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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 6/7/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:00
Happy Monday everyone! Missed you fine folks last week due to the holiday, so I’ll get to as many questions as I can before I clear the deck for Ben Clemens in two hours.
Mike
12:01
As a Braves fan, I feel like this Ozuna thing has zapped a lot of my excitement. Are they really going to be on the hook for his contract for three more years? I'm not sure they can realistically compete with the Mets/Dodgers/Padres group in the future if that's the case.
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
Ken Rosenthal covered this well. While there are clauses that allow teams to terminate contracts, those clauses have not been collectively bargained and it's likely that any action would lead to a grievance and it's all very ugly and complicated.
AJM
12:04
Bubba Thompson has gotten off to a good start at AA.  Is he getting himself back on the prospect map, or do you think this is a mirage?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
It's worth putting a checkmark next to his name. He's really tooled out, and it's something to track. Still some approach issues to solve, so it's still TBD but so far so good.
Vince L.
12:04
Does a front office ever reach out to another team, to check in on player interest, after that team has a significant injury? In other words, did Aaron Hicks' injury cause other teams to check in with the Yankees? Does that kind of reach-out happen frequently?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
They do, but you have to kind of respect what the team is going through. Maybe just a text a few days later. Don't want to be tacky.
Darren
12:06
Is it a pretty clear top 7 for the draft: Vandy boys, Davis, Mayer, Lawler, House, Watson?  Anyone you would add or drop?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
I think that's fair, but it's important to note that I would not be that those are the first seven picks.
Andrew
12:06
Very quietly, Tomas Nido has been hitting much better than expected in parts of two seasons. Is this small sample size noise, or is there something here that suggests he's figured something out?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
I think it's at least fair to say the Mets are likely more comfortable with their catcher situation than they expected.
Darren
12:07
Do you think Competitive Bonus picks and Qualifying offer picks will still exist next year?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
Hard to say. Historically, the draft has always been an afterthought in terms of the CBA. It's often the last thing they discuss, including one time where it was hashed out after they announced they had an agreement.
Adam
12:12
If you have a batter who sees 10 pitches every at-bat, guaranteed, with each ending in an out, walk, or single (no extra base hits) and a .310-.330 OBP, how valuable of a player is he?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
This is a fun question. There's some value to extending pitch counts, but can't say this player is super valuable.
Tucker
12:12
What team is the absolute floor for Rocker? Could he fall out of the top 10?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
That would surprise me.
Quarantino Martinez
12:15
Hi Kevin! Any insight into what the Astros do with their rotation down the stretch? Luis Garcia looks so good, but doesn't have a lot of innings in his history.
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
Just ride it out.
Eric
12:16
A lot of scouting sites didn’t have Joe Gray Jr in even the top 30 for the brewers, how much is his stock up after his very good start in Carolina?
Kevin Goldstein
12:16
It's up for sure. Tools are huge. Definitely whiff issues.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:16
If you were in a front office that locked in Cole or Bauer on mega contracts, how much would you be sweating the sudden sticky stuff crackdown? What would the reaction be?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
If they crack down on everyone, the bar moves, and they remain two of the best pitchers in the game, so really not very concerned?
Mets fan
12:18
Do you have any thoughts on the mets prospect Carlos Cortes? He is a bit older, but really seems like he can handle the bat. Dominated the Australian baseball league over the winter and is off to a good start in AA
Kevin Goldstein
12:18
He has some offensive ability, but the question has always been is it enough to cover for his other shortcomings.
Justin
12:20
What happens when one team pretty clearly rips off another team?  What goes through, say, the Astros' mind when, say, the Pirates give a Meadows Glasnow and Baz for Archer?   Is there just sort of a collective eye roll?   An anger for missing out on taking advantage of that situation?  Does it not even register, as there's enough other stuff to worry about?
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
It certainly registers, but like you say, briefly.
Brandon
12:20
At catcher, the Dodgers have Will Smith (arguably top 5 in baseball, 4.5 years of team control left), Austin Barnes (strong defensively and good rapport with pitchers, 1.5 years left), and 2 top~100 ish prospects in Keibert Ruiz (improved swing, hitting well at triple a so far) and Diego Cartaya (mashing at single a, still a teenager). What would you do if you were them, and what do you/the industry think they’ll do?
Kevin Goldstein
12:21
It's always wrong to assume you have too many players at one position. Just let it ride for now.
Tim
12:22
Thoughts on Brooks Raley? He has suddenly become Dusty's second most trusted reliever despite the high ERA although his xERA/xFIP are much lower. Did the Astros turn him into something usable?
Kevin Goldstein
12:22
They did. He's a usable big league reliever.
Justin
12:22
Are you still doing keto?   Any idea if it's helped your lipids?
Kevin Goldstein
12:24
I am. More of a lazy keto where I don't count anything but stay away from sugar and carbs.
Kate
12:24
Not really a prospect anymore, but Patrick Sandoval had 32 whiffs last night.  Against the Mariners, yes, but I'm not sure you can fake THAT level of swing and miss.  Is there something to get excited about here?
Kevin Goldstein
12:24
It's an outstanding changeup, and he should be a usable back-end starter.
Justin
12:26
Who do you think the Pirates are taking at pick 1?
Kevin Goldstein
12:26
I'd bet on Mayer today, but it's not with a lot of confidence.
Kate
12:30
Obviously old for the level, but Greg Jones racking up the counting stats at A+.  However he's also King a ton.  Does the high K rate worry you (esp given the age for level)?
Kevin Goldstein
12:31
It's probably always going to be an issue, but he does so many things. Ellite speed, on-base skills, sneaky pop. Lots to make up for the whiffs.
Mike
12:31
Hey Kevin - saw you mention it on twitter but wanted to get your thoughts on the DSL and GCL/AZL seasons and whether they'll get full seasons. With the draft coming, how will all of these guys get playing time? Seems like a lot of young players losing out on development time.
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