JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:00

Hello everyone! Hope your Wednesday is going well, let's talk some baseball!!!

Definitely Not Nick

1:02

Is this the year you draft Kyle Gibson with his new slider

Paul Sporer

1:02

I drafted him last year!! I held on too long and his nightmare September likely cost me 2nd in my Main Event lol

Paul

1:02

Betts at 2b moved him into the top 6 right?

Paul Sporer

1:04

I'm definitely OK taking him that high even as OF only, so yes adding the 2B definitely helps

Kyle

1:04

Birchwood Brothers articles are always so great - glad they are back again this year!

Paul Sporer

1:04

Love reading their stuff!!

Raleigh

1:04

Any hope for reasonable fantasy production out of Donaldson or Rendon?

Paul Sporer

1:05

It all comes down to health with them. If they find it, then yes, I believe the skills remain strong enough to be quite good

Noot Doot's

1:05

As a biased Cardinals fan, am I overvaluing Nootbar for this coming season? Thinking 30 homer potential

Paul Sporer

1:06

You might enjoy my tidbit on him here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-outfielder-rankings/

Jim Leyland Palmer

1:06

Afternoon Paul, what is the best way to asses your needs during the season in a H2H category format? Ex. sometimes you win a category that your awful at, but the other guy just happened to be worse that week. How do you go about drawing conclusions on where you need to improve? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

1:07

That can be tough bc of the up and down nature of H2H, so you probably need to assess how you're winning categories and if it's by small edges in one or another week over week when you're not losing it, then that's probably a weakness. I believe most H2H sites also have tools where you can essentially see a Roto standing which should also help you identify strengths & weaknesses

Alicia

1:08

Hey Paul, always appreciate your insights. In a 12 tm 6x6 obp league who do you like most as a keeper value:

whoops got cut off: McCarthy, O Gonzalez, Santander, Peña (all would be forfeiting last round picks as they were FA pickups)

Paul Sporer

1:09

I'd go with McCarthy as the #1 for sure with Santander close, too. The OBP piece really stings Peña and could also hurt OG this year given his shaky plate profile

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh

1:09

Hi Paul…love the content you guys are pumping out. Thanks! That’s all.

Paul Sporer

1:10

Thanks so much! Just getting started here with the official start of the fantasy season happening Sunday around 9:30-10pm CT once the Super Bowl is done... OK, maybe it's only official to me, but that truly kicks it off IMO!

Farhandrew Zaidman

1:10

Not fantasy related, but the Cards DFAing James Naile on his birthday is rouuuuugh.

Paul Sporer

1:10

Oof, that really stings!!

Good

1:10

Nick Solak breakout this year?

Paul Sporer

1:12

He's in the right park!! (Cincy) but I'm not sure the skills or PT there. If something opened up where Solak was going to play a lot, I'd probably go for him in deeper leagues

ScottTINSTAAPP

1:12

Do you think there is any unlocked power in Keibert's bat? Also, do you think they might ramp up his PA to over 500 this year? Projections seem light

Paul Sporer

1:14

I'm not so sure about pop, but I think there's major AVG upside. I literally just did my projection for him before this chat and wound up on just 11 HRs... though that is a jump from last year's 7

Raleigh

1:14

The number one hitter in each league you recommend avoiding in fantasy drafts. thanks

Paul Sporer

1:19

I'm not that strident against anyone but if I have to land on a name, it's probablyyyyy Michael Harris at his price. I love Money Mike as a player, I really do, but I worry we're already paying full price despite some potential pitfalls in the profile, particularly the K & BB rates. Power and speed rules the day, though, so he could probably even outrun a major AVG fall off so if he's your guy, I don't want to push ppl off him. I'm just not paying the premium this year

Jim Leyland Palmer

1:19

Thank you Paul - GO TIGERS!

Paul Sporer

1:19

yw!

I Used to be Mel Clark

1:19

Is there a reason Freddy Peralta doesn't get more love? I will gladly grab him in the SP 40-50 range any chance I can get.

Paul Sporer

1:20

Definitely the health, but if you feel comfortable that the health risk is covered in the price then I totally get jumping on board. He's still electric when he pitches!

cavebird

1:21

I am surprised that I have not seen a bunch of articles about how the ban of the shift will help certain hitters. Any thoughts who might benefit the most?

Paul Sporer

1:25

I think it's 2 things: 1) it's not outright banned so teams will no doubt figure ways to adjust but also 2) there's no real way to identify who will really benefit because while guys definitely have profiles and trends in terms of how they hit the ball, that individual distribution still changes year to year which makes it hard to predict who will really jump with this unknown. Someone like Seager keeps getting cited for this, but the thing with him is that his AVG is set to regress regardless of shift changes

Insert Witty Name Here

1:25

Casty was down last year because he was hurt, right? Would you buy low on him?

Paul Sporer

1:26

Yes it absolutely seems like he was ailing and trying to play through it (in addition to an actual IL stint) and I'm definitely buying back https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2022-biggest-hitter-busts/

Hank Scorpio

1:26

Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I asked this question a couple months ago, but wanted to reconfirm with you with keeper decisions becoming imminent:

12tm, 7x7 roto, $275 budget for 24 spots, keep 3:
A. Kirk ($8); W. Adames ($10); S. Alcantara ($35); S. McClanahan ($27); N. Lodolo ($6) -- you previously said Kirk, Sandy, Lodolo for the record

Paul Sporer

1:27

I'm still on that trio with Adames in the 4-spot if you prefer him over one of them

PSUEds

1:27

Hey Paul! Are you doing a Beat Paul Sporer Online Championship this year? Looking forward to jumping in!

Paul Sporer

1:27

I am! Date announced soon!!!

Seany

1:31

How much do you love Christian Walker this season?

Paul Sporer

1:34

I like him a good bit. He's my #9 1B and I don't even have him putting up another 30 HR season to do so - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-first-base-rankings/

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