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MLBTR Front Office fantasy baseball chat with Brad Johnson: 6/27/22
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Brad Johnson
12:00
Hey folks, we'll get started in a few minutes here. The chat notice only just went out so we're still awaiting questions.
Guest
12:07
What's the deal with Jose Berrios?
Brad Johnson
12:08
In one sense, this is an easy question. In another... not so much.
12:09
That's his statcast page. All that blue is bad. He's basically the worst pitcher in the league in terms of observed results (Giolito is similarly bad).
Understanding why he's bad when he was so recently good is a bit complicated.
12:10
Last season, he still had below average components, but they weren't nearly so extremely bad. And since he was good at preventing walks and inducing chases out of the zone, the net result was good.
12:11
He still has those walk and chase rate traits, but they're not resulting in strikeouts or weak contact anymore.
12:12
There are a lot of pitchers who walk a sort of razors edge. My only guess for now is he's lost some essential trick.
A deeper dive might reveal something more, but I know a lot of my colleagues have been looking and have only found these results-based explanations.
T-Mac
12:12
Do you think Triston Mackenzie can avoid giving up a home run to every Twin today, or is he best left on the bench, even in a deep league?
Brad Johnson
12:13
I'm using him, but it's a 20-team weekly league and my alternatives are Connor Seabold or Anthony Bass.
I think he's pretty much fire and forget in deep formats.
12:14
I haven't considered sitting him yet this season. But I only have him in the one league.
Next Year Values
12:14
Hi Brad. Thanks for the chat. Looking ahead to AL Only keepers and wondering about the dollar values of Josh Lowe and Riley Greene. OBP League. (I realize that's an open-ended concept, but maybe which player from this year's draft will they resemble next year in terms of value?)
Brad Johnson
12:16
So I whipped together some ROS values which isn't exactly what you asked but is what I can do quickly
12:17
Greene is projected for about $4 and Lowe for about $3. On that basis, something like $10 and $8 is the expected value today. Personally, I think they'll be more around $15.
12:18
They have some growing pains to sort through, but should be reasonably valuable next season since they have the power/speed/OBP profile.
Maris
12:18
Is it time to give up on those two alleged speed demons Myles Straw and Nicky Lopez? Is either ever actually going to get on base again?
Brad Johnson
12:20
The thing about these guys is it's really hard to see when they're hot and cold using common metrics. All of their contact reads as terrible, but sometimes they get into a mode that produces a lot of hits. The default state for such hitters is "bad," something I've warned about on several occasions regarding Jorge Mateo and Straw.
Eddie
12:20
Must cut one of two. Jeremy Peña or (WAS) Luis Garcia?
Brad Johnson
12:20
Garcia. He's just not nearly the fantasy performer
12:21
Depending on lineup role (it's varied), Pena's a true five-category performer.
None of those categories standout, but a guy without a negative category is usually around $20.
Cletis
12:22
This year seems littered with failed top prospects: Spencer Torkelson, Jarred Kelenic, Adley Rutschman. Only Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt are turning in acceptable performances. Were these players over-hyped? Are they being called up too soon (although they've torched the minors)?
Brad Johnson
12:23
I wouldn't call these failures besides Kelenic. I'd even go as far as to say Rutschman is hitting well. He's been a top ~10 catcher since his debut. The BABIP will normalize so he'll be in the .260/.340/.440 range going forward. That's what we expected all along.
12:24
Tork has come up light, but again, this is a normal debut for a 22-year-old with one year of minors experience. See Andrew Vaughn.
12:25
Tork has some things to solve regarding his selectivity. He has the traits to either hit for much more power or strike out a lot less. Something isn't quite clicking, but it (probably) will.
Remember Witt and Rodriguez also started really slow. A lot slower than Rutschman.
12:26
I've kinda thrown my hands up about Kelenic. Maybe he's a Dom Brown.
Catching Hell
12:26
Word is Jansen is coming back soon. Any idea what Toronto does with all these bats? Is Moreno going to be worth holding if he's the 3rd man, even with his talent?
Brad Johnson
12:26
I kinda doubt they keep him up at that stage. They'll want him to continue developing. If it's a redraft league, he probably won't be a hold.
potterjd
12:27
Your impression of Jarren Duran this year vs. last (improved skills?) and the likelihood that he holds on to a starting job once Kike returns from the IL?
Brad Johnson
12:27
Well, the first part is less of an improvement than a discarding ineffective adjustments.
He was selling out for power last season which worked in the minors but didn't play in the Majors.
12:28
Now he has a more reserved approach, and he looks like a high floor, low ceiling type (i.e. his original scouting report)
He shouldn't play over Hernandez
12:29
Jackie Bradley Jr. tho... he's barely playing above average RF defense. I don't get it. He doesn't really have a purpose in the Majors anymore.
EddieB
12:29
I need to replace Harper.  Please rank these OF's.  Kirilloff, J Sanchez, Carlson, E Olivares, Kwan and J Duran.
Brad Johnson
12:30
Carlson has a rough week coming up, but he's head and shoulders above the others here with the possible exception of Sanchez if he goes on a heater.
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