JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/19/19

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/19/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:20

Hello from ATL! I'm on the couch and Scout is on her bed eyeballing my lunch, which is leftover meat I grilled last night

12:21

(andouille sausage, shrimp, chicken thighs for those curious)

12:22

I would normally link to all the stuff I wrote the last week but I was commanded to not do stuff this week

but here's the FG prospects page where all our stuff is, including the graduation monitor so you know when guys will graduate from our lists: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

12:24

and also Eric and I have quietly done lots of work on the 2020 draft rankings, which one scout called "absurd" yesterday and I wasn't sure if that was good or bad: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...

showcase season has begun, as Eric was at the first event of the summer and I'm going to the next two (PDP and college team USA)

to your questions:

Owen

12:24

Any day 1 guys that won't sign?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

haven't heard anything specific on a stone cold won't sign and it's too early for rumors to be much more than posturing

12:28

the exception would be the yearly occurrence or two of the post-verbal-deal-physical where something new is found, b/c that usually the source of at least half the first 2 day guys that don't sign

12:29

I bet that happens a half dozen times per year and 1-2 of those can't be resolved, but haven't heard of any yet

and lots of post 10th round HS players have already been announced, heard there are a good bit more coming

Mike

12:29

Hey Kiley - are you planning to update the BOARD for J2? Any Red Sox targets?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

there will be more added to the J2 board but probably not as much as last year. we can have those guys pegged for team lists after instructs and most amateur scouts (from the 29 teams that didn't sign the players) haven't seen the players for over a year in most cases. seems a little silly to go insane about how good they are on 7/2 then have them really jumbled again in October. The ones that matter, the top guys, are the ones we set on there months ago

dylanram

12:31

Did the Padres spend too much on Hudson Head?

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

we'll find out in a few years. we were the high guys on him and had him 90th overall. granted we've never seen him before, so there's a solid error bar on just video/sources on a popup hitter, given that the opinions don't flow as much when guys aren't widely known and we haven't seen him on the showcase circuit. but between the 22nd/23rd slot for a guy most teams had in the 3rd round is pretty steep, though SD has a pretty good track record when they're out on a limb on a guy

David

12:34

How much do you miss publicly trolling and otherwise humiliating Cistulli?

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

i'm not sure he can be humiliated? but yes

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:37

Who would you rather have the next 5 years: Josh Naylor or Dom Smith?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

lean smith

Miggy

12:37

Adonis Medina a mlb starter in your eyes?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

this offseason it was probably yes, so far this year it's now leaning towards probably no

Alan

12:38

I know you guys were not high on the Braves draft from what you wrote at the end of day two. Does their approach and signing from day three change anything?

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

yep it obviously looks better in retrospect by going underslot on almost every pick and adding some solid HS guys past the 10th. go back to the last chat for my explanation why not liking a draft still could mean it'll end up being on of the best. grabbing some lottery tickets helps that

Go Cubs

12:41

Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio's upside?

Kiley McDaniel

12:43

could be like really, really good. he was on of the guys that, in the post-draft top 100 re-ranking, we had to ask ourselves "would this guy go 1st or 2nd in the draft if the current version of him was eligible"

12:44

and obviously, being ranked back-to-back with Witt says he'd go 2nd or 3rd. almost a full year younger than Witt, performing in Low-A, switch hitter, potential above offense and defense but more of the long, lean smooth athlete than the more power/explosion type Witt is.

Baloo

12:44

Gut feeling, do you think Matt Boyd will be traded? What would you expect as a return, in terms of Top X prospects and/or FV?

Kiley McDaniel

12:45

i'm in the middle of doing the trade value rankings right now, so in like a week or so i'll have a much better answer to this question

Miggy

12:46

Fantasy question: preferred long term SS- Chisholm, Brujan, Hoerner?

Kiley McDaniel

12:46

gimme brujan

12:47

and for other questions like this that i don't answer, using the future grades on hit/game power/speed and rounding up/down on age/performance will probably 90% match my answers here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

Deivi Garcia

12:47

I'm only 64th on THE BOARD? Did you see my line last night?!

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

we also continue to be aware of your size. if you were 6'4/220 you'd be about where you think you should be, like top 30

Baloo

12:48

Do you think some part of the Mariners taking Juan Then as the return for EE is them hoping to get some info on the Yankees' pitcher dev practices?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

no

bb

12:49

So, Mr. Sunshine, what bums you out?

Kiley McDaniel

12:50

hmmm well mostly like fan bases that have had lots of success complaining about the one weaker spot in their org. or bill simmons having a podcast where he just complains about his fantasy team and how boston has been robbed of multiple titles by the refs

Charlie

12:51

You aren't hearing anything on Dalquist/Thompson not signing with the CWS right? Little weird to me the top 3 picks haven't signed when everyone else has they should know exactly how much $$ they have right?

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

i don't know that this is what's happening, but it's common for the overslot HS pick to be the last one to sign, once it's clear the absolute max you can offer and it's a take it or leave it situation

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