You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Offseason Outlook Chat: Pittsburgh Pirates
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
1:02
Greetings Pirates fans! Sorry to be a couple minutes behind
Let's get this underway
Dan
1:02
What kind of contract will Jeimer Candelario command this offseason? Could he be an option for Pirates at 1B?
Steve Adams
1:03
I imagine he'll likely be a bit more expensive than Pittsburgh would prefer. I had him down at four years and $72MM when we were first going through our preparation for the Top 50 free agent rankings. That's higher than Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco were at, but there's a pretty good case for a strong four-year deal all the same.
1:04
No qualifying offer, three of the past four years have basically been at a solid 3-4 WAR pace. Good hitter from both sides of the plate, reasonable defender at third and can also play first base, etc.
Adam
1:04
Do they finally find enough value out there to trade Bednar? Or are they going to be competitive enough to keep the closer again?
Steve Adams
1:06
I'm not expecting them to trade Bednar. They control him for three years, he's among the best relievers in the game, he won't be expensive, and the rebuild is at least entering its final stages. There will inevitably be rumors about him this winter, simply because rival clubs are going to call. It's the nature of the business. And GM Ben Cherington will listen, because it's his job. But while I'm gearing up for another offseason of Bednar rumors, I think it'd take a price that most other clubs would consider exorbitant, and I expect Bednar to open the 2024 season as the Pirates' closer.
William
1:06
Is this gonna be the end of the road for Andrew McCutchen? Is he gonna be ending his career now?
Steve Adams
1:08
He still had a productive season when healthy, and Cherington has spoken openly about wanting him back and how he plans to talk contract with Cutch this offseason. McCutchen himself has said he doesn't plan to play anywhere else at this point. I'd expect them to do another one-year deal in the same range as last year. I'm sure they'll want to wait a bit to see how the Achilles mends and know what the timeline looks like and everything, but I'm expecting him back at PNC Park. He's at 299 career homers, so it'll be nice to see him back in a Pirates uniform next year and hopefully reaching that milestone in front of the home crowd.
Ryan
1:08
When can we realistically expect Skenes to make his first start?
Steve Adams
1:09
Sometime early to mid-summer of 2024. I'll arbitrarily guess late June, but I think anytime from late May onward is at least feasible. They'll want to get him some minor league work, probably at multiple levels, but it's not going to be a long minor league tenure for him.
wk kortas
1:10
Is there any reason to expect that the Pirates will be players for someone in the Nola/Montgomery line of starters, or will it be another offseason of get-me-to-the-deadline innings-eater types?
Steve Adams
1:12
I think both Nola and Montgomery are looking at $100MM+ contracts, so you're talking the largest contract in franchise history to sign either. That just doesn't seem realistic.

That said, there's room for them to take a step beyond Quintana/Anderson/Hill as we've seen in past years. It's fine if they want to sign one of those types (Kyle Gibson comes to mind), but they need to start aiming higher and bring in a second arm as well if they go that route first.

I like the Bucs for a Frankie Montas, Luis Severino type of upside play. Wouldn't mind seeing them go multiple years on a younger SP if that's their preference (Flaherty?)

If the big offseason add is just another innings eater, that's a disappointment and they'll deserve flak for it.
Bucs
1:12
Hoskins a fit at 1st?
Steve Adams
1:14
I think the Phillies will just make him a qualifying offer and he'll accept, but if he hits the market without a QO then yeah he's a fit on paper, but I have a hard time imagining the Pirates being the ones to throw down the probably $40MM-ish over two years that he and Scott Boras will be seeking -- probably with an opt-out after year one
Michael Conforto got 2/36 and an opt-out from the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery. I imagine it'll be a similar playbook for Hoskins this winter.
Bucco71
1:15
If the White Sox strip it down would guys like Vaughn or Sheets be 1B targets for the Bucs?
Steve Adams
1:16
Sheets an be a target even if the Sox don't tear down. I don't see a lot to love there, but if the Bucs like the raw profile and think they can work with the swing, he could probably be acquired affordably early this offseason. There's just no long-term role there for him with Vaughn at 1B and Eloy needing DH time, and Sheets hasn't been productive since his 179 PA showing as a rookie in 2021
He's hit .224/.286/.377 over the past two seasons, including .203/.268/.334 in 328 PAs this year
1:17
The Sox love Vaughn, and I think the asking price on him will continue to outpace anything he's actually produced on the field so far.
Tom
1:17
What move would most be most surprising for the Pirates this offseason, that has some hint of realism still? Something that would make you believe they are turning the tables to really compete .
Steve Adams
1:20
Extending Mitch Keller and signing someone like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas or maybe Shota Imanaga for multiple years. Another offseason with a marginal innings eater, a bunch of backup catcher/short-term 1B rentals and some fringey bench pieces shouldn't cut it for Pirates fans this time around.
JB
1:21
Gonzales, Peguero, Triolo and Termarr on the way.  Could you see GMBC trading one of those first 3 away to upgrade another area?
Steve Adams
1:22
Yeah it'd have to be one of the first three because I'm sure they're not trading Johnson. I don't think Gonzales, Peguero and Triolo are exactly teeming with value right now -- none of the three had a particularly great showing this year -- but they're all young, controllable and were recently prospects of some note. Swapping one of them for an arm who's bounced between AAA and MLB but had some struggles of his own would make sense. I don't think any of Gonzales/Peguero/Triolo are viewed as untouchable building block pieces or anything
Josh
1:23
Might be too early to say, but is it worrisome that a bunch of past high draft picks (Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester, etc.) have done poorly in their first taste of the majors?
Steve Adams
1:23
You'd like to see them hit the ground running, but I'm not out on Davis or Priester at this point. I think Gonzales' strikeout rates in the minors were a red flag before he even got to the Majors.
Walter
1:23
Would the Pirates consider Shane Bieber?
Steve Adams
1:25
Given the asking price in a trade, the fact that he'll be owed a raise on a $10MM salary, and the fact that he'll be a free agent after the 2024 season, I don't think he's someone who aligns with their current trajectory. They'll need a ton to break right for them in 2024 to really compete, so the focus should likely be on multi-year acquisitions (although some one-year free agent deals will probably be in the fold)
BUCS FAN 66
1:25
How do you see the Pirates sorting through their logjam of position players next year?  Talking Cruz, Davis, Triolo, Gonzalez, Peguero, etc.  Is it possible that the Pirates scoff at the FA SP market and pursue trading excess position players (e.g., Nick Gonzalez) for a #2-#3 type starter?
Steve Adams
1:27
I don't think Gonzales is getting the Pirates a No. 2-3 starter.

