JotCast | NFL Free Agency Fantasy Impact

NFL Free Agency Fantasy Impact

Dan Harris

2:00

Afternoon, all! Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. It’s been a wild few days of NFL free agency and I’m here to break it all down for you. For anyone who doesn’t know me, I’m Dan Harris, Editor-in-Chief of FantasyPros, host of the Sunday Night FantasyPros Football Podcast with Tags, and 7th-most accurate fantasy football ranker this past season. Focusing on free agency here but all questions welcomed, even outside of fantasy football!

tyler.masone

2:00

We all know Brady as of late has been a "short-ball thrower". What do we think the impact is on Godwin? Does he move into the first round of PPR drafts and become that consistent Julian Edelman-like option for Brady? (assuming all else stays the same in the offense). FantasyPros has him going around WR6 and beginning of the 2nd round.

Dan Harris

2:02

I think that’s about right for Godwin, and believe I have him at the 1/2 turn in PPR at the moment. But let’s be careful about overreacting just yet. First, Godwin was amazing last year (2nd in PPR scoring), so it’s not like you can assume a ton of growth. And yeah, Brady’s aDOT has been lower than even an average QB of late, and certainly WAY lower than Winston’s, but how much of that has been New England’s system and gameplan given their weapons. Is it possible Brady sees a huge jump in his aDOT with the Bucs. Absolutely. For now, I think the move slightly helps Godwin but I’m not bumping him much higher than WR6.

teamsalmon

2:02

Drake or Ekeler and what overall ppr ranking for both

Dan Harris

2:02

Six of one, half a dozen of the other for me, honestly. Believe I have Drake as the 10th RB, Ekeler as the 11th in PPR, with them 20th and 21st overall, but that is far from certain. Want to see the remainder of the moves. Could easily see both of them moving up significantly when all is said and done but as of right now, that’s where I land.

David R

2:02

How do you think Ian Thomas' fantasy value is affected by having Teddy Bridgewater as his QB? Seeing as how Jared Cook was somewhat fantasy relevant during his time with Bridgewater, can Thomas can be relevant as well?

Dan Harris

2:04

Thomas may have relevance, but I’m not really looking at how Cook performed as evidence of that. Other than Cook (and Kamara out of the backfield), Bridgewater only had Michael Thomas to throw to. He’ll have CMC, Moore, Samuel, and anyone else the Panthers bring in. But really, not only is Cook more talented, but it’s just a different system. Given Bridgewater’s low average depth of target (lowest in the league last year), I could see Thomas having relevant weeks. But still just a mid-tier TE2 for me.

David R

2:04

What are the odds of another team making Kareem Hunt an offer now that the Browns have tendered him?

Dan Harris

2:05

I don’t expect that any team is going to give up their second-round pick and a contract to get Hunt, if for no other reason than all his baggage. A chance? I mean, you’ve seen some of the crazy decisions that have been made in the last few days so there’s always a chance of anything. But I’m expecting Hunt to be with the Browns this season.

meagain5821

2:06

What kind of number do you expect out of Tyrod Taylor given he is the starter? Also what W/L record will the team have with him at the helm?

Dan Harris

2:07

First, not necessarily assuming Taylor is the starter. I assume, given how much money they’re spending, that the rumors are true and they’re not adding anyone in free agency. But they’ll draft someone to be the quarterback of the future and it’s all about whether that QB is ready to start or if we’ll have a situation like we did with Taylor/Mayfield with the Browns. But assuming Taylor starts, I think he’ll be . . . fine. A QB2 you can start while he plays and enough value with his legs. And no idea on W/L as of now. Chargers should have been much better than their record last year so could obviously improve, and their defense should be better. But let’s see how the dust settles first.

Drew

2:07

How is Dalvin Cook’s value affected by the Diggs trade? What are the chances he holds out and misses games?

Dan Harris

2:08

I’d expect the Vikings to extend Cook, as has been rumored, and can’t imagine he’d hold out. But don’t think the Diggs trade has much of an impact. The Vikings will add a receiver who won’t be as talented as Diggs, but they’re heavily focused on the run anyway. Not sure how much more you can really expect.

Loren

2:09

What happens to Diggs in Buffalo?

Dan Harris

2:11

Well, he’ll get pretty angry at the lake effect snow, but he’ll counter that by discovering Duffs Wings and fall in love with the city and its blue-collar mentality. But fantasy-wise, it’s a downgrade. Diggs can play multiple roles – he was the highly-targeted low aDOT guy in 2018, the lesser-targeted huge deep threat in 2019. He does well in both. But he’s moving to another run-focused offense with a quarterback that is . . . erratic accuracy-wise. Allen probably isn’t going to be a 4,000 yard passer under McDermott so you’ve got a less accurate passer with fewer targets . . . Still love Diggs, just drops a bit.

David R

2:11

I've seen conflicting reports on Austin Hooper's fantasy outlook with the Browns. Having Beckham / Landry to compete with for targets surely doesn't help his value, but then again the Browns did pay him a lot of money, which seems to suggest that they're gonna use him. Thoughts?

Dan Harris

2:13

I think the Browns desperately wanted a reliable tight end in Stefanski’s system and of course, they’re going to use Hooper. But man, there are a lot of mouths to feed in those short area throws now – Chubb, Hunt, Landry, Hooper, Njoku (for now). I can’t imagine Hooper matches the 7.5 targets per game he saw last year. He’ll be involved, of course, especially in the red zone. But certainly downgraded him, though still a TE1.

Drew

2:13

Hopkins value: slightly up or slightly down?

