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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 2/22/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:00
Hi everyone. I would make a Monday joke here, but who keeps track of days anymore? Lots of great stuff on the site today. Eric and I discuss how teams will prepare for this years draft, RJ on the Mather mess and the usual great transaction analysis from the team. Hope you've enjoyed what you've seen this year and if you haven't already, consider becoming a member. Also, I'm podcasting again and you can find Episode 1 of Chin Music with my guest co-host David Roth and Pedro Moura on Dodgers stuff, it was a lot of fun and happy to be talking again. But enough about me, let's get to you.
Chase
12:01
Thoughts on SF Giants currently and outlook on future? Farhan has done a nice job IMO
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
Farhan has done a nice job IMO as well. I think he's great. He also seems to have to patience of ownership which allows him to do things the right way and not act rashly, which is a rare luxury. I especially liked the Sanchez signing. High risk, but big upside as well.
RP
12:02
Favorite Houston restaurants? Do you like banh mi?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I never lived in Houston, but had some great meals there. Favorite place by the ballpark is Irma's Southwest, a Tex Mex place run by a great family. Quick lunches were usually at this dumpling place called Doozo's in this weird mall/food court setting that was about a ten minute walk away.
Andrew
12:04
I really hate being a Mariners fan.
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
Yeah I get it. You're mad, and you SHOULD be mad, but in some ways Mather is just saying the quiet part loud. He's certainly not the only member of an ownership group who thinks this way. Not excusing it at all. Maybe I'm just cynical from eight years in baseball. I saw it and said, "of course he thinks that." To be fair, lots of front office folks do NOT think this way.
Jack
12:06
Who was the best prospect you saw yourself who went bust?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
I thought David Paulino was going to be a really good major league pitcher.
A big dumb idiot
12:07
I've been really taken aback knowing that FG playoff odds use the same playing time estimate for every simulation which seems odd to me. Do teams' simulations account for the differing possibilities of injury?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
I don't know about every team's simulations/projections. What I will say is that after spending three weeks here and looking closely at ZIPS and talking to Dan about it, the product you are getting here is major league quality.
Vince L.
12:08
Do orgs feed sites such as FanGraphs, BP, BA and MLB, with an information asymmetry about prospect rankings? In other words, who FG ranks as No. 1 is actually No. 7, and the "real" No. 1 is actually an IFA who hasn't hit the States yet?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
Some do for sure, yes. That's why on the outside you need to diversify your sources.
Kate
12:09
I'm seeing pretty varying grades on Nick Gonzales' speed.  Eric for instance has him at a 40, but I've seen him at a 50 (or even above) in various other places.  What's the disconnect here?  I know Eric uses hand-timed home-to-first times, do others use a different measure?  Thanks!
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
H21 times are important, but I've always been in favor of a separate baserunning grade to measure impact. There are 50 speed guys who can really swipe a big or have a knack for taking extra bases on hits, and there are 60 runners who can't.
Harrison
12:10
Did you have a more general form of statistical method that ended up being useful in uncovering guys from tiny schools, or did you specifically fit your model to certain parameters to figure out how to measure those guys? Or was it unrelated to statistical methods entirely?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
It's a mix. You can have a statistical method to identify targets at tiny schools, but then you have to scout 'em up to see if there's anything actually there.
Becker
12:11
How do you prepare your coffee? You seem like a French Press Guy.
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
I am a French press guy, or more accurately, my lovely wife is a French press gal. She makes the coffee in the morning, I just pour a glass, put it in the freezer for a bit and make iced lattes every day.
Aaron G.
12:13
What, if anything, should we take away from the GCL/DSL?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
If you have pitch data and video it can be very valuable, but the raw stat lines need to be taken with a gargantuan grain of salt.
Guest
12:14
I understand working in a front office has long hours, weekends, high divorce rate, etc. Not to be glib, but has anyone tried...not doing that? Like if you were an analyst could you just say "hey I'm going home at 6, my kid has a teeball game?" Would the org actually fire you or is it more of an unwritten corporate culture that's just never really been pushed back on/ tested?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
I hear you, and most teams are happy to let the person go to the tee ball game, but some stuff is unavoidable. Every team plays on weekends, and pro teams are playing six or seven days a week. It just comes with the territory.
Kate
12:16
Can you think of any recent examples of guys like Pache (big speed, doesn't know how to convert it to SBs) who improved their base stealing substantially at the MLB level?  Do you think he can turn into a true SB threat or will he always be a guy who uses his speed mostly on defense and just good baserunning (without steals)?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
I'm always reminded of Erick Aybar. He was a pretty efficient base stealer in the big leagues for a few years. When he first came up, he really struggled with jumps. The Angels solved it by just forcing him to run all the time. He was caught a pretty remarkable 59 times in 2004-5 in the minors, but it helped him figure it out.
Guest
12:18
How far down the corporate ladder in an MLB front office do you have to go before 90% of the players don't know you by face/name? Like I assume they all know the GM... do they know the Asst Directors? Scouting?
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
They all know the GM, and probably the AGM, and it gets dicey from there. I'd guess on a random Astros team from 2012-2019, maybe ten knew my name?
Rock Auto Parts
12:19
Hunter Brown is a guy I’ve been reading some good things about. Should we be buying a breakout from him?
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
And buying big.
JH
12:19
How open would you be to ranking teams’ front office analytics capability? Like who’s out in front and who’s still in the Stone Age.
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
Not open because I don't think I'd do a good job at it. Some teams are well known, others are seen as backwards but are doing sneaky work in that regard. I've seen people count team analysts as some kind of measurement of investment and even that can be flawed as many teams use contractors in that area so they don't show up in the count.
Cashman
12:22
is benintendi a satisfactory outcome for his draft position and prospect pedigree
Kevin Goldstein
12:22
If he retires tomorrow he's already well above-average for a seventh overall pick. Might sound crazy, but it's true.
Kate
12:22
What are your thoughts on Abraham Toro's chances to carve out a role as an everyday starter at some point?  Eric's tool grades on him on the 2020 graduates tab are pretty glowing.
Kevin Goldstein
12:23
Everything about the guy in terms of performance and data suggests he should hit in the big leagues, but he hasn't yet. It's a weird one.
Chris
12:23
So kevin mather is going to escape another scandal right?
Kevin Goldstein
12:23
Billionaires tend to fall up.
Kate
12:24
Do you think Bracho ends up stealing any bases at the MLB level?  Or does the speed taper off by the time he gets there?
Kevin Goldstein
12:24
Aaron Bracho can rake, but speed is not going to be a big part of his game.
Kate
12:25
Does Greg Jones eventually find an everyday role in TB?  Or is he destined for some kind of multi-position utility role?
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