JotCast | Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat

Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/2021

Kevin Goldstein

12:00

Happy Monday everyone. Ok, at least mildly happy Monday. Let's go.

Toshi

12:01

Kevin, thank you for your work. If you were in charge of the Angels, what would you do with Ohtani's contract in a couple of years? He has all the talents but also risks for pitching, and the payroll construction of the team makes it even more tricky. Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein

12:01

Honestly, and it's not going to sound like an especially helpful answer, but I'd wait a couple years and see if it all holds up.

RAGBRAI

12:01

Do we see many MLB signings or trades before Dec 1st. If I said the over/under total for both was 15, what would you say?

Kevin Goldstein

12:02

Assuming the path to a work stoppage continues, I think we'll see teams be very conservative. gimme the under.

Graham

12:02

Do the Jays make the playoffs? And if so where would you rank them in the playoff field?

Kevin Goldstein

12:03

Probably? They're obviously no lock, but their chances are more than 50% at this point. Just by default, being in the wild card game really hurts their chances, but the offense is obviously incredibly dangerous and the rotation is solid. I don't think they match up with the division leaders especially well, but who knows with short series...

Cole

12:03

Rank the following 4 factors from most to least important when evaluating minor league hitters: Age comparative to level, contact skill, plate discipline, in-game power

Kevin Goldstein

12:03

2, 3, 4, 1

johnathan van metro

12:03

norge vera’s velo has reportedly spiked to sitting 97/touching 101, is that true and if so how does that change his outlook?

Kevin Goldstein

12:04

He's a very impressive arm, but it's really hard to evaluate a 21 year old in the DSL.

Nate

12:04

How can anyone possibly wrap their head around this NL cy young race?

Kevin Goldstein

12:04

By not doing it? Wrap your head around who YOU think is the best pitcher and they don't worry about how a bunch of writers vote.

matt butler

12:04

It seems like a lot of Nola's advanced/underlying numbers are pretty fine, he's just helplessly addicted to giving up 0-2 bombs. Do you think he's back to being good next year?

Kevin Goldstein

12:05

I really don't have many concerns about Nola. Lots of bad luck in there and I'd be pretty optimistic.

matt butler

12:05

can and should i get excited for Mick Abel?

Kevin Goldstein

12:05

Yes and Yes.

Mitch

12:05

Was there ever a player that you pushed very hard for in a trade or free agency that ended up not happening?

Kevin Goldstein

12:05

Sure, many. Happens all of the time.

RAGBRAI

12:05

Do you see a change in the next CBA with September call ups? I agree the old way was a bit to much. Is this year'snumber to low? How do FO offices feel about Sept. roster expansions, are they that useful for evaluating talent in such a SSS?

Kevin Goldstein

12:06

They're very useful in terms of evals, but they really do throw off the game. I think 30 might be the best number, along with maybe some kind of limit to the number of pitchers on an active roster.

Maddoning

12:06

Frank Schwindel is a top-5 hitter in baseball since the trade deadline. Obviously he can't sustain a 169 wRC+, but how real is The Tank in your opinion?

Kevin Goldstein

12:06

Stay tuned......

James

12:06

How long does Kyle Tucker need to be a top-10 bat before Dusty moves him to the top half of the order?

Kevin Goldstein

12:07

Probably next year. No need to start messing with a lineup that's not broken heading into the playoffs.

Tom

12:07

Do you think the Giants legitimately played to the 99th percentile this season as far as projections go, or is there stuff under the hood that the projections didn't see?

Kevin Goldstein

12:07

Most definitely the latter.

12:07

I know every situation is different, but lets say a team receives a fairly significant trade offer that they are heavily considering. About how many people in the FO are responsible for evaluating that offer? Does it stay amongst the executives/VPs or do lower level analysts also get a chance to put in their 2 cents?

Kevin Goldstein

12:08

Most teams have an inner circle. About 3-6 people that will begin the evaluation, and then they'll start leaning on people out of the circle to help with the decision making.

12:08

Hi Kevin. Prediction time, Astros center fielder next year is ... Jake Meyers? Chas McCormick? Other?

Kevin Goldstein

12:08

Jake.

Detroit Dennis

12:08

can you please rank Yelich, Matt Chapman and Bellinger in order of who you most expect to return to their All-Star form from 2018-2019? Thank you!

Kevin Goldstein

12:09

I think that's probably the order I'd go with.

hunny munny

12:09

how much do teams trust data for amateur pitcher evaluation? where would, say, a 21 yo rhp sitting 95 w a plus flashing breaker but *zero* in-game looks or stats get drafted?

Kevin Goldstein

12:10

Yes, they would trust the data, and they'd certainly also have video on the player. There are a lot of teams that are making big school pitchers (ACC, SEC, etc.) a far smaller priority for in-game looks because of all of the data and video available on these pitchers. There are better ways to spend a Friday night seeing guys who have less data/video available.

Jefferson

12:10

Nick Madrigal is still a long way from baseball, but is now finally with the cubs and major league coaches. Is there actually development for him in the last month of the season? Or is it strictly a personal thing of getting him familiar with the new team and staff?

Kevin Goldstein

12:11

Definitely some familiarity there and also the medical/conditioning staff managing his rehab.

Cold Turkey Stearns

12:11

How does a stripped down non-contender balance getting prospects playing time with maintaining the integrity of the competition for contending clubs?

Kevin Goldstein

12:11

They don't.

Appa Yip Yip

12:11

What happened to the Yankees?