JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:02

Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Drew

1:03

Thanks for your time, hope you’re doing well

Paul Sporer

1:03

I am. The All-Star break was nice to get a little breather and gear up for the 2nd half

1:04

BTW, apologies for no SP chart today. Wasn't able to get it done last night and it would've been too late this morning by the time I could finish it. Thursday's will be up later tonight.

Guest

1:04

With Ozzie Albies doing so well, is there any scenario where he can improve his contract in the off-season? Could he threaten to go to Japan or sit out like an NFL running back?

Paul Sporer

1:06

No, I don't see anything like that. Obviously, it's an amazing under market deal, but if he's content with it and happy to be one of the best contracts in the game, then I'm not too worried about it. His value certainly helps w/signing all these deals, too, so if it ends up putting him on 2-3 WS winners, there's some value in that, too.

Drew

1:06

I’m totally with that! Although I admit my enthusiasm was dampened by Keller, Wu, Elder, Iglesias, and Puk all at once

Paul Sporer

1:07

The Tuesday Night Massacre was ROUUUGGHHH. I did not escape clean with Wells and Giolito going. Ober snuck a late W to soften the blow somewhat, but maaaan that was brutal. Kudos to you if you avoided it altogether or better yet, had some of the few gems from last night.

Joe

1:07

Suwinski or Josh Lowe ROS? 10 team OBP league.

Paul Sporer

1:08

Unless you're desperate for the SBs from Lowe, Suwinski's OBP gives him the edge here for me

Jim Leyland Palmer

1:08

Who is your drop in a 10tm 5x5: Jordan Walker, Starling Marte, Morel. Feel like maybe morel, but I like to keep a very short bench and he does bring value with all those positions. What do you think?

Paul Sporer

1:10

Morel is such a tough week-to-week play and I'd value him lower in H2H just for the headache of supreme volatility and with that he's the cut, especially in a 10-teamer where he or someone like him will be available on the wire. His highs are must-ride so this player type will usually wind up on a few teams in shallow league and if you can't wait for him to get hot again, he's the cut.

1:10

Cool to finally see Forrest Wall get the call. Can he carve out anything more than a bench role, or no room?

Paul Sporer

1:12

Hard to see where he carves out a ton of PT, but I'm definitely keeping tabs on him bc if he pops, it's another piece of Atlanta's lineup. I could maaaybe see speculating in a 15-team or deeper (45-49 in SBs at AAA), but nowhere else right now and even the 15-team scenario should be a reserve spot you can afford a true stash

Thomas

1:15

How would you rank the following for power potential balanced by propensity to crater my AVG? Torkelson, Eugenio, Teoscar?

Paul Sporer

1:21

Teo/Tork/Suarez -- it's really close with Teo & Tork. I love what Tork's doing lately but it's only been a month of really hitting vR and vL so I don't want to anoint him too quickly, nor do I want to bury Teo in a down month especially when he dropped a .949 OPS just last month

Sabey Sabes

1:21

Met my minimum IP on Sunday and benched my SPs until further notice. Healthy lead in in four pitching cats.

Paul Sporer

1:22

Love it! Did you have some of the Tuesday Massacre that would've merked you? It was tough to stay clean!

Scoob

1:22

Just got Taj Bradley in a trade in a keeper league. Huge discrepancy between his expected and actual statistics. How do you personally handle situations where reality and expected reality diverge so much? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

1:24

If I believe in their stuff as I do with Taj, I have a pretty wide range of starts w/them. I've cultivated a tinge of SP depth that has allowed me to skip some spots w/him but I'm still in on Bradley everywhere as at least a reserve. He has inconsistencies that lead to the big HR and H rates, but you're just not finding 23% K-BB rates on the waiver wire

AgeOfAwareness

1:24

I need one last SP to lineup my playoff plans. Am I good relying on one of Skubal or Woodruff or am I screwed? (12 team cat)

Paul Sporer

1:30

I like both rest of season. I know Skubal was knocked last night, but he's still looked great since his IL return. Woodruff is headed out on rehab and I'm excited for him to get back

Oilcan

1:30

How do you feel about Mickey Moniak ROS? I have Duran, Nootbaar as possible drops if necessary

Paul Sporer

1:33

He and Duran aren't that different, riding crazy BABIPs vR to some nice lines. I'd keep Noot over both as I don't think we've seen the best of him yet this year. Maybe check upcoming schedules and see what kind lefty SP load Duran and Moniak might face to help the decision between 'em

Justin

1:33

Who are a few of your favorite players to watch on a nightly basis?

Paul Sporer

1:34

Ohtani of course but he always bears mentioning! Corbin Carroll, Adley Rutschman, the Reds, and a lot of the Padres offense even though they're underperforming

Guest

1:35

I still can't believe Carroll was totally fine after that swing the other day. but thank goodness! how much risk do you think there is of a <50 game season in the next 2-3 years compared to the normal position player?

Paul Sporer

1:37

I think there's always a decent risk of that with the electric speedsters at premium positions (aka the best players usually). They're just going to use their bodies more and be in harm's way, but I don't think you can really plan around it and of course these are the very best players so it just kinda comes with the territory.

Mrs Abrams

1:37

CJ Abrams has a .900 OPS and 11 NSBs over the past 30 days. Has your evaluation of him changed?

Paul Sporer

1:39

Did I have a recent negative take on him? I can't recall. I respect the hot streak and he can turn your SB standing around in a hurry when blazing hot like this. It is BABIP-driven as many hot streaks are, but with his speed, he could be maintaining a higher BABIP than average anyway so it doesn't necessarily have to dip back to his career .297 mark. I'm good to ride this streak and see where it goes.

Doddy

1:40

Had Eovaldi, Musgrove and Nola going for my team last night...all good!!

Paul Sporer

1:40

That's amazing!

v2morlew

1:40

In a national league only league. Have to plug a hole a 3B for a bit. How much playing time to you think Nick Senzel actually gets going forward?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Seems to be on the short side of the platoon so check the schedule for lefties. They have 2 this weekend but currently none penciled in for next wk

Chase Is On

1:41

Thoughts on Tyler O'Neill ROS? Is something like 10-30-30-10 a reasonable projection, assuming he really does have an everyday role?

Paul Sporer

1:43

I'm not sure I'd bet on him to run that much. Could see some self preservation given how much he's been injured. The other numbers all seem plausible with a full-time role... I wonder if that will be on another team

Seth

1:43

Will Schwarber end the year hitting over .200?

Paul Sporer

1:45

I'll go yes as that .200 BABIP is insanely low even for him

bob

1:45

which of these 2sps would you trade away in a pts league: Tyler Wells or Bailey Ober?

Paul Sporer

1:46

They're pretty similar, so I'd check upcoming schedules. Probably lean toward Wells because he's been great this yr and plays in the AL East v. Ober in the AL Central (though there are fewer divisional gms this yr), although RIGHT NOW might not be the best moment with Wells bc he was rocked last night, lol

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