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Klawchat 9-12-19
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Keith Law
1:01
A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.
Lyle
1:02
How soon could the M's run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law
1:02
Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn't performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.
addoeh
1:02
Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects?  They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there's still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law
1:03
I think they've drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.
Sam
1:03
When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law
1:03
I mentioned in this week's newsletter that I will have information on it soon.
Moe Mentum
1:03
I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law
1:04
Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.
Jim
1:04
North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law
1:04
Totally unsurprising.
Richard
1:05
Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he'll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law
1:05
I would bet the under on this year's performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I'd buy in.
Richard
1:05
Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law
1:06
I don't think so, because I don't think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.
JR
1:06
Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner  (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry - LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law
1:06
Agreed.
Dr. Bob
1:07
Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law
1:07
Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won't disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.
Dave
1:07
Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law
1:08
No. He wouldn't be up if they hadn't had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he's ready to be an average regular.
Chris
1:08
Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law
1:08
What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They've done it before.
Craig
1:08
Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law
1:09
Disagree that he's "slept on." High draft pick, well known within the industry. He's very good.
Jerod
1:09
Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law
1:09
I'm buying. He was very much in that "guy you thought would hit but were wrong about" category for me till this year.
Appa Yip Yip
1:09
A lot of times you get people trying to play "gotcha" on you with players you're not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law
1:10
I'd really like to see more than a full year for that. I don't always have that luxury of time, but we've seen so many players have fluke years that it's too easy to say "welp, I was wrong," only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.
JR
1:10
Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law
1:10
Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.
Jeff
1:10
Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law
1:10
If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.
Craig
1:10
You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law
1:11
I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a "full bore metal" one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.
Bryan (Montclair)
1:11
Do you think that J.D. Davis' bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law
1:11
I'm inclined to the latter.
Eric
1:11
North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law
1:12
That works, especially with the whole "several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature" comparison.
David
1:12
Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it's a disaster there.
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