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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:07

Hey everyone, thanks for coming out!

Insert Witty Name Here

1:07

Oof Kirby just doesn’t have it this year. Easy buy low next year right?

Paul Sporer

1:13

He had "it" for a bit and I absolutely thought elite Kirby was all the way back. After a few hiccups in his 2 starts off the IL, he put together a 3.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP/19% K-BB in 16 starts with just 1 Dud (at NYM, too, so it was understandable). Since then he has a mega-Dud at TBR (2 IP/7 ER) and then a real blah start last night (4 IP/3 ER/2 BB)... it could just be a couple tough ones and he closes strong or he's sputtering to the finish line after missing a month to injury.

I don't know which it is and I understand being scared of another Dud, but I can't pass the LAA start this weekend. If that is another meh-to-bad outing, then we reassess for at HOU next week and maybe tighten the reins in shallower formats. As for next year, yes I will take ANY discount on him. I still fully believe in him long-term (and haven't lost my faith this yr... just open to ppl being cautious if they're ratio protecting).

Weird1@Portland

1:13

What are the chances that Cam Smith is a starting OF for HOU next year?

Paul Sporer

1:21

Quite high I'd think. I know it hasn't gone as well as fantasy folks were hoping when his price was rising in Spring Training (his 256 Main Event ADP wasn't egregious, though), but he's been alright in his rookie season considering he made a position change and broke camp after 32 MiLB games!! A 90 wRC+ at age-22 under those circumstances isn't bad, especially as the defense has seemed to work out well, too (plus defender by all the popular metrics).

Jesús Sánchez in left, Jake Meyers or new player in center, Cam in right and Yordan at DH seems like the answer to me. Perhaps we get word that the Astros found Smith to be overmatched and thus start him in AAA, but if that were the case then I'd think he'd just already be there now so I really think he has to be in their plans to start 2026 and I'll be buying. I'd be surprised if he eclipses this year's ADP despite now having an MLB year under his belt so I'll gladly pay something outside Top 250 for him.

1:22

OK so the queue was light initially so I was going for real deep-dive answers but it's filling up so I'll mix in some of the quick-hitters, too. I know it's late-season and many have turned their attention either to just playoff baseball of their real team or handegg so chat volume can be sporadic but we've got a nice queue goin' now!

Dave

1:24

Should Noelvi Marte be drafted as a starter in 12-team mixed leagues next year?

Paul Sporer

1:26

If he's slated for everyday burn, I'd say so. I know he's sputtering down the stretch here, but I like a lot of what we've seen this year and I'll be buying him anywhere next yr

Weird1@Portland

1:26

Is Lance McCullers worth stashing for next year?

Paul Sporer

1:26

Probablyyy not. I like McCullers so I really want him to get all the way back, but the upside just isn't there to keep at age-32 next yr

Guest

1:26

roto team is fading fading fading and it sucks. (the funniest stat is being tied for the lead in runs when September started and now trailing by 41.)

this obviously depends on the wire, but who are the most droppable 1-2 of: Ward Teoscar Muncy Altuve Nimmo Salvy Barger

Paul Sporer

1:27

41?!?!?!?!?!? IN 10 DAYS??!?!?!

1:33

1:36

OK so I made that chart there and it's sorted by wRC+ and the timeframe is since July 1st. Now obv we're not just going down to the bottom and cutting the lowest number automatically. If it's runs I'm after, probably 1 of the Dodgers and Salvy are the most cuttable I think... maybe Ward given the weak hitters behind him in LAA

41 in 10 days!

1:36

13-16-10-6-13-5-6-3-8 vs. 5-8-5-3-6-3-3-0-6

Paul Sporer

1:37

And I know it seems to weird to cut a Dodger when you need ANYTHING, but my thinking is that one of Teo/Muncy has to be hitting in the bottom half and we're kinda splitting hairs w/the options here so batting order might be enough to get one of them clipped

Salty

1:38

For those in dollar days, both MIA and LAA make a nice late visit to Colorado next week. Depending on league depth, there might be some fun cheap finds for three games worth of fantasy goodness in games that truly don't matter.

Paul Sporer

1:40

LOOOOVE little tips like this. I'm all about those extra couple percentage points of an edge. They're hard to find in the online game of fantasy since the info is everywhere. So now getting ahead is literally the best way to get ahead which is to say picking up guys a week BEFORE their 2-start or their trip to a great park.

Of course there is risk w/the 2-start gambit bc schedules can change, but in the case of this Coors visit for the Angels/Marlins, that's on the books no matter what so you can start trying to scoop some gems for that now if you can afford to stash for the extra week

Willie Mays Hayes

1:40

Do you think we will see a work stoppage before the 2027 season? Any hope for a pre-strike agreement?

