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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 4/26/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:01
Hi everyone. Good to be here at my actually schedule time to chat and already several questions in the queue, so let's do this.
Guest
12:02
Hello Kevin ! I have a question, i don't know if it's possible to do it easily : get the wins/losses of a team with and without a player ?
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
I think you could mess with some weird WAR stuff and do some quick addition/subtraction but I don't think it would really be accurate....
Neil
12:03
George Kirby: 100 MPH with command and looooong legs: is he the next Jacob degrom??
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
C'mon, it's Monday. CALM DOWN.
asnbrv
12:03
Do you believe in personal catchers being significantly beneficial?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I believe that a player's comfort level is exceptionally important in terms of getting the best performance out of him. Sometimes that's a role, sometimes that's a spot in the batting order and sometimes that's a personal catcher. Really underrated part of the game and not something anyone can easily put some kind of measurement on.
Kate
12:04
If Odorizzi needs to miss some time, have to think Luis Garcia is the first in line for those starts, right?  How do you like his odds of becoming a solid rotation piece?  Eric's offseason writeup of him was pretty glowing and he's held his own so far in his short time at the big league level.
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I think he'll be a perfectly fine starting pitcher. Not a star, mind you, but perfectly fine.
Mark with a K
12:04
What is your opinion of the experiments MLB is conducting in the minor leagues - double-hook with SPs and DHs, moving the mound back 1 foot to try for more balls in play and fewer strikeouts... won't that just lead to more pitcher injuries?  Or would pitchers really change their approach to pitch more to contact?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
I'm trying to be open minded to seeing how they play out and seeing what the data from them playing out tells us. It's hard, but I'm trying.
Trader Bob
12:05
What would you try to do with Garrett Richards / have him do, if he were in your org?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
See if you could find success with short stints out of the pen...?
Guest
12:05
Has Dustin May broken out, or is he just on a good run right now?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
He's going to be very good. Believe.
steve
12:06
brave of you to talk about nick madrigal in terms other that he is a surefire hall of famer. white sox twitter is a scary place. given that you live in the chicago area, are you scared for your safety?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
Not at all. I don't think any team's fan base/twitter profile is any worse than any other, it's more of a numbers game. It's not like I said he wasn't good. I got far more pushback in Chicago for my Baez piece.
Jake
12:07
Kevin, I'm curious as to internal org. prospect rankings. Beyond the top guys, do teams keep some kind of dynamic 1-___ ranking of their prospects or is it something more tiered in terms of loose groupings of "dude", "fringe prospect", "org. guy", etc.?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
Yes, I do support some loose groupings, but more of Group 1 = top three prospect in most orgs; group 2 = top 10 in most orgs; group 3 = 11-30 in most orgs, etc.
kcbg
12:09
Hi Kevin. Let's say the Mariners are competitive when the trade deadline nears. Let's also say Seager continues to have a good year. If it were you running the show, would you keep him or trade him? If keep, would you pick up his option year?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I don't see a path to him getting that option picked up, and if he keeps hitting like he has (I don't think he's having a good year) he's not going to have much trade value. I might just let it ride.
Jake
12:10
Kevin, last week you mentioned that you weren't a fan of a singular label - FV, OFP, etc. - for prospects. Was this something you picked up while w/ the Astros? How would you go about delineating between prospects in the alternative of these kinds of metrics?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
Yes. It's something I took off of our pro reports. I liked a floor/most likely/ceiling type of rubric.
Kate
12:11
Arozarena looking whifftastic so far.  Do you think he's able to calm down the swing and make more contact as the season moves on or is this going to be an ongoing issue for him?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
I mean, he's never going to be a big contact guy, but I think he'll be better than he has been so far this year.
JR
12:11
Is there an unwritten rule between GMs not to claim certain types of players off waivers (e.g. 3rd/4th catcher types)?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
Not at all. Only unwritten rule is not to claim a player who is going through the process in order to sign with a team in Asia, and that is noted in the waiver wire that is sent out to teams.
Daniel
12:12
Opinion on Tatis peeking?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
People peek all the time...
Kate
12:13
Got anything on TCU's Russell Smith? Backspun FB with plus command and a CH that has shown ++, 32% K rate
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
Thanks for the tip and I now want to go dig in on him.
Kate
12:13
Amed Rosario has made huge strides so far this season with his plate discipline, but it's not showing up in his surface stats.  Do you think this eventually drives a return to relevancy for him or is this just another approach tweak that's not going to work?
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
It's a fun question, and a more complex one than you might think. There are players where more walks might actually hurt them. It's something worth monitoring.
Kate
12:15
Carson Kelly is just obliterating balls so far this year.  Does any of this uptick stick or does he eventually tick back down to something more resembling his 2019?
Kevin Goldstein
12:16
I mean, obviously he's not going to throw up a 1200 OPS on the season, but I do believe in the talent and that he'll be a well above-average catcher. 850 OPS work for you?
Todd
12:16
How ridiculous is it that we expect 40-60 year old people to imagine an invisible zone hovering over a plate 8 feet away and to determine with total conviction that a 98mph ball (with movement) nicked the outside boundary of said zone?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
About as ridiculous as assuming some sort of computer model for doing the same fixes everything.
kcbg
12:17
What is the most remote location you have travelled to watch/scout a baseball game? Did you consume any interesting local grub?
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
In terms of outside of the stats, Mexico City, Tijuana, Tokyo and all over the Dominican Republic. Found great food everywhere I went. Had great tacos with the great FlipFlopFlying in Mexico City, an incredible fancy sushi meal with a NPB exec in Tokyo, and so many good meals in the DR....in terms of staying continental, I loved going to North Carolina as I'm a huge sucker for Carolina BBQ.
Kate
12:19
Do you think the minor league season starts when planned (I think it's early May)?  Haven't hear much about this since the AAA season got delayed.
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