JotCast | Kiley McDaniel

Kiley McDaniel - 11/28/18

Kiley McDaniel

12:20

Hello from FG ATL HQ where there's a staggering amount of leaves in the backyard, but it allows Scout to run laps like she's in the snow, leaving a trail when she pulls a tight turn

12:21

Lots of stuff happening with rumored trades, one big one done, free agency, prospect lists and a fresh draft rankings update coming next week

Tommy N.

12:21

Thoughts on Dan O’Dowd’s trade proposal yesterday on MLB Network of Thor and d’Arnaud for Hedges, Lucchesi, and Paddack?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

It's not terrible, but I don't think that will get it done. We also don't know if the Mets
1) won't trade Thor/deGrom and are just listening
2) want to trade them both this winter
3) will consider only overpays, likely waiting at least until the summer to have a clear idea

12:24

So the price for option 2 and option 3 are probably different, since option 3 either gets an overpay or no deal

And until the BVW administration makes some moves, we don't really know where they stand or how they value players, etc.

I think it's like a 75% chance they're in option 3, so only retail prices will get it done and the above deal is not retail

Diego

12:25

I was so excited to hear you mention option pricing for valuation on UMP as a finance geek and thought "Yes Kiley, go on..." then you let me down bro and didn't expand.

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Uofortunately I would have to do some Wikipedia refreshing to go full finance bro. I bet Meg could pull it off tho!

Mike

12:26

How much of Fernando Tatis' value is him playing SS in the near term? If he moves to 3B, how much does that affect his value as a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

Not much. Either avg to slightly below at SS or above at 3B. More likely he can be a SS, if SD doesn't have a clearly better def SS that needs to be in the lineup, given shifting, Corey Seager, etc.

pelkey

12:30

this seems like old news now, but could you estimate a braves-equivalent package to what the yankees sent for paxton please?

Kiley McDaniel

12:31

You can look at the year-end prospect rankings here and approximate it: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-...

12:32

Something like one from the Kyle Wright/Ian Anderson/Soroka area, and a couple 40/45 toss-ins, preferably in the upper levels or MLB-ready

ABravesFan

12:32

With a not-so-dominant postseason, might Craig Kimbrel sign a short term (or incentive laden) contract with the Braves to rebuild his value?

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

Possible, but only after his market collapses and I tend to think it won't. He should get 3x15 and I think I projected 4 years. Personally, I'd rather have Ottavino at 3x12 than Kimbrel at 4x13, if that's what the prices are

DJ Tanner

12:33

On Monday's chat with Dan, I laid a plan for the Braves to trade Soroka, Riley, and Gohara to the Mets for Thor and then sign Donaldson moving Camargo to utility. Well Donaldson came to fruition, so it looks like I have psychic powers and the Braves will now get Thor. This seems like a win-win as the Mets get 3 high ranking prospects who are all MLB ready and their future infield (Alonso, McNeil, Rosario, Riley) looks set for the next decade. Plausible?

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

I think that's an overpay from the Braves perspective, but I'm assuming the Mets don't want to face Thor the next 3 years, so maybe that's what it takes

BigDavid

12:34

Andre Gimenez, would you be dangling him as trade bait with Rosario under long term control and guys like Mauricio and Newton in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

Low floor SS, probably lands somewhere from 2-3 wins annually. I mean that's fine if you want to trade him, but without a bump in payroll it's hard to see this team competing in the short term and having Rosario/Mauricio/Newton is a terrible reason to just trade a SS. So, I wouldn't.

Bart

12:36

Can we measure the monetary value of roster spot, which is
limited and valuable resource for teams?
By doing so, we could say like, a 4-win player is more valuable than two 2-win players for he costs only one roster spot, or a highly versatile player (or two way player) can provide some roster spot value in addition to his WAR.
And for the 40-man roster, I sometimes think prospect A, a college draftee, is more valuable than prospect B, a similler prospect but a IFA signee, because player B may costs 40-man roster spot to protect him from rule 5 draft while he still needs time in minor leagues.

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Good luck trying to quantify that. Knowing the specific situation impacts those decisions a lot and they're never the same.

Lucius Fox III

12:37

Any pitchers in USA Baseball's 18U team stick out to you? Maybe Jack Leiter or Timmy Manning in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

Just talked to a scout about that team yesterday and he said 2019s Malone/Leiter and 2020 Mick Abel were the best guys by a good margin. And Leiter wasn't particularly good at this event. Abel could be in the conversation as a HS RHP that goes top 5 overall.

12:38

if he continues at this trajectory, doesn't get hurt, knocks on wood, etc.

Cardno

12:38

What kind of trade value does Marcus Stroman have at this stage?

Kiley McDaniel

12:41

I know that ask was multiple top 100 guys in a few cases at the deadline and nobody bit. 2 years of control of a 55-60 PV/FV pitcher coming off a down year. There isn't a recent version of that trade coming to mind. Sonny Gray was 2.5 years and he was pitching well when traded

12:41

I know it may not be the popular take, but I think Donaldson at $23M is way too much. Sure...1 year is nice and he is only a few years removed from his MVP, but the possibility he returns little value (because of performance and/or injury) is much higher than I would like for a $23M player. Your thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

12:44

Strong disagree. He could miss 2/3 of the season, still be worth 1.5ish WAR, then be useful in the playoffs (i.e. the same as a disappointing 2018) and that's worth about $15M, maybe more to a playoff team. And that's a like 20th percentile outcome. There's a real chance, maybe 1 in 4 that he's a 4+ WAR player. Steamer projects him for 4 WAR, so probably more 1 in 2 for them. That caliber of player never signs for 1 year and the premium for getting that low risk 1 year deal is under $10 million. Plus a high draft pick if he leaves or trading him if you're out of the race!

I calculate that thinking that he could get 15-18M on a 3 year deal, so 23-16.5=6.5M. Not a huge premium to go from 3 years to 1 there.

Slamboni

12:45

MLB network floated out the idea of the Yankees trading Stanton to make room to sign Harper. Is it just me or is that idea... really dumb? A lot of work to get worse defensively and get a similar LH bat instead of a RH bat

Kiley McDaniel

12:47

I mean if someone takes Stanton's money it's not dumb. He's high variance with an insane contract, may fall off a cliff soon and just came off of a good/healthy year. This would be selling about as high as NYY could. May get more than they paid for him since MIA is already paying down the money and he's been healthy recently. Now who would actually do that, I think you're gonna have lots of trouble finding that team. But hypothetically a retail shopper for Stanton, they should be interested.

adam

12:47

You said a week ago with Brian Kenny Machado over Harper. Fair and short question-- why?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

I said it on there, but say it a little more detail here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe...

Kyle

12:48

After reading the Pirates list I noticed the write up was extremely high on Oneil Cruz but it seems like his actual ranking was hedged. He’s that volatile?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

There aren't a lot of gangly 6'7 shortstops with 80 raw power, so yeah there's a bit of hedging there since he's a good example of the good and bad of high variance. Could be a 5 WAR guy or never make it.

Link

12:49

Can Austin Riley play 50 defense in LF?

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

Maybe more 45, but he'll be fine

Enrique

12:49

Ronny Mauricio or Brayan Rocchio or Isaac Paredes? Which would you prefer in dynasty fantasy? Where defense doesn't matter except to the extent that they may be forced to move to a non-middle infield position and become less valuable. Thanks Kiley

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

Paredes is much closer and his value isn't tied up in SS specifically, but he'll stick in the infield.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Kiley McDaniel hosts a chat