JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel

12:03

Hello from sunny Orlando. I am prepared to chat with you.

Jared

12:03

Hi Kiley.

steev

12:03

Hi Kiley,

Kiley McDaniel

12:03

You guys are so formal, you can just skip to calling me biased next time

Alex

12:04

Hi Kiley, what are your thoughts on Cristian Pache's ultimate offensive ceiling? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel

12:06

He's an interesting one. I've joked that he's an LSU wide receiver athletically, so almost anything is possible in the long-term. More practically he needs to refine the approach and lift the ball a little more, but he's also a 70 runner and if doesn't improve at all he's something like Kevin Pillar, which may not be what Braves fans want but that's an everyday guy.

12:07

How would you define a successful offseason for teams like the Twins, Jays, Rockies, etc. who are behind the rest of the wild card field? The Twins in particular are on the upswing but seemingly aren't a big FA signing (e.g. Darvish) from catching Cleveland or the wild card favorites.

Kiley McDaniel

12:08

These are tough ones to define because one of them could easily be in the 70's in wins next year and one could make the playoffs, so the "successful" offseason would be acting toward that end before you know which way the breaks will fall. They are all three at 79-84 wins right now, so in general I'd say multiple moves to get to 85-88 (if you have the money) or trusting the kids (if you have them) is the general correct move generically speaking.

Dez

12:09

Can Gleyber Torres be a 3 win player for NY in 2018? How many wins is he worth in his prime?

Kiley McDaniel

12:10

Sure he could be, I mean look what Bellinger and Judge did last year as elite but not top-10 overall prospect. I would say 3-4 wins at peak with an outside shot for more.

SSS

12:11

Any thoughts on Alex Kiriloff? He dropped far in all the rankings despite a great 2016, and the fact that his TJ was on his non-throwing arm. It won’t hurt his hit tool or power will it?

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

Tend to agree, more that he hasn't played much in pro ball and lost some name hype as a result than his long-term outlook has changed. I was bullish on him the summer before he was drafted and still am. Not enormous upside since he's a corner OF without a 7 tool, but there's a broad base of tools and skills.

Barry

12:12

Who will win more World Series titles in the next 5 years, Yankees or Astros?

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

I'll go with Yankees since they have the money to add a couple 5-6 win players via 2019 free agency whereas the Astros seem to be scraping up against their payroll ceiling. Plus the playoffs are kinda random anyway. They would both be in my top 5 for this sort of exercise though, maybe top 3. Cubs and Dodgers are probably the other two on that level. May be an interesting article!

capconstrained

12:14

When rating prospects, do you think in terms of base, breakout and bust cases? Do you also attach a probability to each case?

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

I do, in part because I'm kinda OCD about rankings so just saying hey I prefer that guy, I feel like I need more evidence than that to feel good about it. We may be rolling out some versions of this in the future as well.

Jared

12:16

Who are you taking between Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams? How do you see each of their careers going?

Kiley McDaniel

12:16

I'll take Sheffield. I'm doing the NYY list after the ATL list, so you'll find out soon enough.

Ted

12:16

Under the radar guy to become the top righty pitching prospect in baseball?

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

Eric and I talked about that for a bit last night and Nate Pearson came up as a guy that could explode. I remembered that when I saw him last spring I saw some parallels to Tyler Glasnow, who did just that. Not the same player, obviously, but shape of the breaking ball, long stride, some mechanical stuff, big guy with big arm speed, etc. there's some similar stuff going on...but when it comes to pitching prospects, if I talk long enough I pretzel myself into ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Darryl

12:19

If you had to pick a core of 4-5 guys (from one team) for the next 5 years, who are you taking?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

Another good article idea! Lots of fun options but I would want to take some time and make sure I don't forget anyone. Obviously those four teams referenced above would be in the mix.

Erik

12:19

Will Willians Astudillo ever get to be my favorite major-leaguer, or will he remain my favorite minor-leaguer forever?Has there ever been a player remotely like him?

Kiley McDaniel

12:20

I don't have encyclopedic knowledge of minor leaguers, but I'm not aware of one. I think he'll be a career AA/AAA player, but there if he hangs around long enough, he could be the 4th catcher for a team with a couple injuries and maybe gets that cup of coffee

Erik

12:21

Start with a hitter who has a 50 in all five major tools. For every five points you move a tool up, you have to move another down ten. What is the best player you can construct this way? (Bonus points, who does that player most resemble?)

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

So I'd 20 out the throw and run and make him a 1B. That gets me to 60 hit, 70 power and 50 defense. That's something like a 3-win player so I'll take it

Jake Mintz

12:24

Do I know you from bumble?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

You probably only looked at the picture of my dog

William

12:24

Prospects chat? MLB chat? What are the parameters?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

Anything! Intentionally didn't say prospects chat since my first three articles weren't really using the same scope as last time I was at FG (which was essentially prospects only).

CJL

12:26

Do you buy the upside for Yordan Alvarez? Astros are treating him like an untouchable/can't miss guy in trade talks, but wondering if he's really that good

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

I am IN

12:27

Liked him as an amateur and there's a chance for 6 hit and power, though lots of guys with this skillset choose to emphasize power/contact more. Will be interesting to see what the Astros development does with him going forward. Great debut, definitely beat expectations but some people knew something like this was in there.

Aaron

12:28

Could you name your top three starting pitchers eligible in upcoming draft?

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

I'll give you more than that! On the HS side, Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker (both GA) and Matthew Liberatore (Arizona) are probbaly the consensus top three. College side you've got Brady Singer (Florida), Shane McClanahan (USF) and I'll say Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss) would probably be my three but you also have Kowar (UF) and Gilbert (Stetson) in FL and Mize (Auburn), Pilkington (Miss St) and Hjelle (Kentucky) in the SEC, so the southeast is really strong this year, especially up top

the real brian

12:34

Who is the best dressed front office employee in all of baseball?

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

Not front office but Twins' senior adviser Deron Johnson always looks sharp

Bartleby

12:35

Do you ever prefer not to answer some questions?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Eric and I also talked about this yesterday. After I run through all 30 systems I'll probably answer like every non trolly question in a row since I have a good feel for everyone in every system but when I'm getting up to speed on systems I'll pick the ones about areas I already feel comfortable with, but I'm conscious to not just do a Braves prospect chat.

Erik

12:36

How many prospects would you NOT trade one-for-one for Christian Yelich?

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