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Kiley McDaniel Spooky Chat - 10/31/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:12
Coming to you from Florida for one last time, it's Kileychat
Mets
12:14
We hired an agent.... WTF? honestly, I don't see how even a regular GM would see anything but a full teardown as the only option.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
The Brodie Van Wagenen hire is definitely one drawing some conversation around the game. It's definitely not normal to have a GM that is recused from talking contract extension with your best player. The game has also changed so much in the last 5-10 years and agents have almost no exposure to all of these new facets.

I'm not saying they/Brodie don't understand the stats we talk about here, but you'll need to staff up/direct an R+D department, know their blind spots, hire scouts, hire coaches, etc. Not every GM is good at this, but how can we expect BVW to be good at this right away with no prior exposure to any of it, working with people he essentially doesn't know? We also don't know what sort of personnel decisions he'll make, whom he'll hire/fire in the front office...there's just a lot of questions.
12:19
He could be good--I don't want to be cast as knocking the hire just due to lack of information about him--but it just seems like an odd decision and one that's impossible to judge for awhile.
Walter O'Malley
12:19
Which is worse for pitcher health? Throwing 100 mph or throwing 100 pitches?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
100 mph. That's the biggest known cause of arm injuries. Rest between starts would go way ahead of pitches per start in terms of importance for predicting injuries. There's a reason relievers get used 2-3 days in a row and blow out more often.
James Brandon
12:20
If you were a GM, how much (if any) effort would you put into scouting independent leagues?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Very little. You can narrow it down to a handful of guys you may be interested in and a resourceful person can call coaches and get velos to where you could just ask a lower level scout to go to a couple games a month, if a guy seems interesting in a spot where you could actually let him play. I've been involved in some successful indy signings and we only had a scout watch the player in some circumstances.
Fred
12:22
Do you have any inkling as to what FV Yusei Kikuchi might get? Or rather what kind of starter he might be?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
League average or so, maybe 55 FV, but some concerns as stuff/performance wasn't quite as good this year and he's only 27. The Japanese arms usually succeed in MLB early, especially if there's some funk in the delivery/arsenal, but often get adjusted to unless they're an outlier in some way and I'm not sure Kikuchi is.
Alex
12:24
How honest do you think scouts and front office types are compared to the general population?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
In non-work environments, they aren't any different than normal people, other than drinking a lot more. For work, they probably have a similar about of biases about strong beliefs as anyone, maybe a little more
Jacob
12:25
Better projected outfield defense: Eloy Jimenez or Christin Stewart?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
We have Stewart as a DH and Eloy as a RF
Bobby Bradley's 40-time
12:26
yo dawg this chat is spooky af
TKDC
12:26
Is Fangraphs going to give its own free agent predictions like Dave Cameron used to do? Also, when can we expect to see the results?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Yes and they will be done by *shuffles papers*
ME
12:27
coming out Monday, I'll handicap the market for each guy and another FG staffer will handicap the player
Cotty
12:27
Ok so this is a terribly dumb question, but: what exactly do prospects do all winter?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Once the Fall League ends, mostly go home and try not to get fat, some actively work on stuff or try to improve, some play winter league in various Latin countries
GM Guy
12:28
You think BVW has any knowledge on how to organize a scouting department? Thoughts on actually scouting players below A Ball? Is that stuff just still going to be decided by Ricco, Minaya, and co?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
I mean we don't even know if, other than Minaya, everyone else is staying in their current roles. I would imagine BVW will lean on Minaya a good bit for those sorts of things. The decision on scouting below Low-A may be a good indicator of where this is headed.
FanGraph's Lurker
12:29
Chances the Ray's consolidate their middle infield prospect depth for JT Realmuto?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
I could see that. TB certainly has the ammo to do it. ATL is another heavily rumored destination. I could see WSH, but would guess they are quieter this offseason than past years. Seems like JTR and his camp are trying to force a trade and I'd think the Archer deal is where things would start.
Kevin
12:31
Which is scarier to see, a real life actual murderous monster, or a team with no shot at the 2019 playoffs and in desperate need of a rebuild trying to compete one last time?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
B for sure
12:32
I mean I could get away from the monster but kidding yourself about a window of contention? The walls are closing in just thinking about it
Thom
12:33
Will we be referring to FanGraphs as FANG-graphs for the duration of the holiday?
Trent
12:33
What makes this chat "spooky"?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
I think we've answered your question Trent
Randy
12:34
If were Miami would you accept either/both or neither of these trade packages for Realmuto:  (a) K. Tucker, Cionel Perez and Max Stassi / (b) Bukauskus, C. Perez, Freudis Nova and Max Stassi
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Can't imagine HOU would offer Tucker but I think A would get you very close
chris
12:35
I've always wondered as a baseball fan - why should I care about ratings?  I'm watching baseball either way.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Not if you take Smoltz's advice and go outside and kick tree stumps until the game is full of Mark Lemke's
Luis Robert Stevenson
12:36
Do you have a guess for how many years/$$ Nate Eovaldi reaps in FA? Do you think Alex Cora gets a cut, considering how much he used Nate in the WS?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Had him penciled in for 3/45 before the WS, still think it's somewhere around there
RDJR8
12:37
The most staggering thing about the Mets hire is they had a solution right in from of them with Bloom. Comes from a progressive organization, widely touted throughout the league, and the Mets go and think hiring an agent with zero experience in baseball ops....I just don't get how an organization can come to this conclusion, even the Mets
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
This seems to be a common sentiment amongst FG-reading Mets fans. I would caution some patience since we obviously know way less about BVW than the Wilpons do. But yes, on the face, it seems like Bloom is much closer to what they need to become a perennial contender.
Just A Dude
12:39
Reported offer of Soroka+Riley for Realmuto seems a little steep, yeah? Maybe that was just at the deadline with 2.5 years of control but what would you peg as a fair value there between the teams? Or is that still close?
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