JotCast | Justin Mason Baseball Chat

Justin Mason Baseball Chat

Justin Mason

9:49

Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

10:00

Good morning/afternoon and happy fantasy baseball season!

Luke S

10:00

I'm a depressed 49ers fan and am getting more depressed thinking about the Giants being stuck in no mans land. What will cheer me up

Justin Mason

10:01

Are the Sharks going to be good this year?

10:02

I don't know man. The Giants have sat on the fence so ling between trying to be competitive but not really that the fence seems to be permanently wedged inside of them. I don't know what they are doing and as a Giants' fan myself, it is frustrating.

Greg

10:03

I can keep 15 in my league, and I'm keeping Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman for sure. Yainer Diaz makes a lot of sense as my last keeper. Any concern of keeping four guys from one lineup in a head-to-head points league with daily lineup changes?

Justin Mason

10:04

I think you should have some concern depending on how big your bench is. You need to maximize the plate appearances on days off and it is hard to do if you stack too many guys. You could lose weeks where the Astros have five games instead of six or seven if you can back fill

Dan G

10:05

Which player going in the first two rounds has the biggest bust potential? Also, who and at what number would you to take the first pitcher off the board?

Justin Mason

10:06

Elly de la Cruz probably has the biggest bust potential from a straight skills prospective, but also a massive ceiling. I would say that from a health prospective Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez have the biggest bust potential.

10:08

The earliest I would take a starting pitcher is largely dependent on league size and format. The deeper the league, the more likely I would take a starter in the back end of the first round. In a 10 team league, I doubt I would take a pitcher before round three or four.

However, in a points league that could change depending on the format of the scoring.

Dave

10:09

Is the recent report of Wicks possibly starting the season in triple-A a result of not needing a fifth starter early or does the club plan to have someone else as the fifth starter?

Justin Mason

10:09

We see this a lot because the early season schedule can include a lot of days off so teams don't need a fifth starter. I would be surprised if Wicks didn't get a shot to be the fifth guy.

Guest

10:09

Any chance we'll get a list from you folks as to which teams will be running 6-man starting pitching rotations?

Justin Mason

10:09

I am sure we will once we have a bit more clarity.

Usher

10:10

Do you inherently value hitters over pitchers in keeper/dynasty formats? If I wanted to shop Spencer Strider for a top end bat, should I not expect to get one in a 1 for 1 without adding something on top? Or if dealing with those type of offers do you think just better off keeping a top guy like Strider

Justin Mason

10:11

I do value hitters over pitchers in most dynasty/keeper leagues because of how often pitchers get hurt. With Strider, I would want a top 10-15 hitter though to move him because he is arguably the #1 pitcher in fantasy.

Guest

10:11

Anywhere I can find out how many runs are typically scored in ballparks by calendar month? (for instance, is San Diego typically more favorable vis-a-vis the cold weather parks to hitters in April, or do Santa Anna winds or some such spring effect perhaps make it worse)

Justin Mason

10:12

I am sure there is a way to look that up but I honestly do not know off the top of my head. I would ask Alex Chamberlain or Alex Fast. I will try and ask them myself and if you hit me up next week, I should have the answer

10:13

Who are a few NL-only non-closer relievers you like to amass holds/Ks?

Justin Mason

10:13

A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Lucas Sims, Colin Holderman, Hector NEris, Joel Payamps, Taylor Rogers.

John W

10:14

The batted ball data for Josh Naylor looks great but I'm leaning on keeping Ian Happ due to league structure and Naylor's injury history. Their projections for this year look somewhat similar - what say you, Justin? In a 5x5 OBP keeper league.

Justin Mason

10:15

I think I lean Happ here because Naylor has never gotten over 500 plate appearances, but I do really like him and think this could be theyear he goes over that threshold.

Ken

10:16

Keeper question. 10-team CBS 5x5 Roto. 34 man rosters (32+2 IL). Must keep 8. Can keep a player for 5 years, round slot increases by one each year. Need to keep 2 of these 3: McLain, Ragans (year 2- 19th/20th round), O. Cruz (year 3, 27th round). Currently keeping Soto, Albies, Gallen, Bobby Miller, R. Lewis, N. Jones. Leaning Ragans, stuck on which infielder.

Justin Mason

10:16

McLain and Ragans for me.

Ken

10:16

Something I've always struggled to figure out - re: auction league keeper decisions, do you look more at a player's salary vs. his value, or his salary vs. what he'd likely go for at auction if you were to drop him? In other words, how much are you factoring keeper-related inflation into your keeper decisions?

Justin Mason

10:18

How I approach leagues like this is by doing a mock keeper list for the other members of my league. I guess who I think the rest of the league will keep and then run that through draft software to see what my best options are. Sometimes it makes sense to keep a higher priced stud because the inflation is going to be high, but I usually lean towards the players that give me the best value in terms of $ values.

Guest

10:19

Hi Justin. In an AL only roto keep 5: Simeon $24, Garver $7, E. Carter $7, Vinnie P $7, J Holliday $7, Royce $7, J. Caminero $7, Ragans $7, G. Rosriguez $7, Kirby $16. Leaning Semien, Royce and Kirby so far. Thanks!

Justin Mason

10:19

Semien, Royce, Kirby, Holliday, Grayson

Daro

10:19

Do you prefer Casas over Vinnie P in a dynasty league? Cats includes: K BB OBP Slug

Justin Mason

10:20

I prefer Vinnie P

Its come to this

10:20

Jake Cronenworth or T. Story as last keeper in a points league?

Justin Mason

10:20

Story

Eric

10:20

Does Matt McLain's dynasty value have room to climb, or do you think he's probably met his ceiling? Same question with Spencer Steer.

Justin Mason

10:21

I don't think he necessarily has a ton more upside, but I also think he has a pretty safe floor. If he can stay on the field, he is a really valuable dynasty piece in that park and on that young up and coming team.

Salty

10:21

You and I both had the DBacks to win the division but not the pennant, that's why we're not swimming in cash. Have any thoughts on longshots this year? I'm trying to talk myself into KC to win the Central, but haven't got there yet.

Justin Mason

10:22

You and I are on the same page again. I think KC is a really interesting dark horse in that bad division. I don't think I will make it to Vegas this year but I will try and place a bet on them when I am in a state that allows betting.

John W

10:22

For 2024 only, who would you rather have: Albies or Oneil Cruz? I've got Bellinger, too, and between his statcast data and Cruz's health I'd like to get a more stable player and reduce risk. Am I overthinking it? OBP-league if that matters.

Justin Mason

10:22

Albies

Gina Pepiot-i

10:22

Any chance the Rays use Pepiot as a bullpen freak rather than in the rotation? I’ve earmarked him as a starkeeper but

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