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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/18/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:10
Hello everyone, I'm in the South right now live from a Courtyard. I saw Ethan Hankins on Monday, Cole Wilcox and Chattanooga-Jacksonville last night. The plan is to see Kumar Rocker tonight, Anthony Seigler tomorrow, Casey Mize on Friday then head back to Florida for Wichita/UCF and Auburn/Florida.
Also Eric and I put up an updated draft top 55 today: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/
12:11
and we'll have a mock draft going up tomorrow
Tommy N.
12:11
Kelenic has risen to 8 on your updated rankings do you think the Padres could snag him at 7?
Freddy
12:11
Any idea who Atlanta is connected with?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:12
Okay lots of mock questions seems like you guys are interested in what we're hearing and also can't wait 24 hours lol
Here's what I will say
12:13
There appears to be a top 4-6, depending on who you ask and those will probably be the top 4-6 picks in some order. After that (specifically SD at 7 and ATL at 8, and so on) the questions are many and there isn't much clarity. Most prospects haven't even had signability meetings with their advisors yet, so teams obviously don't know what prices are and the top tier scouts are still getting second looks at the top targets
12:14
Now we know tendencies, we've been to lots of top games and take notes on who is watching whom at each game, other teams will tell us who is where, etc. and we have a pretty good feel for industry consensus evaluations of the top of the draft...but multiple GMs have told us they don't expect things to get narrowed down to a small group to choose from until much closer to draft time and maybe until they get in the room (2-3 weeks before the draft) and this is from teams in the top 10.
Joe
12:15
Depressed Royals fan here, make me feel better about our farm please? Say nice things about Matias and Khalil Lee?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
We will be updating the top 100 regularly throughout the season (more on that soon) and Eric and I have a short list of guys who will move on due to hurt pitchers, bad spring training/early season looks and graduated prospects. Matias is one of those top few guys.
MaineBall
12:16
How much of Conine’s swing and miss problem can be attributed to him pressing to impress scouts and can it be easily fixed once he reaches pro ball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
He was scouted a decent amount in HS and a lot on the Cape, has always had a target on him due to his last name so I don't think that's it. He has huge exit velos/power so I think he just tried to hit for more power and overcorrected.
Josh Nelson
12:17
What are your thoughts regarding Nander De Sedas?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Covered it in the comments of the rankings article but he didn't hit as much as people thought over the summer (it was .180 or so over multiple events) and hasn't changed that this spring. I should see him shortly after being rained out a few times.
John S
12:19
What's going on with Josh Naylor?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Seems to be hitting pretty well right now. I know SD was working on quieting his swing a bit, saw some interesting drills they were using to that end. Now I'm curious to see if his swing is noticeably different or he's just hot.
Joe
12:20
This Griffin Canning guy, how close was he to the top 100? Do you think he'll be in the top 50 in 2019's list of the velocity gains stick around and he doesn't suddenly have command issues?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
He may be the top guy that will be added to the 100 in a few weeks. Slipped due to medical concerns but wasn't hurt and now he's still not hurt and throwing harder so that's obviously less of a concern.
Joe D
12:22
Who are your top 5 international prospect for the next July 2nd signing period?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Eric and I haven't worked out exactly how we want to rank them, but the roughly $2M+ bonuses should be:
Diego Cartaya, C, VZ
Marco Luciano, SS, DR
Noelvi Marte, SS, DR
Orelvis Martinez, SS, DR
Alejandro Pie, SS, DR
Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Jose De La Cruz, OF, DR
12:24
There's more at the ~$1.3M area and a couple of those may be more mid to high 1's, but you get the idea
Hinkie
12:24
Any truth to the "Casey Mize has an iffy elbow" rumor ?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
He missed some time with arm stuff last year and teams don't have his medical. He's been healthy since then and doesn't look hurt at all right now. Who knows what the medical will say, but unless he's not pitching due to injury I wouldn't worry about him any more than I would for any other healthy pitcher.
Ben
12:26
Hey Kiley,
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Hey
Waltharius
12:26
Which Padres prospect are you most impressed so far? Any out of top 100 who has a shot at sneaking into that of next iteration?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Tirso Ornelas is the hot name in that system
Mark
12:26
Daulton Varsho has gotten off to a hot start. What does his trajectory look like?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
He's a really unique prospect. Above average runner, squatty body, could play C or 2B, has some pop and real ability to hit. Not sure how it ends up but it's real.
Oddball Herrera
12:27
I'm sure I'm the ONLY one here with a Tyler O'Neill question...top prospects article  from Herr Longenhagen references a stance/swing change. You buying the improvements or is it just a hot streak (or a little of both)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Steady gradual improvements, always had tools, we're in (if our ranking on the top 100 didn't already indicate that) https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/
Greg
12:28
Joey Bart sounds like a top 5 pick to me, yes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
More 6-10
But one team in the top 5 is taking a long look at him
Sonny
12:29
Is Ozzie at 2B because he's better there than Dansby would be or because Dansby is the better SS?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
They would both be above average at both spots and have shown that in the past
Johnny Tonny
12:30
Why aren't you and Longenhagen verified on twitter? You guys should get on that, it'll make a difference in the number of views your articles will get.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
Not sure who to ask about this but I guess I'm asking the internet to do it now GOTTA GET THEM CLICKZ
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