Cruz will get every opportunity to play SS regularly next year. I imagine Davis getting regular at-bats, be it in AAA to begin the year or in the Majors (spring performance and offseason outfield/1B additions could impact that). I think trading from the Triolo/Gonzales/Peguero group is fine if not likely. But they all have minor league options, too. None have hit well enough to justify heading into the winter thinking that player is locked into a spot next year, and I'd expect some competition to be brought in.
1:28
Triolo is the only one of the bunch who's hit, but he's done so with a massive strikeout rate and a BABIP north of .400. I'm not really buying his performance this year.
MostlyToasty1
1:28
Any chance an arb-eligible player like J.D. Davis doesn't reach a deal with their current club and could be a better fit at 1B until someone else displaces them?
Steve Adams
1:30
I think JD Davis, specifically, will be tendered a contract and stay with the Giants, but to your broader point, there will be plenty of non-tender candidates added to the market and/or traded in late November/early December.

Among the bubble candidates at 1B (in my view): Rowdy Tellez, Alec Bohm, Seth Brown, Gavin Sheets
Dan
1:31
What does a guy like Reynaldo Lopez command this winter?
Steve Adams
1:32
High-end velocity, career-best strikeout rate, some command struggles, but a general track record of velo, average-or-better K% and prior to this season good command... I was just talking about Lopez with Tim and Anthony a couple hours ago during Top 50 Free Agent planning, and we all agree there's probably a three-year deal in the $8-11MM range annually there.
Ben C
1:32
Since all our good SPs are RHP & PNC park is better suited for LHP, who are some good bounce back LHP's that would be available affordably?
Steve Adams
1:35
It's not a great FA class for mid-tier lefty starters. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are two of the top arms but they'll both command $100MM+ (probably closer to 200 for Snell). Kershaw's likely staying in LA.

James Paxton, Wade Miley, Martin Perez, Hyun Jin Ryu and Alex Wood will all be free agents. Of the bunch, Ryu probably has the highest price on a one-year deal, and I can see two years for Paxton (though I'd personally prefer to limit any deal with him to one)
JasonDeHaven
1:35
What's the story with Andujar?  The Pirates don't seem interested in giving him another long look.  He killed it in AAA and has done really well in limited opportunites since being recalled.  Is it poor defense?  Poor attitude?  With a hole at first base, it seems like they could train him up at the position over the offseason and see if his upside plays out, but it doesn't look like he will get the opportunity.
Steve Adams
1:39
I'm honestly not sure; I'd love to see someone give the guy a real look, but the Yankees had no interest in doing so in spite of clear needs throughout the end of his time there, and the Pirates barely gave him a look before passing him through waivers... when no one claimed him.

He's had a genuinely impressive season in Triple-A and hit well when being brought back to the Majors. I listed him as a non-tender candidate in my Outlook not because I don't think he deserves a chance but just because of how he's been handled by two different organizations now.

I'm not sure why he wasn't up sooner with the Pirates. They traded Santana and Choi, Connor Joe has had an uneven season, at best. It's a bit confounding.

At the same time, he's been given such little opportunity to prove he can stick, that it's now hard to head into the winter thinking "He's locked into a spot next year"
Guest
1:39
I see them going after Sonny Gray ,Michael Wachaa, and Jose Quintana for starting pitching they need to add To their pitching what do you think?
Load More Messages
Connecting…