Dan Harris

2:15

Slightly down. Look, as long as Brock Osweiler isn’t throwing him the ball, Hopkins is going to be elite. And last year was weird – his average depth of target went way down and he was almost like a possession receiver. I’d expect that to change pretty heavily this year with Larry Fitzgerald there, but I also don’t think Hopkins is going to get quite the massive target share that he saw in Houston. Kingsbury’s system generally is based on spreading the ball around. Add it all up and it really comes down to we generally knew what we were getting in Houston with Hopkins. We don’t exactly know here. Still top-five for me. But a mild drop in value.

Guest

2:15

people are saying there are too many mouths to feed in Cleveland. But do you think people will undervalue Hooper in fantasy since the Browns made such a quick and heavy investment into him? Would they throw that money at him and not focus the offense around him?

Dan Harris

2:16

Talked about Hooper a bit above, but I think it’s less about the investment – of course they’ll use him and intend to do so – but more about that Stefanski needs at least one (if not two) reliable options at TE in his system, and Hooper fits the bill. The one thing I’ll say is that although Hooper’s targets will certainly drop, he’ll likely see more end zone looks. Mayfield has thrown a ton of touchdowns to his tight ends in his career (more than a third), so Hooper should make up some of the dip in targets there. But still, it’s just not as good a situation as in Atlanta as currently stands.

Zane

2:16

How high did you move Kyler Murray in your rankings after the Hopkins trade? QB1????

Dan Harris

2:17

Wait, is this Zane Gonzalez? Sweet! Nah, man, not quite that high. But third. He was sixth for me before the trade, so I was expecting some growth anyway. He was the QB7 last year (12th on a per game basis), and remember, he was much better early in the season. He still played well for the most part but it was just kind of a fluky lack of touchdowns for Murray in the red zone. I assume they’ll bolster the offensive line, too. So, yeah, top-3 for me now with the elite weapon.

LockitUp

2:17

For Dynasty, how would you rank Chark/Diggs/Boyd/KennyG?

Dan Harris

2:18

Kenny>Diggs>Chark>Boyd

Supa Bear

2:18

How about Blake Jarwin? Fantasy superstar coming?

Dan Harris

2:19

Ha, you joke, but I’m intrigued by Jarwin with no Witten now. Not as a TE1 or anything but in dynasty leagues a bit. He’s had four games in his career with at least seven targets, and he’ll generally put up respectable numbers with about 50 yards receiving and solid efficiency. Tons of targets in Dallas are open now (Cobb and Witten each had 83) last year, so I could see some relevancy. But again, out of TE1 range to start.

Drew

2:19

Before the draft: top 3 rookie QB fantasy dynasty rankings. GO!

Dan Harris

2:19

Burrow>Tua>Herbert

Fran

2:20

David Johnson. Putting aside the ridiculous trade, is he a solid RB2 now?

Dan Harris

2:22

Yeah, have him as a solid RB2 now in half-PPR leagues. 15h overall, I believe. The Texans obviously made a significant investment in him with the trade and by paying his salary. He’ll get the opportunity and that’s half the battle. Now, being fair, Johnson looked pretty terrible as a runner by the end of the season, Duke Johnson is still there to siphon off targets, etc. But remember, he was the RB10 in Half-PPR scoring through the first seven weeks before he got injured and then Drake came in. There’s no reason to think he’s totally done. There are plenty of targets up for grab without Hopkins, too. So I’m relatively bullish on him.

Drew

2:22

Are the Steelers going to add a RB? Is Conner still going to be the lead guy in PIT?

Dan Harris

2:24

I do think they'll add someone, if for no other reason than they've seen what happens when Conner gets injured. If you look at the FantasyPros Twitter feed, you'll see Bobby, Tags, Yates, and I predicted where free agents will land. I predicted Lamar Miller goes to the Steelers. Veteran presence, gives Conner a breather, won't cost too much. But that's what I'd expect to see - something like that

Drew

2:24

What is the likelihood that Gurley gets traded? If he does, is Henderson a dynasty target?

Dan Harris

2:25

Tough to move that contract, but I think it's 50-50 right now with the Rams trying desperately to improve their cap situation. I wouldn't call Henderson a target just yet. I'd want to get a better read on what the Rams' plan is. But his value certainly goes up.

John

2:25

Where would you draft DeVante Parker next year?

Dan Harris

2:26

Have him 38th in my half-PPR rankings at the moment (actually exactly at ECR FWW). So, start of the fourth for me.

Jimmy

2:27

Give me a behind the curtain look at the Sunday night recap show with Tags. What's the process?

Dan Harris

2:28

Haha. Ah, the Sunday recap show. Well, Sundays are pretty hectic as you might imagine. After directing our Sunday inactives and updating my rankings, I try to park myself in front of a few televisions to watch as many games as I can. I make notes on anything of significance (injuries, big plays, etc.) and generally start thinking about the direction of the show. After the early game end, I go to my office to get the show notes ready, which includes looking at a comparison of my and Tags’ ROS rankings to see where we disagree the most as part of “What’s your problem, man?” Then I message Tags to ask if he’ll be ready to go, he pops on at the usual time, and boom, jump in. He gets zero advanced warning about what I’ll talk to him about. I then spend the entire show wondering how I can possibly move us along fast enough to keep us to under an hour and 10 minutes, which is my goal, and how to best get feisty Tags to come out. All in all, pretty nice little Sunday.

Dan

2:28

At this point in the off-season, which offenses do you see taking a step forward in 2020?

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