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Padres Outlook '23
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Anthony Franco
4:14
Hello everyone, hope you're all having a good afternoon!
4:15
There were some strong reactions to the Padres outlook haha. This should be an interesting one
Kevin Acee
4:16
Should any outlet (including MLB Trade Rumors) have any reason to believe anything I have to say about the team, its Finances, etc.?
Anthony Franco
4:16
Based on the comment section on the outlook, feels like I have to start here
4:17
There was a lot of skepticism among the fanbase about the Union-Tribune's report of a $200MM target (and associated criticism about factoring that into the outlook itself)
4:19
As far as the payroll goes, I will say that it's not just one report suggesting they're scaling back. Dennis Lin had a piece at The Athletic this morning saying the club "(appears) poised to take a step back in terms of payroll" and that "club executives have indicated that next season’s roster will be significantly less expensive" than this year
4:22
As with Acee's report, Lin leaves open the possibility that ownership pivots. That appeared to be the case late last offseason, when it seemed like they were done and then they signed Wacha. In a league without a firm cap, that's always a possibility. But it seems like the current plan is to scale back. If it's closer to 210-215 than 200, that increases the odds of them re-signing Seth Lugo or exercising Wacha's option, but it doesn't suddenly open up top-of-the-market spending unless those reports turn out to be completely off
tt
4:22
what are the realistic chances of a soto extension if things are going well next year?
Anthony Franco
4:23
Pretty slim, has always seemed like Soto just wants to get to free agency ASAP
HopefulFriarFan
4:23
Will Hunter Renfroe be a good outfield pickup? Or will he command too much money?
Anthony Franco
4:24
Definitely affordable. He's a one-year deal guy, maybe $8-10MM. Viable fallback option but I'm guessing they'd aim higher in free agency or a trade for an arb-eligible player as opposed to viewing Renfroe as a primary target
MostlyToasty1
4:24
After three years of mashing in AAA, have the Padres finally realized Campusano's bat can translate to the big leagues and serve as a strong C1? Or do you think they still plan to heavily split duties with whoever they're likely to bring in?
Anthony Franco
4:25
Yeah he's the clear #1 guy at this point. I think he would've been for most of this season if not for the thumb
pkennedy6@yahoo.com
4:26
I believe the key to 2024 is Padres signing Jung Hoo Lee. IF they can sign him, then trading Soto does not hurt as much. Your thoughts on the importance of a Lee signing.
Anthony Franco
4:27
Wouldn't tie him together with Soto. Certainly not expecting him to come all that close to Soto's production, especially in year one. I agree he's an interesting potential fit for SD though
4:28
Padres have the history of attacking KBO/NPB under Preller obviously. Depends on their scouting evaluation, but if they feel like Lee's an everyday center fielder, then making a run at him and subsequently trading Grisham for a bat makes sense
Catching for Pitching?
4:28
With Salas looking like a superstar and Campasuano starting to live up to his own high prospect rankings and regain his shine, do you sell high on Campy now for a young/controllable pitcher?
Anthony Franco
4:30
I think it's too early. Can't count on Salas in 2024, and I'm not sure this really qualifies as a "sell-high" situation on Campusano anyways. He's probably just a good starting catcher who'll get his first extended look next season. If Salas has forced his way to the doorstep of the majors by the end of next season, then trading Campusano when he still has four seasons of club control could get them a haul in 2024-25
Go Pads
4:30
As much as I hate ask this, with is down season and contract, does Cronenworth have any trade value?
Pad fan
4:30
Trading Croneworth to get back a good controllable starter might be wise to do from an infield surplus perspective since HSK has firmly established himself?
Anthony Franco
4:32
Could do this, although it's a sell-low situation that would put some pressure on them to either re-sign Kim after next season or have Jackson Merrill hit the ground running by '25
4:34
7/78 on Cronenworth through age 36 is a really weird contract but it's not a disaster or anything. For another team that doesn't have a solution at second base, it's tenable in the short term. Padres could kick in some money at the back end to make it happen, although the prospect return wouldn't be great coming off his 2023
Zach
4:34
What, presumably, are the long-term plans at CF, LF, and 1st base for the Padres? Trent Grisham is stellar with the glove, but can't replicate 2020 or anything close.
Anthony Franco
4:35
Yeah if not Lee, I'd give real thought to moving Tatis to CF and dealing Grisham to add some offensive punch toward the bottom of the lineup
Donal
4:35
Do you agree with the decision to keep Melvin? I think it’s the right decision. BoMel has had some big success in the past and were a Bryce Harper swing away from the World Series last year. Maybe it’s a pitching/hitting/bullpen coach problem but I don’t think Melvin should get the blame he’s getting.
Anthony Franco
4:37
I have no insight into how the relationship between Preller and Melvin will play out, but BoMel was almost universally regarded as an elite manager two years ago and I don't think that's changed. If ownership was satisfied that everything behind the scenes is tenable, then it makes sense to retain him
kurt the hurt
4:37
Who do you think ends up on first base ?
Anthony Franco
4:39
Mentioned Belt and Tellez in the write-up. Could try to make a run at Andrew Vaughn to see if the White Sox are more willing to move on. Ryan Noda in Oakland is probably available, there's a non-zero chance the Mariners listen to offers on Ty France
4:41
Relatively speaking, first base isn't a bad place to go into the offseason with a question. Feels like there are two or three arbitration-eligible players who wind up being trade candidates at that spot every year because the arb system skews in favor of rewarding offense over positional value
David
4:41
If Hader is not re-signed, who do you think will close?  Suarez?
MostlyToasty1
4:41
Is Robert Suarez the heir apparent for the closing job with Hader likely gone? That contract isn't looking particularly great after long IL stints in both of his first two years--and mixed results this season.
Anthony Franco
4:42
Yeah feels like Suarez is the next guy up. It was a bizarre contract from day one -- five years for a non-closing reliever basically isn't a thing -- but he should be better than he was this year with improved health
kurt the hurt
4:43
Does the Machado injury leave him possible DH at bats instead of 3B at bats ?
Anthony Franco
4:44
Early on they'll probably ease him back but nothing to suggest he can't go back to third regularly as he gets further away from surgery
Bbatardo
4:44
Would you pickup the 32M/2 option for Michael Wacha? I think declining Nick Martinez 32M/2 would be smart.
Anthony Franco
4:46
Wacha's borderline. I'd probably decline and try to circle back on a three-year deal at a slightly lesser annual salary. That's generally where we expect he'd end up if he hits free agency
4:47
Martinez is an easy no for me. Good pitcher, but $16MM annually only makes sense if you're likely to hold a rotation spot (which it doesn't seem like the Padres want to do) or an elite high-leverage reliever
Kim Ng
4:47
Potential trade fits for HS Kim?
Anthony Franco
4:49
I generally don't think they'll trade Kim -- Grisham and one of Barlow or Martinez (if he opts in) feel the likelier candidates -- but if they did, the White Sox, Mariners, Marlins, Brewers, Red Sox all make a lot of sense
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