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Offseason Review Chat: Texas Rangers (3/3/23)
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Steve Adams
8:34
Good morning Rangers fans! Looking forward to chatting in a few hours! I'll be back at 11am CT, but feel free to submit questions in advance.
11:00
Greetings everyone!
DeGrom
11:00
Pythagorean of 77-85 last year plus a real rotation, Jung a full year, Seager without the shift, a real left fielder, and lesser bullpen wear w/decent guys added like Duffy - I'm calling 85-88 wins this year. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
11:04
I think the Rangers might have the widest variance of plausible outcomes (in terms of W-L record) of just about any team in the league. They signed, in my mind, three of the six most talented starters in free agency (deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney) but the health risk on each is SO pronounced.

If they get a best-case scenario and can somehow keep all three healthy, along with Jon Gray (who's had his own injury issues), this is a playoff team for me, yes. The chances of all four making even, say, 25+ starts, is pretty slim, though.

There's no real way to project when an injury will happen or the severity of that health issue, but it does seem fair to expect a fair number of missed starts among a volatile rotation mix. I think a win total in the low to mid-80s is reasonable, and if they can land on the luckier end of the spectrum, yeah, they're in the Wild Card running.
Guest
11:04
Will Dane Dunning get traded now or headed to the bullpen?
Steve Adams
11:06
If they wanted to trade him, I imagine it'd have happened by now. There was very little starting pitching available via trade this offseason, and the Rangers' additions pretty clearly pushed Dunning out of a locked-in spot. He's the sixth or seventh starter on their depth chart now.

That said, with deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney and Gray all presenting varying levels of injury risk, that depth is key for Texas.

Dunning surely drew interest, as he's a decent No. 4/5 starter with plenty of club control remaining. If the Rangers have spurred interest to this point, I don't expect them to pull the trigger on a deal now, when the options to replenish the depth they'd lose in this trade largely having dried up.
Rangers13
11:07
Do you think Cody, Jacobsen or Funkhouser make the BP roster?
Steve Adams
11:10
Unless I'm mistaken, Funkhouser's not even an option until mid-season after last summer's surgery. I don't think either Kyle Cody or Lucas Jacobsen is making the Opening Day bullpen, though. They basically have Leclerc, Hernandez, Burke, Barlow, Hearn and Odorizzi locked into spots. Josh Sborz is out of options, which could give him an edge. That leaves one, maybe two spots if they decide to move on from Sborz.

When you look at the experience of Texas' non-roster invitees -- Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Reyes Moronta, Zack Littell, Dominic Leone, Jacob Barnes -- it feels likelier to me that one of those guys will get the final spot(s)
11:11
Of course, injuries happen throughout the year, and guys can force things with their performances. The eight guys that start the season in the 'pen isn't at all indicative that Cody, Jacobsen or anyone else won't eventually get a look. The Rangers, just like any other team, are going to go through a couple dozen pitchers this year.
Unclemike
11:11
I just posted with the Rangers article That when I look at the Rangers, And Angels also, I see either feast or famine with the key being health for both. Is that how you see it Steve?
Steve Adams
11:13
I see that even more so with the Rangers, just because their rotation is SO contingent on high-upside arms with above-average to extreme durability risk.

Broadly speaking, I think the Mariners, Rangers and Angels are all talented enough to contend for Wild Card spots. The Astros are still the ALW favorites, for me, and the A's will obviously bring up the cellar. The middle three teams are all interesting in 2023. It'll be a fun division.
Go frogs
11:13
Who is the starting left fielder this year since they didn’t make an offseason move to fill that spot?
Steve Adams
11:14
I'd imagine Grossman's going to see the bulk of playing time early -- he's gotten the most looks so far in camp -- but it could ultimately end up being a platoon situation with him and one of Brad Miller or Josh Smith.

If the Rangers are even within arm's reach of the Wild Card this summer, I have to imagine a corner OF/1B/DH bat is going to be on their list of targets.

As I wrote in their review... I'm pretty surprised they didn't make a more substantial move in left field.
New Rules
11:15
If Bubba Thompson plays everyday, is he the AL stolen base champion?
Steve Adams
11:17
If Bubba Thompson plays everyday, something has gone horribly wrong for the Rangers. He needed a .389 BABIP to get to a pretty dismal .265/.302/.312 slash line in 2022.

Thompson playing every day might result in something like a .230/.270/.290 slash. I don't think he'd get on base enough to be a threat for the AL lead. He's an optionable fourth OF, for me.
Ranger fan
11:17
Will the rangers still try to pursue Bryan Reynolds at the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
11:17
I would expect the Rangers and probably 10 other teams to pursue Reynolds, yeah
B Snit’s Bongos
11:18
Which position player is most likely to make 162 starts in 2023?
Steve Adams
11:18
Marcus Semien has started all but 11 of his team's games over the past four seasons combined. Has to be him if you're betting on a possible iron man this season.

