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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/26/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:47
Hello from ATL! Starting a little early and will run a bit shorter today since I'm tightly scheduled on my last day before I head to Florida for the MLB PDP event, my first of summer showcase season
As always, all our content and the graduation tracker are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/
11:48
and THE BOARD with all our real-time rankings of every non-big-league baseball player on Earth of consequence is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
11:49
and the big content this week is the unveiling of the J2 Board, with a preview and links to everything here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/july-2-international-amateur-p...
to your questions:
Greg
11:49
I think you said last week 65% chance Matt Allan signs. Where would you put that percentage now?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:49
Maybe 75% now that it's clear there is exactly $2.5M sitting there and just him left? About the same as last time.
11:51
I would also point out that it isn't a coincidence Allan was taken in the 3rd round. The last round where you get a comp pick if he doesn't sign, which gives NYM added leverage but inherently means either 1) there wasn't a rock solid done deal when Allan was drafted or 2) there was another team set to take him right behind the Mets. I think both may be true.
Paul
11:51
Why did someone not pay Kumar Rocker whatever his price was last year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:52
Sounds like it was $4Mish and no matter how good you are, that kind of price on a prep RHP will get you to school almost every time. Cole Wilcox, Jack Leiter, etc.
CJ
11:52
Who are your favorite under the radar DSL/AZL prospects?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:53
These guys are all getting added to THE BOARD as we hear about them, so I would just sort by age/level or look for DSL-only stats on the swirl board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&...
11:54
btw, I should mention the swirl board that has scouting info and stats and all kinds of filtering options is super cool
Jeff
11:54
Rangers 7th rounder Brandon Sproat said he won't sign and is heading to U Florida. Any chance Texas can make a late run at him? Seems strange for them to take him in the 7th there and not sign him.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:56
That one was interesting b/c I heard his number was at least $1 million during the spring, then after he was taken top 10 rounds, I heard it was lower, so assumed TEX had a deal in place. Sometimes feelings/numbers change or the college gets to the kid and that drives things. UF also has Matthew Allan and Hunter Barco hanging out in the gray area of pro/school
Andrew
11:56
Howdy Kiley. What kind of player do you expect Adam Haseley to be/why? He seems to have fallen just outside of top 100s despite being pretty productive in the minors so it's hard finding thorough reads on his status.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:56
We think he's pretty likely to be a 50 FV/2 WAR guy for a nice stretch but probably not much more than that
Jim Leyland Palmer
11:57
Is there anyway Rocker could be eligible for next year's draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:57
would have to transfer to a JC
Jack
11:57
So what’s the deal with the Phillies international class? Why no top prospects?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:57
Been getting this question a lot, about different teams. The yearly reminder:
11:58
Lots of top int'l prospects don't get much of a bonus and some orgs are good year in and year out at turning low bonus guys into prospects, with PHI maybe one of the best. NYY gets attention for the seven figure guys but their team list is littered with guys that signed for anywhere from $10k to $200k
Sixto Sanchez was $60k
11:59
So, while it's becoming more common for top J2 prospects to then become top MILB prospects and then be 21 year old MLB stars, it DOES NOT mean you team is dumb or lazy b/c they don't have a player in our top 40, however much you want to believe it. They may still be dumb or lazy, but that's not the way you can tell these things
12:00
and PHI specifically was locked onto Yhoswar Garcia early, who we had 6th in the class and later was suspended a year for falsifying his identity, so they actually were set to sign one of the guys you wanted them to get. We've heard them tied to the Taiwanese prospects as well. PHI signed an Aussie RHP for high six figures a few weeks ago and are pretty active in the Pacific Rim.
Mike
12:01
Any recommendations for players to watch on the Cape this Summer?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:01
It would take too long to go team-by-team, but THE BOARD has hundreds and hundreds of names, so you can do a quick 10 minute scan of the rosters before or at the park and see which have prospect value
12:02
2020, 2021 and 2022 boards are all pretty robust right now
Anthony
12:02
Was Austin Martin well-regarded out of high school? His SEC career numbers are bonkers for a guy I don't remember hearing much about before this season
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:04
Yep he was one of those 500k type kids with contact skills and feel but not loud tools and I believe his number was well over $1M, which is typical for the guys that emerge at top programs. That was also the story on Dansby Swanson, but he was more athleticism and feel but not so much on skills until college.
Tito
12:04
I’m a Cleveland native and considering coming to the FG meetup at Speakeasy. Do you have any more details on what the panel questions will consist of/any other notables for the event? Excited to have you all in NE Ohio!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:04
We have had some conversations about the specific structure of things, but we are still hammering it out. I project 70-grade fun
but like 30-grade seriousness
12:05
Meg can probably speak more to what can currently be said about things, as she will be moderating
But you should all come out and drink with us
Tito
12:05
How do you each compile your scouting notes? Is there a Fangraphs database in excel or SQL that you upload everything into, do you have your own personal databases, or do you just go old fashioned with your notes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:06
I take notes in a notebook or sometimes on the roster given to me at the game, then rewrite those into a digital format that feeds into the board
since we've tried to cut out extra processes, we're doing a lot more of taking notes from the game notebook and putting them straight on the board, because having your own spreadsheets and rankings and then the public ones makes it impossible to update all the different places at once with new info
12:07
so the 2020 draft board has tons of reports from Eric directly from the first event of the summer and i'll jump in and add stuff after I've been to a few over the next few weeks
Tito
12:07
Would a scout get ridiculed if they took their notes on an iPad at a game? Or are some scouts starting to transition to digital notetaking?
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