JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Return to

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:07

Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Chad

1:07

Tell me about Lawrence Butler. Top ___ hitter next year?

Paul Sporer

1:07

150? I'm excited, but don't wanna get drunk on hype

Greg

1:09

Keep one for next year - Bichette, Sandy Alcantara, Springs, Woo, Gausman.

Paul Sporer

1:13

I'm inclined to run with Woo there. Sandy is out bc he's returning from TJ, even if we agree Bichette is better than his 2024 washout, I'm still not sure he ever nabs 20+ SBs again, and then w/Woo-Springs-Gausman, i just prefer Woo the most there even w/some of the health issues he has experienced so far

Kate

1:18

Do we know why Masyn Winn has kind of stopped running midseason? Is this injury related?

Paul Sporer

1:18

Could be an injury that is enough to slow him down but not take him off the field. Always tough with those situations

1:18

Time to move on from Adolis Garcia ? A Couple of hot bats available : Nootbaar, Moniak, Grichuk.... Deep 12T Mixed Daily Roto

Paul Sporer

1:22

Yeah if you think someone can better help you in the standings, almost anyone if free game to cut in September

1:24

and I know was vehemently against Adolis the last couple yrs only to have it blow up in my face, so I'm not gonna take a victory lap years later.... I will just say that the plate skils we've seen this year - 27% K/7% BB - were the same in 2022 and a key driver behind my distrust of him as a stud. he spiked to 10% BB rate last yr which really helped mitigate the issues of his K rate. we've no doubt seen the best of Adolis at this juncture, but that doesn't mean he's no longer draftable especially bc the price will no doubt sink for 2025

Nicholas

1:25

Who do you like more for the next 3-4 years Bobby Miller or Jared Jones in a points league that prioritizes QS?

Paul Sporer

1:26

Undoubtedly a rough year for Miller, but I'm sticking w/him. I still believe there's ace upside for a healthy Bobby Miller. He was decidedly not that this year, but I think it'd be foolhardy to run away from him entirely based on this season. Jared Jones isn't far behind but even if the talent levels are close, the team context favor Miller massively

Kate

1:27

Do you think Xavier Edwards will keep running wild coming off injury? Or will the SBs be a little more limited the rest of this year?

Paul Sporer

1:29

If that back issue is fully healed, I think he gets back to running. The tough part is we just don't know for sure. That said, I instantly put him back into my lineup yesterday

Kave Dingman

1:29

I'm the Commissioner of a Fantrax auction league. And my personal team's draft/auction suffers every year due to having to act as Commish during the draft. Do you have any tips, tricks or strategies to deal with both roles?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Totally understand that. Anyway to delegate the during-auction duties to someone the league can trust just for that period so you can focus on the auction that day and not be torn in different directions? Alternately, are there commish duties that take place on Auction day that could be handled beforehand so you can focus?

Tim

1:31

Is Nico Hoerner a candidate for rebound next year? I’d like to think he could return to 285 with 35-40 steals, as he’ll still only be 28 and should retain 2b/SS eligibility

Paul Sporer

1:34

Yes, that's still in the cards for sure. He's just BABIP-dependent guy and even high contact guys like him will suffer the vagaries of BABIP as we've seen with his .282 this yr. I'm inclined to buy the dip next year if the price drops as I expect

Colton

1:34

Drink the Butler, Rooker, Bleday, Langeliers kool-aid. They're playing in a little league park next year, I'm going to roster all of them in my dynasty lol

Paul Sporer

1:36

Justin and I have been discussing that on some recent pods. I did have a good convo with someone suggesting they could crank up a humidor for Sacramento to mitigate some of the offense there, but even with a Coors-esque humidor, I think we will undoubtedly see bigger offense from Oakland next yr. I'm a fan of all 4 of those A's, btw!

1:36

crazy thought, is Adley droppable ? playoff time now and Langliers, Wells, Alvarz & Del Castillo are all available free agents

Paul Sporer

1:38

Yes, he has been a complete disaster in the 2H --- .209/.286/.310 w/2 HR in 147 PA. I'm fine making a move. Will Smith might be there too with a .203/.300/.352 line w/8 HRs in 263 PA since June 1st!

Kate

1:39

David Peterson has been on a roll lately. Do you see anything new there or is this just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer

1:44

You know I never want to just point to BABIP and say a guy has been lucky or unlucky bc even the luckiest BABIP contains some skill from the player in question. During this 7-start run of 1.81 ERA for Peterson, it isn't just BABIP, but the 32 pt drop from his first 10 starts is no doubt playing a big role. That said, he has also nearly doubled his K-BB rate from 7% to 13%, the gains mostly being driven by his BB% rate improving. So Peterson is doing things to fuel this run, but he hasn't been like say, Bowden Francis, who looks like a stud while toting a minuscule ERA

Kate

1:45

Have the As found a legit starter in Osvaldo Bido?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I'm gonna copout a little and say I won't really know until I can fully deep dive in Oct when I start the outline of my SP rankings, but he has been a stonecold stud down the stretch and barring a collapse, I don't see him leaving the rotation the rest of the way given this expected schedule: DET, at CHW, at CHC, TEX

Guest

1:47

the Triple-A season ends 1 week before the MLB season. would you ever expect teams to give a top guy that short a cup of coffee with just 28 spots?

Paul Sporer

1:48

Yes, that can and will happen. Identifying exactly who is damn-near impossible bc you can see cases of the crummy team letting a prospect get a taste to reward their good season and give the fans something to be excited and cases of the stud team calling up a prospect bc they can use them as they fight for a playoff spot and/or seeding... but yes, I can def see some guys coming up late to get that 7-10 days

Guest

1:48

if you had to make the decision now, how many X's would Ryne Nelson get against the Stros?

Paul Sporer

1:50

3! He is dialed in right now and has played himself into an all-formats monster thanks to a 2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.3 K/BB ratio (was just pulling off a different site that didn't have K% or BB% so just went w/the K/BB ratio) in 75 IP

Kate

1:50

Have the Astros done it again with Arrighetti (i.e. made a meh prospect into a legit MLB SP)?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I think so, yes. I was keyed in on him during Spring Training bc Houston didn't really have a ton of depth. Obviously I moved completely off him early in the season given how poorly he'd been pitching. In fact, I think it was his mega-dud against my Tigers where I was like ok he's just not ready yet. And he wasn't. But he soon would be.

I think his big gem v. COL game 2-3 starts later and since then he's been awesome for them. All of a sudden the Stros might have more than 5 viable SPs for the playoffs depending on JV's status. Arrighetti's season long numbers are still being hampered by the early struggles, too.

1:55

Time to move on from Randy? Cycle in hot bats? h2h categories playoffs

Paul Sporer

1:56

Yes, he's been rough w/SEA (and wasn't exactly great w/TBR, either, this year). It is now the time of year where ANYONE can be cut if they aren't directly helping your standings. Everything is about where you can gain that extra point or 2 to move up the standings

tumtum

1:56

park factors in sacramento suggests about the same for oakland collesium

Paul Sporer

1:57

Do they? As I understood it, the ball flies there given the weather and dimensions

1:58

Oh wow (this is 2023)