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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/18/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:13
Hello from ATL, Scout is eating lunch and I have a bunch of errands to run once we finish up here
Eric wrote up the scouting reports of Rule 5 guys: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/
12:15
Dan did the projections end of the Rule 5: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/projecting-the-eleven-players-...
Nats list is done and will be up tomorrow
Eric and I broke a little news about the data wars on the amateur side: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-outlaws-amateur-trackman-data-exclusiv...
12:16
and as a little exclusive for the chat crowd, we just updated the 2021 draft rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?s...
2020 is basically done and 2022 will get an update shortly
12:17
to your questions:
intl bonus money
12:17
which of these int'l signees do you see as the better big leaguer long term? Bayron Lora or Erick Pena
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
until we finish all the team lists, I'd normally point you to the J2 rankings here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa...
12:18
which had Pena one spot ahead of Lora and I think that still stands
however, there have been a few 2019 J2 guys that post instructs have outperformed that amateur ranking a good bit, which is something that will happen when these kids get locked down 18-24 months in advance, so they improve and only one team is watching
12:20
you can most easily sort those guys by doing an age <= 17 sort right now: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa...
but eventually we'll have filters for signing data
and the Nationals have 2 kids from the 2019 J2 class that made solid jumps for their list
ADLEY. RUTSCHMAN.
12:20
Good day, Kiley! If you were building an OF from prospects, who would you prefer as the key player: Brennen Davis, or Monte Harrison? Merci!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
We're doing top 100 stuff now and these two are in the same range. I'll lean Davis for now
Laser Schoop
12:22
Do the Mariners have an ace/No. 2 caliber starter in their system right now? Logan Gilbert is the highest FV and seems sharpest so far but he's still outside the Top-50.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Gilbert is their best one right now. His stuff is back to Cape levels, when he looked like a top 5-10 overall pick, so #2 starter is on the table, yes
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:22
Joey Wentz had a nice (albeit brief) stint in Detroit's system in 2019. Where are you at with him? I've seen everything from #3 to bullpen arm. Is back of the rotation (#4-#5) most likely outcome?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Yep, that's about what we have. He's shown plus stuff at times, but that's now been awhile, so we'll say depth starter type
Mike
12:23
In Eric's Rule 5 write-up, he wrote this about the Tigers/Rony Garcia... "The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design." Could you explain what he means by that, and possibly give some examples? I haven't really seen that before and was curious.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Meaning the tech-enabled process of tweaking pitches to give a well-rounded repertoire, like tweaking a grip to get more movement on a pitch, or movement that complements/tunnels with another pitch. They've done this with Mize, separating his cutter/slider/curveball more than he had in college.
12:25
We've seen DET using more high speed cameras in scouting and PD, which, along with TrackMan and Rapsodo, are the main tools for doing this
Jimmy Boy
12:26
Value wise, what does a return for Lindor look like?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
If you're doing a 1-for-1 deal, everyone below a 70 FV should be an equal trade, but I think we've seen most teams take those top 10-15 overall prospects off the table unless it's a push-all-the-chips in type move like Gleyber/Eloy from CHC or Moncada/Kopech from BOS
12:29
I'm running down our list and about a dozen guys look like they'd be in the non-negotiable range
12:30
So then it's a choice between unproven young MLB types, closer-to-MLB prospects and far-off prospects and how many guys you want to spread it across. CLE is the type of team that would prefer to diversify, so I'll guess something like a 25-50th overall type prospect and a couple late/fringe top 100 types, skewed toward the upper levels.
Julio Rodriguez
12:31
What prospect rank should I expect to fall in when the updated ranks are out - top-5, top-10, top-20, top-50, or top-100?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
We also talked about this yesterday in doing top 100 things. You'll be higher than end of 2019 stuff
Justin
12:33
What even is a reasonable prospect return to expect in a potential Starling Marte deal?  Maybe a 50 FV plus a 45 FV?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
maybe a little less than that. I'm thinking a lower 50 and a couple 40s?
DBRuns
12:34
As an Indians fan, the return for Kluber looks super light. What's your take on the deal? 70 cents on the dollar? I guess it all depends on how high you evaluate Clase, and the degree to which you expect Kluber to return to form.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Clase is a guy that may be a little underrated, since there's clear relief ace upside and it's 6 years of control. Kluber also is probably a little overrated given his age, injuries and arm action. Still seemed light to me and, similar to the Brantley non-QO offer seems motivated by payroll restrictions
Jim
12:35
Thanks for the prospect lists, they're the best out there. Looking at the light Kluber trade and the Dodgers reluctance to deal Lux straight up for Lindor, would you agree that we've reached peak prospect porn? If most FOs overvalue prospect potential, is buying vets the new market inefficiency?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
and WSH does it old school, trades all non-star prospects, signs FAs every year, tries to win every year and wins the World Series. Seems to be some clear value in zagging in this area. Basically, it seems like the abstract math in this area (Kluber has two years at a high-variance NPV while Clase has six, so even a low WAR projection makes it easy to balance the math) has now become the market-wide calculation
12:39
now you can only do what WSH is doing (or SFG used to do) with a big payroll and some core stars locked up and obviously is can end badly if you get a little overextended as SFG/KCR have shown. So it's not like the Nats' title invalidates the TBR/MIL more progressive model, but OAK is doing a hybrid between the two
12:43
This is something we get into in the book, but finding a unique spot on the matrix of styles is usually the best option, rather than having some super strong idealogical approach.

The NFL has shown us that a new guy with a good idea that hasn't shown the second idea yet (Chip Kelly, Sean McVay) will always lose out to the guys with a creative approach to solving any problem over a long period (Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Bill Belichick). The first group has the sexy, young, new, progressive label and the second group has the slightly more muddled they-seem-to-figure-it-out-shrug label and I'll take the second one every time.

I think this applies to running baseball teams as well and I think there's a whole lot of "let's be progressive because smart people that are succeeding appear to be doing that" in baseball that I think will regress a bit when it fails. And with a number of GMs on the hot seat right now that broadly fit that description, that could be in the next 12 months.
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