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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/5/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:06
Hello from ATL. I was trying to finishing editing our podcast we recorded last night about the first 10 rounds but wasn't able to get it down. Should go up shortly after this is done. about 85 minutes with 2-3 minutes of our thoughts on each club, we'll throw in time stamps so you can finally know how much we hate your team
12:07
any of the rest of our draft content interest you? it's in the widget for draft week on the mainpage at https://www.fangraphs.com/
and pretty much anything else you'll need can be found at THE BOARD, which was up to the second with who has been drafted where, but round 11 just started so now I need to go update that after this chat as well

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...
To your questions:
LudeBurger
12:08
Kiley, dude, bro, woah. How? Man, you're a monster for doing this chat after Monday's epoque
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:08
Once you don't sleep that much, spewing out thoughts in all mediums just kinda runs together
Larry
12:08
This Braves draft ... can you provide reasons for optimism?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:09
You could probably sense in our day 1 review that we weren't as enthused by the value the Braves got at their picks as we were with other clubs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-review/
12:10
that said, taking Langeliers a few picks before we would is kinda splitting hairs and he has been hot lately. Shewmake was more comp to early 2nd for us because there isn't a 60 tool and the swing needs a tweak, but he's exactly the kind of guy that does well in models because an infielder that's performed for three years in the SEC and two summer for team USA is really likely to have a big league future of some kind and give you a positive ROI. Philip was likely below slot and Eric wasn't on him much, but there's some tools and a utility upside, small chance for more.
12:11
So, even a club where we weren't enthused about any one of the picks, it isn't hard to imagine them ending up with one of the best draft if all these top picks hit like a 60-80 percentile outcome, which isn't impossible for 2-3 guys to do
and when you can't trade picks and Langeliers/Shewmake were not getting to their next picks...it's kinda splitting hairs about value in that way.
12:12
Going back to the picks coming off the board now
12:13
The 11th round is typically the guy you saved or sometimes hid for a 125k to 500k bonus, since it comes with a 125k discount on the pool once you're past the 10th round
12:14
Dachsbach to BAL is a solid power bat that is likely overslot. McMillon to DET has 70 raw power but also up to 99 on the mound and likely is a pro pitcher, but hit/command have been issues. Feole to SDP has a plus hook from the left side, low 90's, could probably handle multiple innings long-term.
SFG took Trevor McDonald, pop up prep arm, likely relief, but up to 95 with an above breaker at times
12:15
PIT took Jase Bowen multi-sport prep athlete, guessing overslot there as well
Carter Bins to SEA, was our top college guy left on the board, not sure what happened there but he was a 3rd-5th rounder for us
12:16
Vaughn Grissom to the Braves was the SS on Riley Greene's team and picked the right team to be on so he was scouted a lot when he emerged this spring. Probably 3B long term, but solid avg raw, athlete, feel to hit, we like him
okay back to the chat
Chunky Gee
12:16
Jon Daniels says the Rangers haven't changed draft philosophies, but after being one of the most prep-heavy and tools-oriented teams in recent years, they went mostly college in Day 1 and 2, and with more refined/quality hit tool guys.  Is this just a matter of who was available, or are the Rangers getting away from the toolsheds at the top of the draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
Usually don't assume a strategic change after a handful of high picks, but it would appear there's at least a slight adjustment, similar to KCR last year
12:19
sorry just stepped outside to see what scout was doing and she was digging her deepest hole yet and was really excited about it
Matthew Allan
12:19
Why would I be willing to sign for less than my reported asking price to the Mets instead of going to college?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
We heard $4M for awhile then heard some whispers of slightly below that a couple times the week leading up to the draft. So if it's $3.75M, I wouldn't be surprised
Greg
12:20
Had you heard of Stephen Paolini before the Braves took him in the fifth round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
Nope and we asked a few clubs (don't really have time to comprehensively chase down every name) and they knew the name but weren't on him.
JK
12:21
When's the next mock?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
So we have 181 players ranked for the 2020 draft and an update coming to the other boards with player we don't think will sign and that will be live with the click of a button...I hope that's enough for you
Larry
12:22
Atlanta will send Michael Harris out as a hitter -- what's his upside there? Any major concerns about him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
He's top 5 rounds both ways and I don't know this with Harris but usually in this scenario the kid wants to hit first. Probably better as a pitcher but can't hurt to find out how the bat plays and save some miles on the arm
jballallen
12:23
Who in this year's draft would be the most likely to contact an NPB team about a deal?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Probably Matt Allan, but I wouldn't anticipate that
Paps
12:24
On the next 100+ prospects update, will you be adjusting tool grades or just moving players around?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
We'll adjust them where they need to be, but it usually will just be  small handful of player notably changing tool grades in the first month of the season
well I guess we're at 2 months now
Kvn
12:24
Any trends you noticed in the draft that surprised you?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Not that surprised me and some of these are in the day 1 recap or the podcast that will go up soon. Arizona taking Trackman friendly high slot pitchers was one, Texas going college was one, Braves as discussed was one, NYM under a former agent going bold was one, Miami under a new director taking 3 guys we liked up top was one
12:28
was just forwarded a report that Allan's bonus is expected to be $3M, so that's much lower than $4M but also not confirmed
Connor
12:28
Are there any teams who you think still have some money to make a run at a high bonus guy today?
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