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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 3/6/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Hello from ATL where Scout is laying on her bed but you can tell she's gonna pop up and ask to go outside as soon as the neighbor dogs start barking
12:19
and if you're in Phoenix this weekend, come meet the FG Staff https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-meetup-scottsdale-march-8/
Mark
12:20
Any high school pitchers that you think can jump into the top 5?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Feels like there will be a lot of draft questions today, so here's our updated rankings for those interested, and the dropdown at the top brings you to 2020 and 2021 rankings as well: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...
12:23
Daniel Espino is the top prep arm right now but has his first real game this weekend. Buzz has been positive about progress with feel, but he's also a shorter prep righty where velocity is still a big part of the package and the arm swing is really long.  Doesn't mean he won't be really good, but teams are really wary of prep RHP and to take one that high, you need it all to line up. Add that with the recent track record of prep arms that sit 95+ not being very positive in terms of health/development and I can't see him getting to top 5, maybe 8-10 if he really shoves all spring. Matt Allan is in the discussion right behind him, then there's a pretty big dropoff.
12:25
Matt Manning went late top 10 and had a really good frame, top end athlete, two 65-70 grade pitches and even some teams wouldn't take him up there.
Dan
12:25
Based on initial reports, if you could re-do the 2018 IFA's over, would anything change in your order of the top five young pitchers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Not really. Osiel Rodriguez and Richard Gallardo are still both really close, so those could flip back and forth for awhile, but there hasn't been a lot of movement with that group in general
Ron
12:27
Just read the Ringer article about scouting, really enjoyed. What does BC means in those scouting reports?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Those have been good indeed, here's today's part 2: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/6/18252369/cincinnati-reds-scouti...
I just CTRL+F'd bc in both articles and found nothing...???
Joe
12:29
Hi Kiley, any books/articles/podcasts/videos etc that helped you when learning how to scout?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
I read Dollar Sign on the Muscle, which is kinda the only "scouting book" and it's been awhile but it struck me as more stories and anecdotes than a how to type deal
12:31
Would you buy a book about scouting (how to, what lifestyle is like, tips, how grades jive w/TrackMan, etc.)
Yeah, probably (64.4% | 134 votes)
 
I'm good (35.6% | 74 votes)
 
Total Votes: 208
SAL fan
12:31
I know it is very early in the season, and suspect competition, but Elijah Cabell has had some very loud HR (and Ks, too).  Has he climbed much up THE BOARD?  Could he be a first rounder in 2020?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
Could be, still has plus bat speed and 65 or 70 raw, still lots of K's and corner outfield fit, so needs to clean that up a bit
12:32
Scout pupdate: super excited that the food robot has declared it lunch time
(I bought an automatic timed feeder so she stops bugging me about food and instead bugs the food robot)
SEC Guy
12:33
Thomas Dillard at Ole Miss has started off on a tear.  I gather than positional limitations are a strike against him, but if he keeps mashing, could be make an appearance on the draft Board?  Maybe a 2nd/3rd rounder?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
He is on THE BOARD in the others of note, for we have noticed his hot start and I've always been a fan. Another 65 or 70 raw power type from both sides of the plate but has some bat speed, it isn't just pure strength. Unfortunately can't really catch so it's probably a 1B fit, thus he needs to mash and have more BB than K in college, but maybe that's happening. Could be a 40 in another month or so
Fangraphs Reader
12:35
Is there a bias against international pitchers?  A quick look at the qualified pitchers shows only 9 of the 57 were signed as IFAs, which seemed a little unbalanced.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Baseball is pretty open minded about letting people play if they're good. I think it may be more a question about the training/weeding out process for amateurs in Latin America. Lots of hitters convert to pitching, almost none go the other way, so I feel like there's a bias to starting as a hitter. Also, there has there's a little more focus on velo than game pitching compared to US amateurs, but that has been changing lately. I could see that ratio shifting a bit in the future
Jonathan
12:37
I absolutely love what you guys have done this winter.  One hopefully constructive comment:  the histograms you guys have produced to estimate likely future WAR are often far, far more optimistic than historical data suggest (see Wang's work and the many follow-up studies).  Do you guys have plans to tether those histograms to historical outcomes one day?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
In the top 100 we explained how we landed on those odds: empirical odds, then tweak them a bit based on the type of prospect it is. We could just give every 55 FV hitter the same odds, but obviously one in Triple-A and Low-A are a little different, even all else equal.
12:39
The overall odds within a prospect tier are still within a handful of percentage points of the empirical outcomes, so if you see a guy with a really low bust percentage (like Brandon Lowe, who maintained eligibility by a few PA), that's because he's at the extreme end, and some guys really far away in that 50 FV hitter group have higher than baseline bust rates to make up for it
12:40
It's still weird to say a guy is a Top 100 caliber hitter  in Low-A then say its a 53% chance he basically does nothing in the big leagues, but the last few decades of baseball say that's about fair
It would be insane to say Lowe has a 53% of doing nothing, when you could argue he's already beat that level of performance, or could in another month or two
NYTT
12:40
Is Alex Jackson a prospect or just a guy having a good spring?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
More of a power over defense over bat backup that could be a solid role player, but def a prospect, he's a solid, higher-end 40 FV
a 40+ FV, to be exact
v2micca
12:42
Been reading more and more about the acrimony generated between player and franchise during arbitration hearings.  I was wondering, if a player was openly gay, would an organization try to use that against them in arbitration, likely masking behind weasel words, or would they determine that it was a line they didn't want to cross.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
Don't think we'll ever see that, since there's likely a more compelling argument that it's a positive PR-wise for the club and there have been players that have successfully argued that being the face of the franchise in marketing materials is a tiebreaker in these hearings
Cliff
12:43
What type of player do you see the Dodgers targeting in the draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
LA is an interesting group when it comes to the draft. They're a progressive club in general, but lean a bit to the tools and makeup types in the draft that more traditional type clubs tend to take. Doing what works is much better than any specific approach and it seems to be working for them
12:45
as for a WAG that makes some sense at 25 and 31, I bet they're into Will Wilson from NC State if he gets there and lots of the pitchers we have ranked around 25-31 make sense, like Manoah and Stinson
Roger
12:46
Could Mauricio Llovera pull a Seranthony Dominguez this year? Are there similarities in their game?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
from his report "He probably isn’t a 180 inning starter, but Llovera will be one to watch early in 2019 to see what sort of stuff he’s showing. He could be the next Phillies Latin power arm to be moved to relief who then shoots to the big leagues after Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano. We like the makeup and ability to make adjustments, so expect his grade to be higher in 2019 if he continues doing what he did in 2018."
mike
12:47
The Twins just traded for the right to spend more money in IFA..... Is it useful at this late date? How so? Thanks
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