JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Return to

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:03

Welcome everyone, thanks for coming out!

Bob Pollard

1:03

Some regression is due, but how real is Ranger Suarez ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:05

I think it's more "the best of what his profile can do" than "tangible changes suggesting he's in line for a Cy Young-worthy season". The key to just how good the season will be is that BB rate. If he holds some of these gains all year, he can make a soft regression and then actually wind up as a downballot candidate, but if it's back to 8-9%, he'll likely spend the 2nd half in his familiar Team Streamer role

BTW, I owe y'all the SP rankings still. Couldn't get em 100% locked up before my trip last weekend so I'm reworking some guys (wait a day and things change, let alone 3-4) and will get 'em up this week. Sorry about that!

Guest

1:05

Bryan Woo or Brayan Bello?

Paul Sporer

1:06

They aren't too far apart at all in terms of talent. Woo has shown more swing-and-miss upside which gives him a slight edge in fantasy, but I'd probably just play the immediate schedules b/w those 2

Tony Taters

1:06

Trade Houck for Santander? (Houck's been my best pitcher, but I need power. AL only OBP league.)

Paul Sporer

1:13

Dang, Houck's only bringing back Santander in an AL Only? And I say that more as pro-Houck than anti-Santy. I think Santy's AVG will bounce back up and the power is already there, so he'll be fine. It's just that Houck looks like more a tangible breakout in comparison to say Ranger Suarez, who we just discussed. That splitter has helped combat lefties and he's commanding his whole arsenal, leading to a major BB improvement (-5 pts to 4%). Maybe I'm overrating him, but I thiiiink there's a big bat out there for him

Bradish

1:13

Bradish pulled in the 5th...

Paul Sporer

1:17

85 pitches. They are taking their time w/him for sure, which makes sense. It was 90 pitches last time out, so if they were thinking another 90 here, it doesn't make any sense to start the inning at 85. Gets a 2-step next wk so even if he's operating in a 90-pitch range at the high end, I'm still starting him (at STL, at CHW)

The Milk Man

1:17

Is Cowser washed? He's probably done more harm than good to us individuals so lucky to grab him. Seems like the Orioles have hit a roadblock with their 24 rookie class.

Paul Sporer

1:24

Ebbs and flows... that's the downside about picking up someone who was that ELECTRIC bc you knoooow it's coming down relatively soon. Even w/the comedown, he's got a 141 wRC+ on the season. I still like Cowser going forward. He'll start popping up on 10- and maybe even some 12-team wires but I'm riding it out. He could be a .750s OPS with pwr & spd from here on out and that's pretty valuable in all formats. Daulton Varsho has a .752 OPS w/7 HR & 4 SB and checks in as the 29th OF on our Player Rater.

Westburg is still toting a crazy high OPS+, too. Holliday didn't click immediately and Kjerstad really didn't get to play. I think they're still pretty happy with their rookie returns.

Guardians of the Galaxy

1:26

Florial, Freeman, or Manzardo (OBP league)

Paul Sporer

1:27

Tyler Freeman has the best play skills and is delivering some fantasy juice w/4 HR & 5 SB in 141 PA. He's leading off lately, too!

Guest

1:28

Any hope for Detmers or Civale? Thanks

Paul Sporer

1:40

Oh absolutely. Detmers has definitely been frustrating w/late runs tanking his recent starts. It's a 3rd-time-through (TTT) issue with his OPS jumping from .682 to .994 (compared to .806 TTT last yr). The problem is that he's barely making it 5 IP in these starts so if they have to start limiting his TTT to combat this, he could become a consistent sub-5 IP guy. That said, he remains firmly on my radar because if he can figure out that third time, he has major upside. He gets a 2-step next week at HOU and v. CLE and I'm starting him in 12s or deeper, but it's passable in 10s if you have a bevy of options.

Civale... man, I don't know. We love the K-BB spike since joining the Rays, but it's come w/a ton of HRs and crazy high BABIP rendering his ratios useless. All that said, I have a hard time getting away from him in a lot of formats. He's looked better in his last 2 and I'll probably give him the at TOR & v. KCR before making any cut decisions in 12s or deeper. 10s go at a quicker pace so I understand cuts

Not feeling Roz-y

1:40

How much longer can we keep putting R. Arozarena in starting fantasy lineups? Guy seems to have taken a big step back

Paul Sporer

1:44

It's been rough w/the slash line, but you've still got 8 HR and 7 SB salvaging some value. Seems like he's coming out of it here in May with his .220/.360/.634 -- I suspect the non-HR hits will start to fall and turn that .179 BABIP around (.200 during the May run). I'm not quitting Arozarena for a while.

bob

1:45

When is Seth Lugo's bubble going to burst or is he in a breakout season?

Paul Sporer

1:50

This is a clear case of trusting the ERA indicators. They tab him as the mid-3.00s ERA guy he has been so that's more or less how I see him. Now the question is - will he be the mid-3.00s guy from today forward with the great start banked yielding a fantastic career year orrr will he essentially "give back" that LOB%/BABIP run-hot and get his season numbers back to the mid-3.00s? Easy starts v. OAK and at TBR his next two times out and then we'll go from there

Michael's Hair is

1:50

Alright so Michael Harris has been so-so at best in my 10-teamer points league. He's like the 40-45 OF YTD. There are guys like Lamonte Wade, Doyle, and Varsho out there. Would you swap him out?

Paul Sporer

1:51

No, his upside is too rich to cut for that group

Bill

1:51

2 catcher league - Moreno was released. Would you drop K. Lee to get him? Thanks

Paul Sporer

1:56

I would, yes. I still really like Moreno. Lee has been solid, but even if they're close on AVG/HR/SB, Moreno gets the team context edge for R/RBI

De-Mize

1:56

I always fear a big hit after a fielding misplay, a la Mize giving up a homer after an infield single to Ibanez. But he's looked good since!

Paul Sporer

1:56

Especiallyyyyy when I'm watching a pitcher on my fantasy team lol

Steve

1:57

N. Marte (CIN) or J. Dominguez (NYY) - ROS? Dominguez back about 2 weeks earlier?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Yeah I'd lean toward Dominguez, but not a resounding win

Closers

1:57

Please rank for saves/studliness: Mason Miller, Romero, Munoz

Paul Sporer

2:03

Miller/Munoz/Romano --- Miller is just SOOO good and Oakland has actually been pretty competent giving a legit 8 SVs (9th-most). Munoz was last year's Miller (though Miller will get more SVs if he stays healthy) and while Stanek has gotten the occasional SV, he's the primary guy. Romano's had some bumps but he is the guy when healthy.

Swampguy

2:03

Been hanging on to Colt Keith in a 15 team roto 4x4, HR, RBI, SB and OPS league. Is it time to cut bait?

Paul Sporer

2:06

Yeah he's cuttable everywhere now. Keep him on the radar in case he comes around, but no need to hold

Steve

2:06

Are you trying to buy low on Gleybar Torres? What do you expect from him ROS?

Paul Sporer

2:09

We discussed him on the latest pod around 26:40 -- https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1296-sp...

2:09

is a foul tip considered a swinging strike in the fangraph data?

Paul Sporer

2:09

Yes, that is the discrepancy you will between us and other sites if the #s aren't aligning

Matt Damon

2:09

MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer

2:10

DATT. MAMON.

Re: The Milk Man

2:10

Luckily for Cowser, he's not as washed as Mullins right now...

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Paul Sporer hosts a chat