JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:03

Chat time!! https://i.imgur.com/FL6IAA1.png

Rock

1:04

Hi Paul. Thoughts on Shane Bieber this year in a keep forever league? Weighing between him and Sandy Alcantara as my third keeper pitcher (Sale and Cole are locked in).

Paul Sporer

1:06

That's a coinflip, tbh. They're 1 spot apart on my rankings (which are admittedly redraft, but they're also a year apart in age so it wouldn't change much in a long-term ranking). I might lean slightly to Bieber for team setup (not necessarily his team but rather the AL Central v. NL East opponents), but I can't make an overwhelming case one way or the other

Roger that

1:06

From a fantasy perspective, assuming Sandy is 1, who’s the Marlins #2 pitcher for 2022 - Trevor Rogers or Pablo Lopez?

Paul Sporer

1:07

I've got Rogers higher - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-rankings/ -- I love Lopez, but I can't ignore the shoulder concerns when comparing the 2

ScottTINSTAAPP

1:08

Listened to you guys on Edman, I think you're both too high! 2019 performance is looking like juiced ball outlier, he's got 900 PA of a sub .700 OPS and 90 wRC+ since then, that OPS is well below the Zimmerman threshold, and while he is one of the few guys who hits LH in STL (Gorman could be on his way up there which would be another LHH), there is a legitimate chance if Edman doesn't hit, they move him down in the lineup and his main skill of being a leadoff accumulator is diminished. New manager may handle things different, I could see them hitting Carlson at leadoff at some point, his good defense should keep him in the lineup, I just think there is more risk than you two are acknowledging

Paul Sporer

1:13

Perhaps, though it's a pretty quick handwave to just dismiss his '19 to kinda craft this narrative. I don't deny the 19 ball (how could I? it's a fact), but I also don't completely ignore the numbers from 19... especially bc we don't know exactly what the ball will be like in 22. I feel like both his BABIP (.291) and HR/FB (6%) were on the low end in 21. I'd be OK w/his 2nd half essentially doubled up if he can maintain that - .266/.314/.409 w/7 HR, 16 SB. He isn't risk-free and I acknowledge the lineup move risk, but I think the speed is still worth it even if he's batting 7th

Broken Bat

1:14

So Strom retires from Astros. Lots of success. He then is hired by Dbacks in like 10 days… cloak and dagger mystery novel. What happened?

Paul Sporer

1:14

Yeah, it was kinda surprising but maybe he just wanted out for some reason?!

Baddoo

1:15

Hi Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Baddoo did some great things, but little minor league history and up-and-down peripherals make for a tough read imo. Thoughts on him, esp in dynasty league context? Thanks

Paul Sporer

1:16

I'm a HUGE Baddoo fan. I love his in-season growth and think there's tons to like here, especially long-term. Can read more on my love of him here: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2021-roster-review-detroit-tigers and hear it here: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-988... --- I think there's real 20/20 vibes w/the potential for even more

RAH

1:16

Where will Bader hit in the STL lineup?

Paul Sporer

1:18

I think he starts down at 7/8 and could move up if a) Edman falters as Scott mentioned above and/or b) his K gains hold from last year and they just see him as a better fit atop the lineup. I love Bader and as the 62nd OF off the board, he is priced to buy given his power/speed upside

frank

1:18

AL only, all the same price and each can be kept for 3 more years, pick two: Adley, Adell, N. Lowe, Jung

Paul Sporer

1:21

Dang, tough crew to delineate from! Lowe was great last yr and there could be more, but hard to pick a 1B over C, OF, 3B so I kinda cross him off from that group. Jung hasn't debuted yet and while that alone doesn't rule him out, I'm inclined to lean elsewhere bc I don't know how long it'll take him to become the Justin Turner-esque player he appears to be. I'm still in on Adell as a power/speed upside stud, but that swing-and-miss is worrisome. Adley could be generational and makes me wanna break my no prospect catchers rule, espec. in AL-Only. I think I rank 'em Adley, Jung, Adell, Lowe

Not Jake Cronenworth

1:21

What should we expect for Joe Musgrove next year, and do you see any sleepers on the Padres pitching staff?

Paul Sporer

1:24

I think he will continue to be a beast. I'm intrigued by the return of Nick Martinez from overseas. Even the latest one - Josh Lindblom - feels like a bust, but he showed some good skills, but health has eluded him since returning. I'm still not out on Ryan Weathers, either. And at this point, MacKenzie Gore is almost a sleeper given how much his stock has fallen

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

1:24

Adell or Kelenic?

