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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/10/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
Hello from ATL, Scout is napping nearby and I'm back from a week on the road.
12:16
we have lots of futures game thoughts coming soon, including high speed video of every pitcher, a review podcast and updates to our rankings from futures game observations
12:17
and also I just saw college Team USA so we've got a much better idea of the 2020 and beyond draft classes now, so any questions about specific rankings can likely be fielded by THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
to your questions:
Charles
12:18
When is the top 50 most valuable trade chips coming out?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
my next project! finishing up the rankings and writing the capsules now, the whole deal rolls out next Monday
Jake
12:18
How would you order the international draft picks? Worst to best like a normal draft? Or is there a better way?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
The easy answer is the same as the domestic draft, in reverse order of the standings, but I'm open to other ideas?
Christian
12:19
How much money would Jasson Dominguez sign for in a fully open market?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
So he was our 61st prospect in baseball the moment he signed: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
using Craig Edwards research, that prospect is worth roughly $15-30M https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/
12:21
so, in a fully open market, it would be something like that, or half that if there's still an overage penalty
BUT
12:23
Moncada was an older 19 when he signed and had some track record of hitting in events, with similar tools to the 16 year old Dominguez, who doesn't. The Red Sox spent $63 million on Moncada and that was 4 years ago. If Dominguez was in a position like Moncada to have open competitive workouts against top pitching to maximize his payday and he was good in those settings (we've heard he was very impressive against pro arms in workouts, but they were private, so nearly every team didn't see them), then he'd be higher than 61st
12:24
so let's say Dominguez does well, but not amazing in this setting, giving 30 bidding teams more certainty that his hit tool will translate
12:25
He would be 3 years younger than Bobby Witt Jr. with comparable tools/certainty, 6 years younger than Luis Robert, 4 years younger than Pache, etc.
12:26
So you could see some teams, in this alternate scenario, pegging him as a top 20 prospect in baseball
which would put him over $50M
12:27
and with the chance to be basically locked in to $10M, or play some games and maybe get close to $50M in an open market, I bet Dominguez plays a bunch of games and gets near Moncada-level money
and a year or two from now we'll get to see if the hit tool plays in pro ball like this hypothetical posits it may
Kiley’s Inner Voice
12:27
Is cereal a soup?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
FOH
Kiley’s Mom
12:27
When will you give me grandchildren
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
ALSO NOT THE TIME
Hooha
12:28
What are some of your favorite minor league ballparks?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
The new ones in the downtown areas of towns in the south meant to kickstart/enhance development are all solid: montgomery, birmingham, nashville, charlotte, memphis
12:31
also clearwater is the best one in florida
D Back Fan
12:31
You mentioned in last chat that teams will hold back intl money for late bloomers. How likely is it to find a really good late blooming position player?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
much less common than pitchers, unless it's a Cuban that defects, but that isn't a late-bloomer that was passed over. this is because pitcher development isn't linear (the velo/stuff bump happens whenever) while hitter development is often linear (slowly improves, proves it at each level, raw tools are a smaller part of the equation), so the short-term surprises are less common. this is why hitter age matters so much for the draft and pitcher age doesn't matter that much. physical development is one (small) reason, but constantly facing pitching that's older is key for a hitter's projection.
parlay
12:33
You spotlighted Grayson Rodriguez's changeup/screwball from the Futures Game- what impact does that have on your overall evaluation of him in terms of ranking/ceiling?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
not really? it's more describing the flavor of changeup, whereas the weird spin doesn't inherently make it better
Greg
12:35
Couldn't find any information on Mahki Backstrom on the board. What do you guys know about him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Big power, 1B fit, contact issues limit the upside at draft time, but worthy lottery ticket, especially with barren lower levels for ATL
Nate
12:35
Help me feel better about how bad the Giants are by talking about Marco Luciano.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
He's real good! Ranked him as the best 16 year old in his J2 class, consistently bumped him up as he developed well in instructs/extended games for Eric, since we had so few games looks as an amateur. I think we're the only publication with him in the top 100? He'll be there for everyone soon enough.
MiserableSDFan
12:37
Urias has been struggling recently at AAA and the platoon of Greg Garcia and Ian Kinsler is 11th in WAR at 2B since May 1. Think the Padres leave him down a bit longer, possibly through the trade deadline?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
This is a good time to mention I pitched Sporer on a pro Luis Urias fantasy article titled "Feeling Buy Urias?" (hides under table)
Kiley’s Inner Voice
12:39
have you disavowed wheat and dairy yet in an effort to reduce inflammation?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
you know i'm conducting that TB12 method train, brah. strawberries are poison, water can prevent concussions, etc.
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