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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:03

Hey y'all!! Thanks for coming out. Last big draft weekend coming up, I'll have a sizable SP rankings update coming. Likely tomorrow, no later than Friday AM.

Bria

1:03

Do you have any long term health concerns about Crochet?

Paul Sporer

1:06

Not any more than every SP which is to say yes, I do, it's just not actionable. Knowing that literally every pitcher can and at some point almost certainly WILL break leaves me focused way more on skills over health. Obviously, guys currently dealing with injuries, freshly back them, or with an extensive history of them carry extra risk, but there is no such thing as a safe pitcher, so gimme the best skills. (This doesn't mean stacking Rodon, Snell, Cole on a team, but rather not eschewing a more talented but higher injury risk guy for a lesser talented guy and the myth of safety)

Matt

1:06

Joined a league with a FAB this year for the first time - I'm usually in Ottoneu/dynasty world. How do you recommend approaching FA? I'm usually VERY active on the wire, so will try as many $0 bids as possible, but how should I think about allocating my dollars? Is it mostly impact call-ups?

Paul Sporer

1:07

Yeah impact call-ups and injury replacements. Spamming the mid and lower tier bids is usually the better option v. the big budget players. Rarely do the triple-digits really deliver. Doesn't mean you NEVER go for 'em, but be very smart about when to take that shot.

Chuck

1:07

How high would you go on Palencia in a 6x6 format with saves and holds separate cats?

Paul Sporer

1:10

What do the stud closers go for? I'd say 2/3rds of their pricing? I usually pay for SVs, but in SOLDs lgs, I don't go as hard paying up and would rather run more toward the HD studs. That said, the WBC got me really amped for Palencia. I didn't really see him much last yr and holy smokes, he's electric.

1:11

Hey Paul,

Paul Sporer

1:11

Hi!

Sean miller

1:11

What’s getting in the way of drake Baldwin getting mvp votes this season?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Team success which anyone who has followed me for a long time knows I hate as a consideration for the MVP bc that makes an individual award into a team one, but if they go sub-.500 again, I'm not sure he'll get any downballot love unless he just has a HUGE season (.290/30/100 type beat)

Greg

1:15

Hey Paul - I have to throw one of these back in a keep forever league. The round they can be kept forever is the number behind them. Who are you throwing back? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zach Neto (3), Kyle Tucker (5), Bobby Witt (8), Samuel Basallo (9), Chase Burns (11), Bryce Harper (15), George Kirby (15), Austin Riley (25), Yordan Alvarez (25), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Tarik Skubal (25), Logan Webb (25), Cole Ragans (25), Kevin McGonigle (25), Trey Yesavage (25).

Paul Sporer

1:18

I adore Yamamoto, but it's gotta be him. You can afford a luxury item like that w/your amazing late keepers so you could keep him over Basallo but I think I'd just keep all but Yama and see what's available in the 1st round

1:21

Need a Seiya replacement, roto. considering Wallner, Canzone, J Lowe, and Benge. Who you taking?

Paul Sporer

1:29

Maaaannnn, Seiya sabotaged again! It feels like we keep coming up just shy of a full scale breakout. 32 HR/103 RBI was amazing last yr as he finally stayed healthy but then his AVG weirdly cratered to .245 (career .278 coming into '25). Injuries clipped him at the start of 2023 and then 2 wks into 2024 keeping those seasons under 140 gms apiece. I want to combine those 2023-24 skills w/2025's power for 150! Anyway, this PCL strain is seen as relatively positive news since it could've been worse but it's still a bummer. Anyway, I'd look toward Canzone/Wallner as replacements. They should fill in the power nicely. Benge is a high upside wildcard, but since you need this player to replace Seiya at the outset of the season, I'd lean toward the more experienced players, especially bc they can also be impact players themselves

Justin M.

1:29

Hi Paul - I've decided to draft hitters by Z-Contact % and pitchers by 2025 innings pitched. Any issues with this approach?

Paul Sporer

1:31

I love to give Justin hell at times for citing those a lot but those are great foundational principles! I stiiiillll have to give him a hard time, though

Larry

1:31

What kind of long term power projection do you view for Jackson Merrill? My league doesn't care about steals at all and really values power, so I'm not sure how to view him.

Paul Sporer

1:37

There's 30+ upside at fruition. We saw him pack a punch with 24 in his rookie season so I'm not suggesting that 30+ is some grand prediction, but I definitely think he can live in that range in his health seasons and if you're living in a 23-27 range, then you're a few friendly wind gusts and perfectly placed hits in the right park(s) from 32-33.

