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Klawchat 5/31/18.
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Keith Law
1:00
I can tell just by the climate, and I can tell just by the style. It's Klawchat.
John
1:00
As a White Sox fan, I'm been more focused on the minor league prospects than the big league results.  I've heard some info on "Super 2" status for Kopech and Eloy that says that Kopech's Super 2 date is in June and Eloy's is in July.  Is this information accurate and why would the dates be different?
Keith Law
1:02
That's some incredibly bad information. There is no specific "super two" date - it varies each year, and we don't know the date for year N until after year N+2 - but it would be the same for all players who currently have 0 days of service. I also think it's really dumb for fans to worry about this beyond wondering when a player would be called up; it's not your money, and in the grand scheme, unless the player becomes a star, it's not much money to the teams, either.
GS
1:02
Thoughts on Twins prospect Kirloff? He's raking. Mid-season promotion or do you wait because it's his first season back?
Keith Law
1:03
The argument for promoting him is that he's 20, and not young for low-A (not old, either). You might want to challenge him with high-A competition before the summer is out.
John
1:04
Thanks for "Smart Baseball", I think I learned more from that book than my previous 30 years of listening to announcers!  Luis Gonzalez (White's Sox's 3rd round pick in 2017 out of New Mexico) has been having himself a nice season down in Kannopolis.  But he's a college guy repeating Low-A.  Should I temper my enthusiasm or is he someone to keep an eye on?
Keith Law
1:04
He's 22 and shouldn't be in low-A. He's a prospect, but his stats this year are kind of worthless for evaluating him.
Greg Bird is The Word
1:05
Considering Hicks is a FA after 2019, & Florial is a ???, if the Yanks signed Harper, could he handle CF mostly full-time?  If he still has a Mantle fascination, they could give him # 77 & sell him on playing that position. And throw $400 million at him, of course...
Keith Law
1:05
I think he can handle CF, but my question would be whether that would increase the chances of him getting hurt (covering more ground, plus he still plays like his hair's on fire).
Chris
1:06
Any opinion on what Ross Stripling is doing? It only ~50 innings, but it seems it would be hard to fake a 30% K against a 5.6% BB.
Keith Law
1:07
Stuff is unchanged, but he's throwing a lot more strikes. I don't think he's close to this good, because the stuff isn't any better and not going to miss that many more bats, but if he's throwing strikes at this rate (and thus not walking guys) with the stuff he does have, he's probably a 3rd-4th starter.
Candice Bergen
1:07
I'm guessing CBS is praying that no old videos of me in blackface praising Hitler surface.
Keith Law
1:07
And audiences everywhere are praying they do.
TJ
1:07
Would you even comment on what round Heimlich would be on talent alone or is it immeasurable given the other very serious issues?
Keith Law
1:08
I think he's undraftable, and will voice my criticism of any team that chooses to draft and sign him. I do not give a single, solitary fuck how good a pitcher he might be.
addoeh
1:08
Is there anything funnier in baseball, or maybe sports, than watching members of the bullpen sprinting in like an eight year old chasing an ice cream truck because of an argument between the two teams?  Bonus points for the bullpen catcher in full gear running in.  It's sillier than a goalie fight in hockey.
Keith Law
1:09
It just prolongs the agony of watching the 'brawl' (that often is less a brawl than a show of something or other). If you leave the bullpen during a fight, automatic five game suspension.
TJ
1:09
How come there aren't public metrics on minor league WAR?
Keith Law
1:11
I don't think those stats are terribly useful for minor leaguers; we want prospects to show certain skills, and care about their ages relative to their levels, but a minor leaguer who posts a high WAR or wOBA or wRC+ isn't necessarily a good prospect. Chase Vallot posted wRC+ of 140 and 136 the last two years in low- and high-A, respectively, but wasn't much of a prospect at all because his hit tool is so far below average. He's now got a 76 wRC+ in high-A with a Tebowesque strikeout rate.
Adam
1:11
Who wins a foot race between Buxton and Acuna???
Keith Law
1:11
Buxton is the fastest player in the majors.
Krontz
1:11
What's the better Shane Beiber comp . . . Josh Tomlin or Kyle Hendricks?
Keith Law
1:11
Bieber has much better stuff than Tomlin.
BE
1:11
As a Tigers fan, how concerned should I be about Avila passing on Mize?
Keith Law
1:11
The industry is still betting they take him.
Mark
1:11
Do you have any intel on guys the Padres are targeting for later rounds (yes I read your mock)?  Did they acquire the extra pick with that CF in mind already in mind?
Keith Law
1:12
I think they acquired the extra pick with a lot of guys potentially in mind. You can't guarantee someone will get to your second pick, but waving extra money around might help, and it means you can then take a better guy when your pick does arrive. It wouldn't shock me if they took someone like Hankins who slips on signability + injury concerns.
Nick
1:12
Is there a stat that factors in level of competition faced? Example: Clevinger facing Houston in back-to-back starts vs. Ohtani's start vs. the Yankees being skipped so he sees the Tigers?
Keith Law
1:13
I know BP has listed aggregate stats of batters faced (so you can see the triple-slash line of a pitcher's opponents).
James
1:13
Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. I can only scout the statline here, but would you say that Jonathan Hernandez is arguably the best pitching prospect the Rangers have (with Cole ragans out right now anyways)?
Keith Law
1:15
Who's his competition at the moment? Ragans is out, Matuella has a 9+ ERA, Speas can't throw strikes, Cody is out, even Crouse is out.
scott
1:15
Hi, Keith.  how do we explain what is going with guys like Charlie Morton?  34 yrs old and seems to be getting better.  is it a new pitch?  something the Astro's coaches do better than other pitching coaches?  thanks
Keith Law
1:15
Changed approach in that month he was in Philly, and the Astros kept it going. Stopped trying to sink the ball, went with more four-seamers up.
Mark
1:15
How does the process of trying to get a player to "slide" in the draft work?  Does a team tell the player they will pay them x amount of $, and the player then tells other teams that's the floor of what they'd take?
Keith Law
1:16
Exactly. Don't take my guy because he won't sign for less than $2 million. Sometimes it works, sometimes Anthopoulos says screw you, I'll take who I want.
Andrew
1:16
Thanks for all the work Keith, including the latest mock. I know you have Winn at 2 to the SFG, but what would you do if you were Sabean / Evans? Take Stewart because he's your best player available?
Keith Law
1:16
I'd make an offer somewhat below slot to Stewart and Liberatore (my #3) and see who takes it. You do want to be able to go over at pick 45 and grab someone else of first-round caliber.
Krontz
1:16
If MLB expands to 32 teams, what's your favorite setup then?  Eight divisions w/ four teams each where division champs make playoffs and no more Wild Cards?
Keith Law
1:16
Worse. That will give us another sub-500 division winner.
Derek
1:17
Adam Eaton is heading on a rehab assignment and scheduled to come back next week. What should the Nats do upon his return? It seems clear that Harper, Eaton, and Soto are the three best bats and should play most of the time. CF defense would be a problem, but the extra offense more than makes up for it, in my opinion. Who of those three would you stick in CF? I can make a case for and against each one.
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