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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/9/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
Hello everyone! After a quick technical issues, we're off and running
12:22
The weather is now solid in ATL and I might go outside and rake some leaves later. Red Sox list is finalized and Eric and I are writing up the capsules today
Harris
12:23
Very surprising to only see Matt Vierling in the honorable mentions on the Phillies list. Could he make his way on by mid season?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Most 5th rounders don't make the list the summer after they sign. There's some tools there, so if he performs again, he'll be on there
Larry
12:23
What do you expect from Amed Rosario this year? O/U 2 WAR?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Over, still big tools and made some 2nd half progress
Wander Franco
12:24
What needs to happen for me to see the majors in 2019?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Would have to be so clearly not challenged at every level that it would be a negative to leave him in the minors. The kid hasn't failed at anything in baseball in his whole life, but that feels like a 95% or 100% outcome.
Jimmy
12:25
I know this is kind of a late question, but I was wondering how much the information the cardinals got via the "hacking" of the astros matters from a evaluation stand point. It seems like on the surface it would be a giant deal. But having listened to a lot of talk from you and eric it seems teams largely know how other teams feel about players. So, that has me wondering if it's not as big of a deal. I can imagine at the very least it's more data/looks on guys which is always a good thing and I can also imagine it might give them a better idea where Houston's board was in that particular draft. Is that all it really effected in your estimation?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
It would be more double-checking outlier reports your team has, or a guy you don't have a report on, but mostly knowing what they think about their own players and yours would be the majority of the value.  And for most players everyone kinda already knows
Kristen
12:26
What are BOS' plans for Chavis who's blocked by Devers?  If they're looking for a closer on the cheap, Chavis fits with TEx
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Chavis is 1B, maybe corner OF going forward and may be more of a platoon guy. I would guess his best years are not with the Red Sox
12:27
They don't really have patience for a young everyday guy whose ceiling is 2ish WAR when they can just sign a vet that's much more likely to do that consistently
Logan
12:27
Questions regarding spin rates on THE BOARD. One column is “breaking,” how is that handled for pitchers with multiple breaking pitches? Also, is the FB spin rate just one type of FB or lumped 2S/4S?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
best breaking ball spin rate. 4s has higher spin so it's normally that if there's multiple. Some pitchers' fastballs are very hard to separate, so many are lumped together already
Trent
12:28
What's Josh Naylors upside? .280/.360/.500 25-30hr? To optimistic?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
South of that
Joey
12:28
Kyle Dohy graduates multiple levels with video game numbers and only a 35+. How good does a minor league RP have to be to be considered an asset?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
He didn't throw many strikes, then higher level hitters laid off the chase pitches and his walks spiked. We're not sure yet that this will work and it's a non elite reliever even if it does.
SEAfahrer
12:29
Hi Kiley,
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Hello
Matt
12:29
Is Kristian Robinson essentially untouchable given the current context of the Dbacks?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
In the sense that ARI isn't really packaging young players for now MLB types and he's in their top tier of young players, yes
Elias
12:29
If Adley Rutschman was in an MLB organization right now, where would be land on a top-100 prospect ranking?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
which is 20-45 on the top 100 right now
this question is the reason we do FV for draft prospects
Noah Syndergaard
12:31
"Several league sources have told us that the Mets don’t scout beneath full-season ball, which is the opposite of what most others teams are doing as data comes to be a greater and greater part of the player evaluation process at the upper levels of the minors." Can you explain this a little more? What does scouting data in the upper minors mean for scouting below full-season ball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
A bigger part of the evaluation pie is done by TrackMan, which is even more useful the older the players are. There are some progressive clubs that only rarely send scouts to upper minors type games. So with the use of those scouts being less, it would seem obvious to send those bodies to the complex levels, where TrackMan is much less useful, especially if there's no scouting context
New England
12:32
What lower level Red Sox prospects should we be keeping an eye on who could be the next wave of top performers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
List probably will be up tomorrow and the 14-25 area has about a half dozen of them. One that's above that tier is SS Antoni Flores. Get in on that while you can
Logan
12:34
Seems like Ian Anderson’s spin rates are super low on the board. Is a 91-94 FB with a spin rate of 2175 RPM really above average? Or a curveball at 1700 RPM? I know the write up acknowledged he wasn’t a spin rate maven, but wow those are low.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Yes, they are. His feel for pitching will be key going forward
Purple Mays Haze
12:34
What do you think are the most important traits of a change up? Release point similarity to fastball, arm speed equivalence to fastball, movement of the pitch? I get the sense that it's "resemblance" to the fastball out of the hand (but being ~ 10 mph slower) and movement is less important. Obviously a reductive question, but your thoughts?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
The three things that matter analytically are movement, 10+ velo differential and spin rate close to FB spin rate
I'd say consistent arm speed/slot with FB is visually important too and obviously command matters, but those are harder to quantify
Purple Mays Haze
12:36
How much pro scouting is performed on one's own team? (To identify tendencies or weaknesses, etc.). Or is that generally the coaching staff's responsibility?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Coaches generally aren't good scouts. Clubs typically send their special assistants (best scouts) through their systems multiple times per year
Steve
12:37
How do you pronounce Shervyen Newton's name?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
I think it's just SHER-ven
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