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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/4/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:08
Hello from ATL, an unusual time to chat but here we are.
Scout is watching the front yard studiously, barking at anyone that dares walk by on the sidewalk
2:09
The Phillies list went up earlier this week, the Mets list is done but will go up Monday and we've a good ways down the road on BOS and TB for next week
Draft list also is basically done but not time sensitive, so that will go up soon enough along with a new podcast
Tommyboy
2:09
With the announcement of Koby Perez as international scouting director, how long do you think it'll take for the Os to be players in the international market?
Blazeball
2:09
Any word on late bloomers in the int'l market that the Orioles could sign?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:11
BAL appears to be making all the right moves to have an actual fully-functioning and fully-funded international department, which is good that now all 30 teams are doing that. There still aren't any names clearly/consensus above the $250K or so area.
Toshi
2:11
Hi, if you have to guess, based on the MLB roster and the state of the farm, how long do you think will take for the Mariners to contend?  This is of course assuming that Dipoto does not do anything crazy. Thank you.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:11
It sounds like the plan is a power rebuild where 2020 they make strides then are in the mix in 2021. If they thought they wouldn't contend for 3-4 years and Haniger has 4 years of control, they would've traded him.
Dane C
2:12
Is there any concern around Alec Bohm's power outage in his brief stint in the minors last year? Or are we talking about a too-small sample size?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:12
Yep, too small. And also, as detailed in his report, he has a flatter-planed swing that's more contact focused than most guys with that kind of raw power, so that could just be what his stats look like until that adjustment is made...and it doesn't necessarily have to be, but I would guess he moves in that direction.
2:14
With a different bat and pitching quality, earlier in the season fatigue-wise, etc. in college it's easier to muscle balls out. There's an example in this video from when I saw him in March:
Jeff Sullivan
2:15
What happened to me?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:15
What happened to us?
Brian
2:15
Geraldo Perdomo, anything to get super-excited over, or way to soon?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:15
Too soon but he and Blaze Alexander both were very solid for the D'Backs in the short season leagues this year, better than expected
Brodie
2:16
Do you see starling marte as being available? How about JBJ? should I be interested in acquiring either?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:16
Don't think either is particularly available
Just some ignoramus
2:16
Are you the one that I should be asking about Jarred Kelenic's HOF odds?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:16
I'd like to take that bet in the FanGraphs Sportsbook lol you'd get good odds and we get to keep your money for 25 years if you have any chance of collecting
Maker Bayfield
2:16
What is the likelihood of Khalil Lee breaking into the Top 100 this season?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:17
35%? Needs to make more contact.
hooha
2:17
How do the Phils manage to keep their Venezuelan pipeline open?  Are any other teams set up to compete there?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:18
Their int'l director, Sal Agostinelli, is the lynchpin there, along with a strong staff. He's generally regarded as one of the top int'l guys, particularly with small bonus types.
Favid Dorst
2:18
Most enjoyable system to evaluate so far and one you're looking forward to the most?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:19
I always like sorting through the really deep ones, so doing TB right now is pretty fun, SD is probably the other one where the list itself will be the longest. Sorting thru the 10 dudes in the top 150 overall for ATL was challenging, flipped those names a lot
Favid Dorst
2:19
How much do analytics departments have to "start over" when a new GM is hired? I'm assuming a new GM will likely fire most if not all of the previous analytics staff. Does the work of the previous analytics staff stay available to the new ones? Do the new ones typically use it or just completely build out their own infrastructure?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:20
Analytics staffs generally don't get changed if it's a moderate to progressive GM coming and going. Director may change, but the changes come in scouting depts where there's approach differences person to person. Analytics staffs are more homogenous team to team. Differences are more a function of resources than personal touch
Homer Dome
2:21
Is Austin Beck a good Corbin Carroll comp? Similar draft range too?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:21
Different kind of player. Carroll is in the Kelenic area of an above to plus tools, good feel/track record, a little more pop than you expect from prep CF type.
Ben
2:21
At what point do we take seriously the possibility that the owners/GMs/both are colluding to not sign free agents? Twitter has passed around the graphic detailing how league-wide, revenue is up while payroll is down.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:23
Just need to tease out that causality more. Are owners doing it and telling GMs/setting payrolls to dictate this? Are GMs communicating directly with each other? Are there just bad incentives/player pay structure and everyone is indirectly landing on similar strategies? Without subpoenas or drastic CBA changes, how would we ever know what it is/isn't?
Bob
2:23
If Madrigal disappoints will it be because he never demonstrates any game power (ie bad fit for modern game) or because his hit tool isn't quite up to the challenge of MLB pitching?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:24
I would say if pitch selection doesn't progress. As pitchers he faces gets better, if he swings as often as he did in college, you're gonna get weak contact and neuter the effect of bat control
Kw
2:24
What is the difference between present-day, 19-year old Cole Roederer and Andrew Benintendi when he was 19 years old?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:25
It's a dangerous game, but Roederer is much better. Benintendi was an old (19 year old) prep prospect who wasn't really a draft type and after his freshman year at Arkansas (20 year old and I saw him that year) he was a solid contact CF type. Made a huge jump at 21.
2:26
So Roederer is ahead of Benintendi, but also any prep outfielder that got 7 figures is also ahead of them and a tiny percentage will actually get close to what he is....so Roederer is like dozens and dozens of players in that regard
2:27
It's fun to get excited about a good debut/good prospect but comparing a Roederer type to a fringe MVP candidate is generally really misguided. Matt Carpenter wasn't even close to a prospect at 21, so anyone in the top 10 rounds as a college junior is ahead of Carpenter at the same age...does that seem instructive at all?
Homer Dome
2:27
Who is the best low-minors prospect nobody has heard about?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:30
Nobody has heard about is really vague so I'll give a few answers
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