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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:06

Hello everyone! Happy New Year (cutting it close on the 10th day of the year, but I didn't do the chat last week so I'm going with it)!!

1:08

I'm close to finishing the SP ranks with commentary. I did the Catchers and Shortstops as well so it's taking a bit of time, but we didn't want to just throw a standard list-only post up before these came out. I know I've been promising SP rankings for a while, but they're v close.

Scott TINSTAAPP

1:08

Just started my first draft of the year, a slow DC...LFG

Paul Sporer

1:08

It's that time of the year!!!

Scott TINSTAAPP

1:09

Do you like Woo and do you have concerns about how he's virtually FB only?

Paul Sporer

1:12

I understand where that characterization comes from, but it is 3 distinct fastballs w/the 4-seamer, sinker, and cutter. And he has a slider and changeup that could improve. He's in the 50s for me part of a group called The Next Wave. I like him.

Kyle

1:12

Do you have a date for the SP rankings?

Paul Sporer

1:13

Tonight or tomorrow. I won't be able to write up everyone like the SS and C rankings before publishing, but I want to get another good handful written before publishing and then I will fill in more write-ups in the coming weeks both of guys I just didn't get to yet and then of course those who have their outlook change for whatever reason

Guest

1:13

Can Giolito and Cease find their groove again in new environments?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Absolutely. Fenway isn't some homer haven that will harm Giolito. He did just fine in Chicago when he was on and that's a hitter-friendly park. He needs to keep the ball in the yard and he can be a 10-team guy again. Cease is an easy buy for this year after the tough 2023. I'll take the discount. I certainly hope he's moved out of Chicago, but even if he not, I don't mind his post-100 ADP

Kyle

1:18

Will you make Justin own up to his ridiculous Elly-to-AAA recurring comment on S&tB when the season starts and Elly is playing at SS everday?

Paul Sporer

1:19

I mean, I don't rule out him possibly getting sent out during the season if he struggles like he did down the stretch last year. I don't think it's a super likely scenario, but it's on the table and a part of why I can't pay the Top 25 price tag.

tumtum

1:19

Lawrence Butler hasn't received much playing time in projections. He pushed Ruiz off the position after he was called up. It seems like a no-brainer candidate to start in CF, right?

Paul Sporer

1:22

Part of it is just being on the A's, but he also isn't in the Roster Resource starting lineup and while that doesn't mean he can't break camp w/the team, a lot of people use RR as their basis for rosters in the winter so that could be another reason why Butler isn't getting a lot of pub right now. He had a solid 2-level season at AA/AAA and if the A's do turn him loose, I'd be down to give him a look in deeper formats.

Tony

1:22

As both the SS and SP expert, what are your thoughts on me trading my $13 EDLC for a $22 Pablo Lopez? 16 team Ott h2h FG points, and elite SP is at a premium based on keepers

Paul Sporer

1:23

I can definitely co-sign that. Pablo is an absolute stud when upright and we've finally seen some health to be confident in (insofar as you can be confident in any pitcher's health which is of course not at all, lol)

Guest

1:23

You rocking the knitt stocking cap where you are today?

Paul Sporer

1:24

Yes, it's chilly here! About to get reallyyyyy cold next week, too. Not just Texas-cold, either, but actually cold

Guest

1:24

Hi Paul, what are expectations for the new pitchers coming in from the NPB? Quick adjustment period like Senga or good to go day 1?

Paul Sporer

1:28

It's usually a case-by-case basis but I generally have excitement for the guys coming over. I find I'm generally comfortable with their draft prices upon arrival so I've had more than my fair share of them on my teams in recent years. Yamamoto is tough because he's coming in at a PREMIUM price (Top 50 price), but the hype is very understandable so I might even end up with him in a league or two

tumtum

1:28

Sophomore slumps usually change people's perspectives and projections firmly. But often this is when production breakouts occur. How do you judge when to stay firm or not coming off a sophomore slump?

Paul Sporer

1:29

It usually depends what the makeup of the season was... did their skills collapse and they were just overmatched? Or did they have some normal regression paired with bad luck for a superficially bad season that is going to depress their price more than it should? That's mainly what I'm looking to figure out when investigating a soph. slump

1:30

Do you think there's a chance Jackson Merrill can force his way into the lineup in SD out of spring training? Maybe playing third or pushing Kim to third?

Paul Sporer

1:34

I wouldn't say never as we're in a different era with prospects, but it seems unlikely. He only has 46 gms at AA and it's not like he just tore up A+/AA last year, either. I'd be surprised if he could do enough to push them to that decision out of spring. Even Volpe, who essentially used a hot spring training run to force himself onto the roster, still had 22 gms at AAA and was a year older.

1:38

Think Burnes or Bieber get moved before the first half this season?

Paul Sporer

1:38

Yes, I think there's still a decent chance one or both are moved this winter

David Howell

1:38

Speaking of cold, how much is it worth downgrading outdoor northern-based hitters in drafts for their early-season cool-weather games nerfing their power production?

Paul Sporer

1:39

I don't usually go that deep, but maybe studying the schedule could take a guy or two down a few spots if they have a particularly difficult run of northeast/midwest gms early on and have consistently played poorly in cold weather. It'd be more of a tiebreaker than anything else

Guest

1:39

Oneil Cruz back at it on opening day or Bucs will proceed with caution?

Paul Sporer

1:40

He is fully recovered and I expect him to be the guy from day 1

Chickie

1:40

What’s your take on the crowded Cincy INF situation. Keep hearing India to somebody, but he’s still a Red Leg. CES going to get enough ABs to be keeper worthy?

Paul Sporer

1:41

I actually don't think they should make a trade. It's a pain for us fantasy dweebs, but it makes sense to have some depth. Obviously if they can get a legit arm for someone like India, I'd be open to exploring it, but I'm not of the mind that they must make a trade. The Candy move was weird from their standpoint, but I love it for him specifically

1:44

Imanaga really 'only' getting $15mil a year while Mets pay Manaea $14mil a year.

Paul Sporer

1:47

I don't see a huge issue w/that. Imanaga is a 30-yr old coming over from Japan so we just don't know exactly what to expect. Isn't his deal also longer than Manaea's? Can't just compared 1:1 on the annual if Imanaga's deal is 4 yrs v. the 2 for Manaea. That said, we don't know how many years yet so it might be 2 for each... even still, I don't think it's wild. Their projections aren't too far off.

Justin

1:48

Who is a player for you going very late that you think we could look back and say "man, how did we miss that" after what should be a 2024 breakout? For me, it's Henry Davis. #1 pick, absolutely destroyed AA and AAA, battled injuries and a bizarre "go play RF even though you've almost never done so" situation in the majors, potentially elite SB for the C position.

Paul Sporer

1:49

That's a good one and I can totally see a path to the full scale breakout for Davis and everyone would be kicking themselves for kind of ignoring a former #1 overall (not that that alone guarantees fantasy viability). For me, it'd be Alek Thomas. The playoffs probably ticked his price up a bit, but he's still post-300 and I totally see a baby Carroll in Thomas

brb... refilling my water

tumtum

1:58

Grayson Rodriguez's second-half performance was stellar, but at the cost of his strikeout rates. Do you see this sticking or will he boost his strikeouts?

Paul Sporer

1:58

No, I think he boosts the K rate while holding a lot of the 2H gains as he emerges into a stud

Guest

1:59

Do you know when the ATC and BAT projections will publish?

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