Jane

1:39

Hi Paul, In 14-team h2h 5x5, can you please choose two SPs, one RP for saves, and one infielder? Thank you!
Zebby, Weiss, May, Barco, Kay, Hancock Yates, O’Brien, Sewald Gorman, J. Ortiz, Cronenworth, Josh Jung

Paul Sporer

1:46

SP: Kay/Weiss (I like both guys coming back from KBO – I lean Kay unless you’re worried about Ws), Hancock (vying for 5th w/elite Spring [36% K-BB in 11 IP], but opens w/NYY), May (has a role and will have bouts of success but still not seeing enough swing & miss to be impact), Zebby/Barco (interesting 6s but not breaking camp)

RP: Yates, Sewald, *gap* O’Brien

INF: Gorman, J. Ortiz (he busted last yr, but I’m still a fan and like him as a reserve – Gorman just has more fantasy juice for H2H w/his HRs), Cronenworth, Josh Jung

1:50

I forgot it was 2 SP when I was writing that up, so gimme 1 of the KBOers and Hancock. I haven't researched his Spring to see if there's something driving the big numbers, but a 36% K-BB is awesome. And K-BB is one of the handful of ST stats that can have some juice

Tim

1:51

Not to spoil anything from your upcoming pieces, but where are you on Reid Detmers, especially in larger leagues (14+)?

Paul Sporer

1:56

Talent at the price (291 ADP in L9 Main Events) is still right for me.

Paul Sporer

1:58

By the way, I should also mention my excitement at Mike Maddux's arrival as the pitching coach in LAA now.

Guest

1:56

Is Parker Messisk worth a stash( own him now) if he gets sent down? 12T mixed deep roto

Paul Sporer

1:57

Probably not. If you've got like 10+ reserves, I can see it, but otherwise go for someone in the bigs and keep tabs on Messick in preparation for his inevitable recall.

Baseball!

1:58

Cole Young!!!

Spring stats: 141 WRC+, 4HR, 3SB, 95EV (with a 114 max last year), 54% hard hit, 9.7% barrel, solid plate discipline

Last year ZIPS had him as #7 prospect --- so this isn’t coming from nowhere.

Am I crazy for being super excited? Looks like all the pieces of a real breakout.

Paul Sporer

2:05

I'm a little surprised he hasn't caught more hype as a late round pick. I know there were valid concerns of empty production based on his MiLB record, but if we're seeing a power breakthrough, all of sudden there's something here because the playing time is in hand. SB attempts is another valid Spring indicator and so even just his 3 in 15 gms could be indicative that he can return to his 2023-24 levels of 20 SBs. Even if he were to catch on a late-draft season helium guy, I doubt he'd become cost-prohibitive. He's only even gone in 4 of the L9 Main Events.

Ace

2:06

Too high if my expectation for Chase Burns is SP1? How worried are you of mechanics being questioned?

Paul Sporer

2:08

For this year? Yes. For career, no, that's on the table with that kind of arm talent. As to worry, I'd say extremely. Throwing both that hard and that violently making feel like a total "when" not "if" in terms of severe injury. The gift is the curse when it comes to the standout velos unfortunately.

Sahil

2:08

O/U 25 HR and 25 SB for Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio this season?

Paul Sporer

2:14

Not only is that firmly on the table for both, but I'd say it's close to their projection meaning both could really go 30+ both ways. These are two of the most dynamic guys in the game and we definitely haven't seen the best from either, IMO. Langford feels downright cheap at pick-44 is the Main Event. I'm surprised he's not right there w/Chourio in the early-20s

Trio

2:14

I drafted Tyler O’Neill, Cags, & Caissie in a deep 12-team league. Workable set of starting OF’s???

Paul Sporer

2:16

Triple Spiderman meme all pointing at each other. I don't mind it as a starting trio but I doubt all three fully click. They are that same high upside power-focused profile with a lot of whiffs that bring the volatility. I think one of these will be a star for you and one will be a full-on bust. Identifying which though is very difficult. I'd rank 'em Cags-TON-Caissie

2:16

As always thanks for doing these Paul! What % probability do you give Mick Abel making the rotation out of camp? I believe he’s the one with options still and Zebby does not. Can you give us any glimpse into where you’ll have Abel in tomorrow’s rankings?

Paul Sporer

2:20

Abel is zipping up the board with a fresh write-up in the update. Both he and Lord Zebulon have 2 opties so thankfully he won't get caught up in the numbers game. As such, I think he's all but locked. Simeon Woods Richardson is out of options which likely locks him and pushes Zebby to AAA to start.

Opening Day

2:20

Any official word yet on McGonigle, and/or Marcelo Mayer making the opening day rosters?

Paul Sporer

2:25

Nothing yet, but I'm still drafting both at their prices as neither is terribly expensive. Mayer is nursing a knee but did play on the backfields a couple days ago. I'm just not sure how the Tigers could tell themselves McGonigle isn't one of the best 26 on a team that's now made the playoffs two yrs in a row and has their ace in his walk year. I don't think it's hyperbolic to suggest that it's malpractice for the Tigers to not have McGonigle leading off in San Diego on Opening Day. He's their first potential legit OBP asset in like a decade!

Coffee is for Closers

2:25

Thoughts on Uribe, and handcuffing W.Vest for my K.Jansen? I feel Uribe could lead the Brewers in saves easy, and Vest is quality insurance of any Kenley hiccups.

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