Paul Sporer

1:41

I've come to expect the worst from the negotiations these days, unfortunately

Thornton Melon

1:42

If Eury Perez struggles again tonight vs Nats, is he droppable in 12 teamers? He's set to pitch @COL, @TEX, and vs Mets the rest of the way. I'm in a really tight battle in ERA/WHIP right now. If I dropped him, I'd probably use the spot for streamers.

Paul Sporer

1:44

Absolutely and frankly w/that schedule, he might be droppable even if he's fine tonight. At the very least, he's no longer a must-start regardless of what he does tonight given that upcoming schedule w/the Coors and Mets starts definitely skippable for those protecting against the Dud outing

Weird1@Portland

1:44

In a two catcher league is the combo of Dingler and Teel (sounds like a comedy duo) one of the best? Is Kyle Higashioka better than either?

Paul Sporer

1:44

I used to listen to Dingler and Teel on 96.7 The Crotch FM when I was in college

1:46

Crazy that both of their sons became MLB players... and I am inclined to stick w/both of them over Higgy

Pal

1:46

Hi Pal, best streamers this weekend? Cavalli vs PIT, Cecconi vs CWS, Elder vs HOU or any others you can think of?

Paul Sporer

1:48

Haven't checked the schedule yet, but I like those 3 in the order you've listed them w/much more interest in Cavalli and Cecconi than Elder. I should have a weekend board up that's either Fri-Sun or Sat-Sun so look for that on Friday!

Salty

1:48

Paul - have there been any no-hitters this year? I can't remember any so far, and Yamamoto's near one in Baltimore made me think of it.

Paul Sporer

1:49

ZERO! Makes the Yamamoto starter even crazier!!

Guest

1:49

two straight years where i've either been spectacularly mismanaging my SVH relievers, or been spectacularly unlucky with them. it doesn't matter how much I look at projections, recent performance, or good matchups, their season numbers end up way better than what I actually get from them in the team log. do I just need to pick my group by May and stick with them the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer

1:51

Yes I think perhaps sticking with a group longer is the way to go. This is definitely a SVHD lg pitfall I've run into where I'm always swapping out a guy or two and chasing the next big thing but I too infrequently kept anyone around long enough to start amassing SVHD before jumping to the next flavor of the month. All your same metrics and strategies are likely identifying quality guys, but just give them longer to succeed and don't be so eager to chase the next big thing.

Idiotic Failson

1:52

I sometimes get hung up on prospect grades, feeling like I don't want to bail too early on guys. That said, Dustin May is terrible, right? Like, there's no reason to roster him in a keeper league? Or is there a possibility that maybe after a year of shaking off injuries and changing scenery he'll find something?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I'm big on prospect pedigree, too, and I think there's plenty of value in it. But yes, the downside is clinging to a guy too long because of what we thought he'd become as a prospect. And in the case of May specifically, he usually does just enough to consistently tease & tantalize fantasy managers back into rostering him, lol. But yeah, I'm all the way out. I would need to see some measure of consistent bat-missing to revisit him and by then, someone else will have scooped him after the first good start.

So in short, I'm out and willing to miss out on any sort of development bc I refuse to jump at a small sample anymore w/him.

missing wheeler

1:55

h2h points semifinals this week, need to start 2 of the following: Soriano (vMIN), Scherzer (vBAL), Cavalli (vPIT), or Bergert (@PHI). have top waiver priority as well so Peterson (vPHI) or Kolek (@CLE) are also options on the wire.

Paul Sporer

2:03

Sorry to hear about Wheeler. Those of you losing him and/or Eovalid just before the playoffs is a nightmare. From this group, I'm liking Max and Cavalli as the 2. Peterson is close, but I prefer Cavalli's cushy matchup so if I were to pivot to Peterson, it'd be for Max. Sori has the best K-BB and I still like him long-term, but he's a WHIP killer and very scary to trust here

2:04

Guest

2:04

Do you anticipate reaching for Marsee next year or are you not a believer? I could see him go in the top 40 outfielders next year.

Paul Sporer

2:13

I'm a huge Marsee stan so I will contribute to him going in the Top 40. The 40th OF off the board this year was Victor Robles on the heels of a 2-month super run w/SEA. Marsee only has 38 gms to Robles' 77 and won't catch up even playing every game the rest of the way (17 gms left for MIA), but it feels like a pretty similar situation of an upside power-speed guy being drafted as much on spec as the small sample of production. He has legit skills and should have a full-time role on lock

2:13

Was everyone wrong about Jordan Walker? He looked decent as a 21 year old but since then, oof. his OPS has dropped from .787 to .574. Still only 23 so I don't think you give up on him, but man did STL just bring him up before he was ready and the league figure him out and he hasn't been able to adjust or what?

Paul Sporer

2:18

This goes back to me being someone who cares about pedigree and as such, it will be tough to fully quit Jordan Walker for another yr or two given how young he is as you mention. Maybe he needs the classic change of scenery and maybe he was just overrated, but I do think we're another 300-400 PA away from that being decided.

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