Paul Sporer

1:25

I've got Kelenic higher

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2022-fangraphs-draft-kit/ you can find my rankings here along with much more good stuff!

ScottTINSTAAPP

1:25

Yea fair enough! We all have our guys...I actually like Edman, he really helped out our Main Event team in 2019, just not sure I can pay the sticker price...I hope it works out though, he's a sweet dude

Paul Sporer

1:26

I'm also a sucker for multi-eligibility!

Broken Bat

1:26

How many at bats does Brujan get this year; and are they all with Rays? Grab your crystal ball….

Paul Sporer

1:28

Boy oh boy, wish I could clearly see into that crystal ball. I looove Brujan and would like to see him get a real role, but it's muddy right now. I still believe Kiermaier will eventually get moved after the lockout, though Josh Lowe could benefit most from that (and I love him, too, btw!). Kinda have to project both of 'em for south of 400 PA right now, but hopefully paths are cleared a bit more after the lockout

Guest

1:28

Confused about Eloy. We know he came back sooner than projected from injury, but it seemed like things got worse rather than better as time went on. Think he'll get back on stud track?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Yeah he had the dominant August and poor September. I wouldn't put a ton into either month, tbh. I'm still looking at the overall skills profile and very much into Jimenez. I still think the upside is a colossal .300/40/120 kind of season. Obviously, that's not the projection, but .270/30/90 is what I'm drafting him for right now

Aaron W

1:31

Mookie with his bum hip vs Kyle Tucker for 2022. I don't see either with a ton of steals. Who you drafting at the round 1 / 2 turn?

Paul Sporer

1:34

Honestly? Both. I'd be thrilled with a Betts/Tucker turn. That said, I do have Betts higher. I do think healthy Betts and Trout get their SBs back on track, too. I'm obviously not projecting them for 20+, but I think it's much more in their range of outcomes than the general market seems to believe. Tucker could spike a big SB season, but I tend expect more in the high-teens range right now due mostly to his team context. Houston lets their fast guys get some bags, but they rarely let 'em run wild

Rachel

1:34

Hi Paul, what do you think about Sal Perez this season? What a year last year some Jonny Bench type stuff. What round are you drafting him? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

1:38

Such a fantastic season from Perez, really impressive stuff. I can't pay the premium, though. I'm kinda floored that the projections start at 35 HR and range as high as another 40. From a catcher?! As an expectation?!?! No shot. I've been priced out of him because I'm not sure I'd even buy him at his max pick of 56 let alone the 34 ADP.

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter

1:39

15 team roto dynasty format. First, saves and holds as separate categories or better as S+H? Second, thoughts on draft format where you have no fixed minimum or maximum number of keepers? Keepers load from front and you draft beginning one round after your number of players kept. Coach A likes his team, keeps 22, drafts in round 23. Coach B hates his team, keeps 8, drafts in round 9.

Paul Sporer

1:39

SvHd together for sure. I'm totally OK w/the choose your own adventure keeper setup, too

Vince

1:49

Don’t think I’ll be able keep all in 12-team Roto H2H. Could you rank for ‘22 — and identify as SP1, SP2, SP3,etc — Eduardo Rodriguez, Framber Valdez, Manoah, McClanahan, Baz. Thanks!

Paul Sporer

1:53

ERod 33, Framber 40, Manoah 36, McClanahan 24, and Baz 45 in my latest ranking - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-sp-rankings/ -- I know it's longer term as a keeper, but I think Baz finds himself on the outside looking in w/this group

Guest

1:53

Similar cheap cost, final keeper: Votto or Jorge Polanco or Jazz? I'm leaning Votto. But will I regret it?

Paul Sporer

1:54

Ooh I gotta go w/one of the SS. Polanco has definitely shown he can be great and Jazz has that raw pwr and spd that is so good in fantasy. It's not that I don't think Votto can remain a big pwr source, but I think you can replicate his numbers in many other spots in the 1B pool

Anonymous

1:55

Ohtani as The Show cover athlete is the right call. What a dope trailer

Paul Sporer

1:56

100%!!! And that Deluxe cover is awesome!!!

Anonymous

1:56

if the Wander Franco steals don't materialize, is ADP 50 around where he'll live for his career?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Impossible to say as I don't believe that's the only factor. There is still so much unwritten about him. His power/avg combo could be such that the SBs don't matter and he's still a firm 2nd-rounder like a Freeman or Vlad type. He doesn't need SBs to become a fantasy god, they'd just expedite the process quite a bit

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