JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/13/18

Kiley McDaniel

11:52

Hello from a McDonald's in Tampa where I'm setting up shop for a bit before I hit a few games today, then hit PG National starting tomorrow, which is the first stop on HS showcase season for the 2019 Draft

Anonymous

11:55

When evaluating college players, what specific stats, if any, do you look at when trying to figure out if the player will be a productive player at a higher level?

Kiley McDaniel

11:57

BB/K ratio and ISO for hitters are both big. BB/K for pitchers too also tells a lot of what you need to know. If you're bad at controlling the strike zone at the amateur level, it's an uphill climb

Also, this chat will run a little shorter than usual, but I usually go over the alotted hour so I feel like we're all okay with this every now and then

Teddy

11:57

Hey Kiley, can you expand on the Brett Cumberland just to the top 100? Is it about the defense taking a step forward? The offense doesn't look very impressive this year on paper.

Kiley McDaniel

11:59

It's a 120 wRC+ in basically a full year in Hi-A at age 21/22 with plus raw power, a late-count, lofted power approach and the frame/defense have improved this year. He was also in the top of the 45 tier, so he was around 150-200 already and like 20 guys graduated, so he would've been right around 130-150 if he hadn't improved at all.

John

11:59

Do you prefer that starting pitchers throw a curveball or a slider?

Kiley McDaniel

12:00

Depends on the arm slot and their feel for the pitch. In general I prefer a slider since it's a little easier to control, but it has a wider platoon split.

Mike

12:00

Do you like Cumberland over Contreras as the Braves' catcher of the future?

Kiley McDaniel

12:01

We have Cumberland ranked higher but they aren't the same sort of guy. Cumberland is more of a catches for 4-6 years then probably ends up more like an offensive backup that you DH or find a spot for in the lineup. Contreras has a chance to be the bell cow everyday type, it's just early. Talked to a scout a few days ago who didn't love the approach/swing with Contreras but said he thought he could catch.

12:02

I liked the approach/swing when I saw him last year, but these things shift around early in careers

Matt

12:02

Thanks for taking the time to chat. Maybe this is nitpicking, but I feel like Soto should be ranked third at the lowest. He's killing it in the big leagues right now, in contrast to all the guys you have ahead of him- Robles, Jimenez, Bichette, etc. Woud you say you have some doubts about his defense, lack of power ceiling, etc?

Kiley McDaniel

12:03

Not an insane point. We also like to try to keep things in perspective, like we were high on Soto to put him in the top 50 with almost no pro track record, then he got promoted faster than any teenager has ever, now he's had a fast couple weeks...this isn't gonna keep happening at this level and he isn't a speed/defense guy, so when it settles down, we think it'll be in the same area as the Kyle Tucker/Bo Bichette types who are also gonna get a taste this year and probably will have a scorching hot week or two at some point early in their careers and have comparable tools but more track record

Max

12:04

So Nick Madrigal is Luis Urias with more speed?

Kiley McDaniel

12:06

Something like that. If Madrigal performs the way we think he can, he'll be ranked in a similar if not higher area than Urias.

Josh Nelson

12:06

Last year at this time, Brice Turang was a popular choice last year to go #1 in the 2018 MLB Draft. While Bobby Witt is the popular pick for 2019, will prospect fatigue hit Witt like it did with Turang?

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

It wasn't prospect fatigue, he was a lesser player. I've seen this with commenters/tweeters talking about Hankins or McClanahan too. We don't just get tired of prospects and move them down. Go look at the comments under some of our mock drafts about these guys and how we're nuts to have them going almost exactly where they ended up going. We aren't always right, but we don't move guys down a ton based on some fleeting info or feelings, it's coming from a lot of places. In the same way we're hesitant to say Juan Soto is Acuna, we're hesitant to move a guy down when there's a couple years of people saying a player is a top tier guy. The industry is the same way and more than one team's draft model accounts for this sort of thing.

Devon

12:09

Big fan of yours, Kiley! What are your thoughts on Eric Pardinho? Will his size limit his upside?

Kiley McDaniel

12:10

I think so, the stuff is average to a little above and you have to bank on physical maturity and natural gain of strength getting it to where it needs to be because there isn't physical projection

Tommy N.

12:10

Weathers just miss the 131 list?

Kiley McDaniel

12:11

Yeah, if you look at the draft board here https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all...

we put FV's on each player and the updated top 131 here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/ is all the 50's

So you can get a general idea of where a guy would slot, look at the MILB board to get an idea of how many total 45s there are, etc.

12:12

But all those guys will be folded into the board in the next week or two. And the July 2 and 2019/2020/2021 draft boards will all get updated too. And I'm doing the trade value list damn I have a lot of work to do

Hannah Hochevar

12:12

Sadface not seeing any O's on the 131 list. I know it's cause there's so much great, generational young talent already graduated to the majors, but can you give me some hope?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

You're gonna trade Machado and Britton soon. I mean I hope you are.

Rick C

12:13

I was surprised by some of your Braves rankings on the recent prospects list update. Mainly, the inclusion of Cumberland (and that he would be ahead of Contreras), and the exclusion of Wilson. Can you elaborate on those decisions?

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

Some ardent Bryse Wilson fans out there. Still have the same thing on him as in the offseason: plus fastball, plus competitiveness, above control, the rest is mostly average. He's a high 45 that you could tag on the back of the list if you want, but we lean towards hitters in general.

Mike

12:14

Do draftees generally not sign until they've bowed out of the NCAA tournament? Still waiting on Singer & the like to sign

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

Yes, can't sign until they're done. Well, they can, but they couldn't play college ball anymore.

Parts + Gleyber

12:15

Last week you posted Pusha T as an inducement to happiness, and I just wanted to say that it worked.

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

Pusha T brings happiness and one other thing to the party

Christian

12:15

Seuly Matias has a HR rate of 10%, not HR/FB rate, HR rate.

Kiley McDaniel

12:16

He's really leaning into the whole chicas dig el long ball thing

Ozzie A.

12:16

As a Braves fan, I can’t help but feel a little more than slightly entertained about the outrage over the rankings of certain prospects. But tbh, I can see where some would question based solely on their stat lines, but regular readers of this site and your prospect coverage should know those aren’t always indicative of past or future success in the minors, much less the majors.

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

Also the deluge of questions about why the guy they think should be 16th is actually 12th and the guy that should be 10th is 13th. It's kinda confusing.

Ozzie A.

12:17

Btw, thanks for the hard work.

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

you're welcome ozzie

Amir

12:17

Seeing that Austin Beck failed to crack your Top 131 - is it time to label that pick a mistake?

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

lol no take it easy guys. I mean I wouldn't have picked him there but it's far from a mistake right now