(I apologize in advance for jinxing Semien's health in 2023)
Joe
11:19
What’s Jake Odorizzi going to do? Rotation looks full but injuries happen. Does he go to the ‘pen?
Steve Adams
11:20
Barring a spring injury, I imagine he'll open as a sixth starter/long reliever. Probably not a role he loves, given his track record as a starter, but there are going to be plenty of opportunities for him to start games this season, and as far as sixth/seventh/eighth rotation options go, having Odo/Dunning/Glenn Otto is a pretty nice spot to be in.
Boch
11:20
Bochys presence will change the clubhouse culture and lead them to the playoffs. Players on the fan said everyone wanted to run through a brick wall for him after his speech.
Steve Adams
11:21
The Rangers already have enough injury risk on the team -- I'd advise against running into/through brick walls.
11:22
That said, I can buy that Bochy's presence is a big boon for the team. Of course it is. He's a Hall of Fame manager with three rings in the past 13 years. He's beloved throughout the sport.

That's not going to keep the team healthy, though, and while I'll sound like a broken record by the end of this chat (if I don't already), that's what everything hinges on with these '23 Rangers.
Coots
11:23
I think it's entirely plausible that they pursue a COF/1B acquisition at the deadline, a la the Astros' acquisition of Trey Mancini - that said, I think it's also plausible that a minor leaguer forces the issue by July 1 as well. Dustin Harris is already on the 40 and, health permitting, could make a push.
Steve Adams
11:27
Yeah he certainly could; solid year in Double-A last season and big raw power from the right side. There'll be questions about his defense in left field or at first base, wherever he lands.

Projecting Harris to be that guy isn't crazy, but it inherently assumes that each of Lowe, Taveras and Garcia will remain healthy and productive. Harris and other farmhands aren't locks to reach that potential, either. The power-dependent 1B/LF profile could go a lot of ways. He could be Ryan Mountcastle-ish (that's good!) or go the Brent Rooker route and struggle to break through at the MLB level.
Solly
11:27
What are the chances that Jack Leiter turns things around and gets a September callup?
Steve Adams
11:30
If I had a means of projecting this with any degree of certainty, I'd be working for the Rangers and not chatting with you right now, haha, but I'll just generally say that Leiter would hardly be the first touted pitching prospect to come out of the draft, struggle for a year, and then right the ship. It was an aggressive placement in Double-A, he didn't use his changeup much (which hurts against lefties). He's still only 22. A September call-up isn't something I'd call likely, but he's already had a full season in Double-A. If he repeats the level and pitches well for a couple months, he's probably bumped to Triple-A and at that point anything can happen.
11:31
It wasn't a good first year for Leiter, and there's no getting around that, but I'd hardly be writing him off after one shaky debut season in Double-A
Matthew
11:31
Why are people still overlooking Nathaniel Lowe?
Steve Adams
11:31
I love Nathaniel Lowe's bat!
11:32
I wrote about him at length last summer and why people should be paying more attention to him.
11:33
That said, the glove is less inspiring. I thought the Rangers would've been a decent fit for a Yuli Gurriel type ... low-cost rebound with the bat but a track record of picking it well at 1B. Doesn't seem they'll go that route, though. You hope Lowe's glove will improve, but -9 DRS and -11 OAA isn't a great look, either.
Realistic
11:34
Doesn't Adolis Garcia fit better as a CF? I realize that the Rangers have tremendous talent/depth issues at the corner OF (and DH) spots - but doesn't a mid-to-low .700 OPS bat combined with his above average glove fit better as a CF?
Steve Adams
11:38
I think he's fine in either spot, but Leody Taveras' presence pushing him to RF is fine, given how well Taveras can play CF. I get the point about RF being a typical spot for an offensive powerhouse, but Garcia's a good defender there with plus speed and power.

His general offensive approach -- free swinging, low BB%, high K%, very power dependent -- isn't one I generally like, but Garcia does pretty much everything else well other than getting on base. He's a good player and I think well suited to a corner, even with the middling OBP
Cleveland cowboy
11:38
Thoughts on the catcher situation. Is Heim really a 400AB guy or could you see a healthy Garver and him splitting closer to 50/50
Steve Adams
11:41
There's enough power with Heim and certainly enough defense that I think he's fine to pile up 400+ plate appearances as a catcher. Garver can't really be counted on to log a 50% workload behind the plate all season anyhow. I've wondered whether they might carry three catchers at times in order to get Garver into the lineup as a DH more often.

Garver is a good hitter -- lethal against lefties -- but I think it'd be unrealistic to expect 350+  PAs out of him at 32 and with the injuries he's had in recent seasons.
B Snit’s Bongos
11:42
Which of Texas’ Spring position battles do you find most intriguing?
Steve Adams
11:44
I don't think there are a ton of battles to be sorted out. They need to figure out who's in left field, but that's kind of a hodgepodge of so-so options without a clear possible standout (aside from maybe Josh Smith I suppose, but his '22 debut was very rough).

I'm curious to see who grabs those final bullpen spot(s). It's a pretty intriguing list of non-roster players, and if they can get a healthy Danny Duffy, that's a pretty big arm to slot into the bullpen. Suppose that, sort of by default, is my pick for the most interesting battle. Much of the lineup/pitching staff is set otherwise.
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