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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/15/20
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Hello from ATL! Just wrapped up some calls and I see that we have new font options in the chat software now.

COOL DOPE
12:29
We did the Cardinals prospect list today and the Braves should be coming either this week or on Monday. Handy nav bar under prospects at the top of the screen for the other lists we've done so far.
12:30
THE BOARD is always changing and I've been adding draft guys the last few weeks, so there's dozens of new guys on all the lists if you haven't checked in for awhile :https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa...
I wrote this week about the Rays roster churn and unique posture: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/rays-continue-their-roster-chu...
12:31
Jay wrote about the Houston sign stealing stuff: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rob-manfred-hammers-the-astros/
and I've got something in for editing now about how the Astros will proceed from a baseball ops perspective
Eric and I are also planning Prospects Week 2020 content, so let us know if there's past feature or new suggestions you're really into
12:32
To you questions:
Jack
12:33
What did you guys see out of Travis Swaggerty last year that gave you guys enough reason to maintain his ranking on THE BOARD at midseason?  I'm a big fan of the player and the person, but felt like he really didn't show much at all in Bradenton last year
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
120 wRC+ in High-A as a 21 year old from a small college, who is a plus runner/thrower/defender with plus raw power...uhhh what else were you hoping for?
12:34
the best publicly-available defensive ratings had him at +13 runs in CF last year and teams tell us that's about what they have: http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2019/2019pagePITrealALL.shtml
Jake
12:34
If you were AA, where would you pivot from Donaldson
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
They have a unique situation with Riley/Camargo representing a decent tag-team (if not a true platoon) at 3B, but they both could fit in a corner OF/utility role as well, so the replacement can be a corner OF or 3B. You could argue that moving Markakis/Duvall to the bench is more important than putting Riley there, depending on how his contact ability progresses. With Waters/Pache both coming at some point in 2020 and some money left in the payroll, none of these are giant long-term concerns.
12:38
But I'd probably look at Ozuna first as the bopper solution. If that gets out of my price range, then Castellanos or Bryant could make sense. Arenado doesn't seem likely at all.
Joe
12:40
Did the Braves have any sleeper Prospects that you were suprised to learn about when you did their list?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Yep! You can wait for the list, but the 2019 draft crop is looking better so far than many expected.
Mike
12:40
Can you help me understand why Martin and Torkelson have the same grade coming into the season? Martin's numbers last year weren't much below Torkelson (100 points less SLG, but 40 points more OBP) despite facing tougher comp. Even if he can't play SS, he likely can play 3B or 2B compared to Torkelson at 1B only. What am I missing that makes it close?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Well 50 FV covers prospects ranked roughly 45th to 130th overall, so that's a pretty big range when most people only care about the top 100ish prospects
Big Fan
12:41
So Donaldson to the Twins...Remind us when Pache and Waters might be ready?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
I think they'll come when they're ready. With some combination of Riley, Markakis, Inciarte and Duvall standing in their way, the upside of a ready-for-big-league-time Waters or Pache is a pretty easy decision
I would guess around mid-season?
Kyle
12:43
The BOARD has three 2020 prospects MLB draft prospects with 50 FVs, followed by seven with 45+ FVs. Do any of those seven seemed poised to move up or is it all team preference within that block. To that point, it's extremely early, but do you see any fits (rumored to be scouting, or stylistically) for the Jays at #5?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
I'd say Zac Veen and Nick Gonzales probably have the best change to be a 50 FV by March/April. Veen has some Yelich starter kit qualities and will face good competition early and often in the Orlando area (he got on the radar when he took Matt Allan deep last year) and Gonzales isn't amazingly behind Torkelson/Martin as college bats, which is the main demographic that gets pushed up.
Mike
12:45
Do you think the service time issue is addressed in the next CBA? If yes, what do you think the likely compromise is?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
I'm sure it will get tweaked but there isn't an easy answer. There's always going to be a cutoff and teams will always wait to call someone up when it's close.
Nate
12:46
So any predictions on who the next manager and GM in Houston will be? Any realistic candidates for each besides Espada and Putila? And if it’s Putila as the GM...feel like he’s ready for it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
I cover the GM situation in some detail in the article that should come later today or tomorrow
for manager I would expect Espada
Slothrop
12:47
Do you agree that Patrick Mahome's baseball experience enables him to make passes that other QBs cant make or do you think he's just uniquely talented
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Mostly b, but some a is likely a factor. Mahomes and Kapernick played at the Area Codes showcase in high school, btw. Justin Fields went to PG National, Jake Fromm is also listed on our draft board, the Red Sox have baseball rights to Jeff Driskel and Feleipe Franks...there's lots of QB/baseball overlap.
Matt D
12:49
Hi Kiley, can't say enough how I appreciate the prospect coverage, especially the Red Sox list you published a while back. Do you see any differences in the way the Sox development program will operate under Bloom? They seem to have a strong INTL program, even if their draft history has been spotty, but will we see more changes to either?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Don't think there will be any significant changes in the short-term
Bob wehada baby itsaboy
12:50
I asked Eric last week what the oldest age he ever saw a body transform he named Brandon Lewis you got anybody?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Kumail Nanjiani
Purple Mays Haze
12:50
Do teams 'generally' view $1M on the International market as essentially equivalent to $1M in MLB draft bonuses? Or are they widely disparate...? This feels like a dumb question with an obvious answer...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
I think teams generally prefer the draft since the investment is almost always closer to the big leagues and there's more uniformity across the league. I bet some teams would prefer J2 money or it would depend on the situation, but that's definitely a minority.
12:52
They're generally pretty similar since they're both capped and there's more money in the draft overall, so that compensates for proximity. In situations like Ohtani is about to sign, every team with any shot would prefer J2 money obviously.
Trumbo No. 5
12:52
BA just put a 70 grade on Julio Rodriguez in their Mariners Top-10 list. Obviously FV/OFP/other prospect scales have varying criteria, but do y'all ever see a player graded one way at a publication and reconsider your own perspective on them?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Nope. We're generally aware of the prospects that other publications are outliers on, since one of us is probably missing something, but a specific opinion on a consensus top 100 guy isn't really novel to us.
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