hooo!

Paul Sporer

1:52

I didn't get to see him today, but I can imagine it's bc he knows he's better than this. Hopefully he can work his way through it.

bill furlong

1:52

Your thoughts on stashing DJ Herz?

Paul Sporer

1:52

League size?

bill furlong

1:52

I just traded Vlad and Louis Castillo for Mason Miller. Whadayathink?

Paul Sporer

1:52

I dig it! Really solid deal

Mike

1:52

are you excited and/ or rostering any of the latest call ups (Carrigg, B. Montgomery, Crews)? would you be rostering any in a 12 team league?

Paul Sporer

1:56

Yes! I'm not out on Crews long-term, but definitely looking closer at Braden Montgomery and Cole Carrigg in this group. Braden is one of my favorite prospects in the game so I am partial to him but he's not that far ahead of Carrigg, who is playing daily for Colorado. If you need more speed, I can see favoring Carrigg, but just overall production it's Monty, Carrigg, Crews for me

Mike

1:57

Whats going on with Michael King? do you expect a rebound for the rest of the year?

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