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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/2020
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hello all, and welcome to the chat
2:01
Hope everyone is having a good week amongst all the stressful Real World things - a few baseball-related distractions:
Jay wrote about Cole Hamels and the Braves rotation: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cole-hamels-cranky-shoulder-will-test-brav...
2:02
Craig has a double feature. First, on the Mets' outfield situation: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-messy-outfield-situation/
then on the injuries befalling the AL East: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-are-throwing-the-al-east-for-a-lo...
2:03
Also, yesterday Ben Clemens took a look at the dramatic spin spike Trevor Bauer saw last September: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-bauer-might-have-conducted-another-...
2:04
And later this week, we'll have the Yankees Top Prospect list, so keep your eyes peeled for that.
Them
2:04
Even though I question/disagree with things that are written here quite frequently, and even though I have yet to come close to changing anyone's mind about anything (or even make them waver slightly in their convictions), I appreciate that you and the other writers here are extremely interactive and engaging, and that you have these forums. I especially appreciate that they are often held during work hours when I might otherwise be tempted to be productive.
Meg Rowley
2:04
And we appreciate you risking the ire of your boss to chat with us.
2:05
There's a reason that it makes sense for us to take holidays off - you'd be shocked by how much of our traffic is the obvious result of people not wanting to do their day jobs.
Pickin2Click
2:05
You're Back!
Meg Rowley
2:06
Indeed. I am returned from vacation and also, just straight up forgetting to chat last week. My very sincere apologies for the latter.
Daniel
2:06
MLB has a contest out (today I think).  $1m prize for guessing who will lead 9 statistical categories (HR, wins, Ks, MVPs, etc) over the next decade.  Leaving aside the optimism implicit in it, how many people do you think get that right?  Do you think anyone would have done well at it in 2010?
Meg Rowley
2:07
I appreciate you correctly guessing the part of this I find the most interesting (optimism). I expect fewer than 100 but more than five people?
Jason N
2:07
Meg - I’ve granted you magic powers.  As a result, you can take any one of these players and put them on the Mariners:  Acuna Jr, Vlad Jr, Tatis Jr, Soto, or Franco.  And magically, they’re all age 22 with the same contract.  Who do you take?  And how would you rank the rest?
Meg Rowley
2:08
Are the guys who aren't yet 22 suddenly 22 at their current level, or am I getting the 22-year-old version of Wander Franco, just magically now?
Adam
2:08
Has coronavirus fever made you realize how often you touch your face in a given day? I’m about to start wearing mittens.
Meg Rowley
2:09
It is an extremely difficult habit to break yourself of, and while trying is very worthwhile, I think it underscores how important it is to regularly wash your hands. Wash you hands a lot, all the time, and especially after being out in public (she says, eyeing the day on the calendar when she flies to Arizona).
John
2:11
Hi Meg, I believe the common understanding is there is little to no predictive value in spring training.  Has there been any study/articles (preferably from Fangraphs!) on this?
Meg Rowley
2:12
This is true for a lot of things, but not all the things! My EW co-host Ben Lindbergh has written about some of the stats that do have predictive value the last few years. His effort from last year links to some other stuff that is worth reading, too: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/27/18283688/spring-training-three...
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:12
Were you planning to attend any games soon/once the season starts and how has the coronavirus impacted those plans? Doubting my plans of catching a series in early April...
Meg Rowley
2:14
I have two spring training games and some college contests on the calendar as of now. I think we all have to pay attention and do our best to strike the balance between vigilance on the things we can control (washing hands, staying home as much as your work allows if you do get sick, etc) and not overreacting (buying up a bunch of masks if you're healthy).
So as of now, I plan to do those things, but understand that this could change very quickly, and that I should also be prepared to listen to experts.
Matt Chapman
2:15
DRS has finally updated to reflect my ability properly
Meg Rowley
2:16
we'll have a little Instagraphs about it in the near future
2:17
We don't use DRS in our version of WAR, but we do display it on the site.
Sir Nerdlington
2:17
Ben Clemens is the Jeff Sullivan of the 2020s. Don't lose him.
Meg Rowley
2:18
We are very lucky to have a super great, rad staff, but yeah, Ben has a little of the Jeff in him. I think he's a good example for aspiring writers though, in that he is not affecting a Jeff accent as it were, even if his work and approach does often remind me of Jeff. But don't tell Ben that :)
The Shaker
2:18
Yankees + Sox injuries is making AL East more competitive... but why no love for Blue Jays as a darkhorse for the WC or division?
Meg Rowley
2:19
Well, some of these injuries are rather new, but also, the Blue Jays are still a little ways off. I think the Blue Jays would tell you that, even if we see Pearson soon. The Rays have to be thrilled though.
Of course, the Yankees are still projected to be very, very good.
Narvain
2:20
Is the Vedder Cup as important to the Mariners as it is to the Padres
Meg Rowley
2:20
It is important to me personally in that I enjoy this Padres team very much, and so get to watch them in person.
Evan
2:20
how much do you think the fan heckling for 82 road games is going to affect Houston? If ST is any indication this is going to be a loooooong year
Meg Rowley
2:20
I think that we will lose stamina for it.
2:22
So while I don't expect their villain status to wane, fans desire to boo and make signs might ebb and flow.
Gil
2:22
What are your realistic expectations for the Mariners and what are your 99th percentile outcomes expectations?
Meg Rowley
2:24
My realistic expectations is they are a sub-70 win team. My 99th percentile expectations is they are the worst team in baseball and get the first overall pick. This is a bad baseball team, but bad on purpose, and with an exciting farm. This mode of rebuilding isn't my preferred one from an aesthetic perspective (much more a fan of the D-backs skinny rebuild model) but since we're here...
DJ Tanner
2:24
Is Arte calling Friedman begging to do the trade again?
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