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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/19/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
Hello! Slight delay today for some paperwork issues but we're all good now and Scout is napping. Let's see what you people have for me
12:20
Oh, and in the way of promotion, we have a couple fun things coming, I will guess, on Monday. We have a new weekly podcast about prospects and the big leagues, from a front office POV. Here's episode 2: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-...
We also did a refresh of THE BOARD, as our last update before we get into the offseason list time of year
12:21
As always, THE BOARD is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
and the article detailing why some guys are rising is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-final-pro-side-update-to-the-board...
Oyster Burns
12:21
roansy have better upside than justus?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
That's Yankees pitching prospects Roansy Contreras and Justus Sheffield
12:23
Justus' stuff has backed up a bit this year, more 55 stuff from the left side. Roansy is a pop up power arm in short season and he's mid-90's with a plus-flashing slider and usable CH but rough command. Roansy could explode, but there's tons of risk and he's 3-5 years behind Sheffield. Roansy could be better, but they aren't close in overall value right now. There's a 5% chance, maybe less that Roansy could be Luis Severino, which is why I'm hedging a bit.
The Workday is Half Over
12:24
Do I devote my time to work, this chat, or watching the Braves game at 12:10?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Both!
James
12:24
Can Josh James stick in a rotation? Off to a good start.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Feels more like multi-inning relief command to us, but he's already blown away expectations
Fogcode
12:24
Watching Genesis Cabrera last night made me think he could be like Josh Hader if the command and third pitch don't come around. Lazy comp or in the realm?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
That's a pretty big difference. AAA is littered with high-90's guy that are just waiting for that.
Kyle
12:25
Do you think Nolan Gorman can debut in 2020?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Given what guys like Acuna or Vlad Jr. have done lately, if there's a guy with big time tools, and Gorman would generally fit in that category, there is some chance he could go thru 4 levels in 2 years. Would never bet on it, since the team needs to be aggressive w/promotions in addition to the player going nuts. It's very unlikely
Ash
12:26
Where do you stand on Jeff McNeil? Obviously it’s not a huge sample, but it looks right—absolute elite bat control. (Not saying he’s a .340 hitter, but maybe .300-.310)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Eric and I discussed this recently (off-air) and decided he's a 50 FV until we have more. He's been totally generic until recently and he's 26. Some guys that do this generally (Whit Merrifield) turn into dudes, but there's way more guys that have a crazy season and come back to Earth, especially that break out at this age. McNeil played 30 games in High-A as a 25 year old last year. This is nothing close to normal.
Oyster Burns
12:28
prefer tireso orneales or dshawn knowles?
Paul
12:28
Where does Owen Miller rank in the Padres' system?  Seems like he advanced pretty quickly.
Tommy N.
12:28
Is Andres Munoz a 45 FV reliever?
Jason
12:28
Any idea of some deep dynasty pitchers to look for next year, guys like Junior Santos of the Mets saw some time in the GCL?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Here's this week's plug to THE BOARD, because it can answer these questions more comprehensively than I will here, in terms of comps, how close a guy is to a certain level or listing every 18 year old pitcher we kinda like: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
Braves Fan
12:29
Time to start sweating yet? Atlanta sports have left me anxious...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
I mean I'm not a Sarkisian guy, so that limits the upside of the Falcons with boy wonder in SF with Jimmy G
Philosoraptor
12:30
Any idea what the Jays are doing with their scouts? Restructuring?
Destino
12:30
Thoughts about Kingery?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
Addressed both on recent podcasts and this is the reason we include timestamps, so you can skip around and find what you want
12:32
20 min of front office talk here. The audio dropped out a bit when we talked about Toronto. We've heard conflicting things on if they're just going to hire 6 more pro guys to fill the 6 spots, or maybe 4-5 and make a spot in the office, but this isn't an Astros thing.
Talked about Kingery for 7 minutes in episode 1 here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-untitled-mcdo...
12:33
and we're mostly confused and assume it's a mental block or he's hurt, since this doesn't really make sense
Duder
12:33
Ballpark contract guess for Kimbrel this off-season?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Don't have anything on this yet, but I will be taking the Dave Cameron mantle here and being the FG-employed human that guesses contracts for our top 50 FA. WIll start that soon and will have answer for you then! Also, front office/agent people reading this, I will be texting you about this, so kick around some numbers
NattyIce
12:34
pretty surprised to see Rocchio ranked in the top 100. That would have placed him within the top 10 in the last draft. Is his upside really worth that? thanks
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
The question you're asking is valid, but it also represents a style of thinking (a rookie ball guy that doesn't have huge tools/size can't be an elite prospect) that I, and I think Eric, think has been a blindspot in prospect analysis for years. That includes us, the media and scouts/execs alike. Jose Ramirez is one of the top 5 players in baseball and there's lots of other examples of especially smaller infielders drastically outplaying their tools/projections, with athleticism/bat control/feel for the game seemingly being the separator that wasn't factored in nearly enough.
12:37
So, we're leaning more into 1. MLB-ready guys 2. hitters over pitcher when it's close 3. athletic/advanced little guys and possibly 4. above average command/stuff guys more than I'd guess other lists will.
Rocchio fits into this perfectly and we're a little out there since we didn't know anything about him until a few months ago, so there's some volatility in the projection. That said, sometimes a small amount of only positive info is better than more, but mixed info.
Jake Junis Priest
12:38
So the BOARD looks great, except that the Orioles prospects rank really low and are terrible. So I guess what I'm saying is: I hate the BOARD!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
They're improving tho!
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