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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 12/3/19
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hi all, and welcome to the chat!
We'll get going in a second here, but a few things to highlight from the site today:
2:01
First, Jay's Jeter profile is live, and a good read, so read it! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2020-hall-of-fame-ballot-dere...
Craig took a look at the Moustakas deal: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-go-big-with-mike-moustakas/
2:02
and also at some themes that emerged from the non-tender deadline: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-lessons-from-the-wild-non-tender-dead...
Also, this reported piece from Justin Klugh on the Wichita Wind Surge and the controversy surrounding their name is well worth your time: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-change-in-the-wind-wichita-faces-blowbac...
2:04
and shortly, we'll have trade analysis on the Profar deal from Eric
with all that linked to, let's get started
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:04
It's non-tender season, which means lots of lazy headlines about how team X is too cheap to pay player Y. While that obviously factors in, has anyone tried to calculate the value of a roster spot? They're a scarce resource.
Meg Rowley
2:06
I think it can be a bit of both. Yes, roster spots are a resource, and not an endless one, and as someone who'd prefer that players become free agents sooner than later, them hitting that milestone earlier isn't inherently bad. But those things can all be true and some of the non-tender decisions can still be troubling, either because they indicate cheapness on the part of ownership, or a dearth of trade candidates for good players who ought to be in demand by winnings teams.
stever20
2:06
Why do you think we've gone Back to the Future with this Free Agency Period with all these seemingly over value and over long deals(like Moustakas and Pomeranz)?
Meg Rowley
2:09
I think that last year we saw the top of the market paid well and so while I was surprised by the length of those deals, I don't know that we know nearly enough to say that something fundamental has shifted (I'm skeptical it has). The reliever market has actually been pretty resilient to the downward pressure we've seen squeeze other position groups; the Reds want to win, and Moustakas is good. There are more specific forces that are in play for those guys.
Stuafoo
2:09
Does Betances make sneaky sense for the Ms? Offer a one year somewhat high AAV to let him reestablish himself while giving the Ms a good deadline trade chip, which also gets rid of the baggage of a qualifying offer when he hits the market again next year.
Meg Rowley
2:09
My sense of the current payroll situation in Seattle is that they won't be dolling out any high AAV deals, even of the short variety.
2:11
There are a lot of guys who make sense for Seattle to sign now with the understanding they'll be around come 2021, I just don't think they'll sign of them. Some of that is going to be the decision of free agents; not sure you'd want to hitch to Seattle's train before you have stronger proof of concept with the prospects, as it were. But a not small part of it is going to be a budget thing.
Brian
2:11
Do you ever grab your tummy when hungry and say "Me Growley" in a Cookie Monster voice?
Meg Rowley
2:11
Not my go-to muppet impression, sorry to say.
Sodo Mojo
2:11
Do you expect Dipoto to sign another veteran free agent Starting Pitcher and if so whom?
Meg Rowley
2:13
Yes, but an inexpensive one. Wonder if they look at Walker now that the Dbacks have non-tendered him.
I don't say that with inside info, just wonder.
Jon G
2:13
The contracts that have been agreed to thus far have been pretty strong for the players, relative to expectations. Is this a blip, or could we finally start tentatively feeling a little bit better about labor's share of revenue and its implications for a potential work stoppage in 2022?
Meg Rowley
2:15
I doubt very strongly that we see the percentage of revenue shift in a meaningful way. The influence of veterans in the union certainly matters (it's part of how we got the current CBA), but based on how they've ramped up in the last few months, I imagine (hope) the union knows better.
Some guys are getting paid, but you still have a not-small percentage of the league talking about cutting budgets, or stepping back from competition.
Molecular Lionel
2:15
Reds and Moose: good fit, overpay, a little bit of both?
Meg Rowley
2:17
Good fit, maybe a touch of an overpay but far from one that'll hurt their ability to do other stuff given the current state of their payroll and what they have coming off the books soon.
I love it for them. The Central is far from settled, and they want to win.
Chris
2:17
what do you think of Jurickson Profar?
Meg Rowley
2:19
Despite everything, he remains interesting. On the one hand, it feels like we know what we're getting - at some point the prospect shine really does have to fade, but he's still hilariously younger than you think he is. Still in the "let's see what we can do with him" bucket for me.
Chris
2:19
Can/should Wil Myers be traded?
Meg Rowley
2:20
From the Padres perspective, he should be, but it's going to be tricky to find a partner for him.
Eric had some good insight on this in his piece on the Brewers-Padres Thanksgiving Eve trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-brewers-and-padres-swap-of-y...
Billy Beane
2:20
Hey Meg. Watch any good TV lately? I've been watching more TV since baseball ended and there sure is a lot of it.
Meg Rowley
2:22
I do not say this in a sassy way, but more in a, I am very overwhelmed by how much TV there is way, but I've been trying to read instead of watch TV now that evenings are freer. That said, did burn through a few old X-Files episodes over the long weekend, and will I swear finally get to Succession at some point here.
Jimmy_Changa
2:22
I'm happy for the market in general that Moustakas got his deal and a beefy one at that. But since Eno's article about he and Hosmer bullying him, I haven't liked that guy. Is that fair?
Meg Rowley
2:23
There are worse reasons not to like a players, though I've mostly heard ok stuff about him since. Never good to be a jerk, though. Hopefully he's reflected on that.
Robert
2:23
JD Martinez has a three-team no-trade clause that he had to submit by the end of November. Under what circumstances would he agree to a trade to any of those three teams (specifically wondering about the White Sox, who had interest in him before opting in)? Contract extension?
Meg Rowley
2:24
Would imagine an extension that makes the next opt out a non-starter, which seems unlikely, though those lists always have more than money involved, so there might also need to be a shift in how serious they are about contending, which, deals like the Grandal one help with that!
lol remember how the White Sox signed Grandal?
I love celery
2:25
Really curious about your thoughts on Evan White. Do you think he'll win a starting job out of spring training? What's his ceiling as a player?
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