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Jun13_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:03
Happy Friday everyone! Let's get started...
Leon
12:06
What do you think are likely outcomes for Braxton Ashcraft ROS?  About what % chance would you assign for him to becoming a starting pitcher this season with an ERA under 3.90, under 1.25 WHIP and >60 IP?  Maybe 20% or less?
Ray Murphy
12:06
I don't have a clear read of what PIT is doing here. Performance wise, our projection says he could meet your criteria. But after using him for 3 IP/50 pitches in his first start, he seems to be settling into a more traditional short relief role. I think they wouldn't be doing that if they actually had designs on him starting later in the year. But maybe they feel differently about role changing than I do.
Broken Bat
12:09
Ray, what’s your outlook for #1. “Empire” Anthony; is he up for good? 1st series seemingly he held his own but w/o luck, a few hard hit Atom Balls. #2. Top pitching prospect, Chase Burns was promoted to AAA. A healthy Greene, Abbott pitching like a stud and adding Burns… Reds can do some damage in 2nd half IMO. When-if do you see Burns getting a ticket to ride?
Ray Murphy
12:09
I think it's up to Anthony whether he's up for good. If he settles in while Abreu is hurt, I don't think they'll send him down. (That said, I don't exactly know how they make everyone fit once Abreu comes back.)

For Burns, I'll defer to Chris Blessing's look at him from last month. Key quote:

"For me, Burns is the 2nd best pitcher in the minor leagues, behind Bubba Chandler (RHP, PIT) and the best prospect out of the 2024 draft. Unlike Chandler, who is a 2025 rosterable pitcher for me when he is promoted to MLB, Burns (even if he makes his MLB debut) is not. While his FB looks ready to compete at the big-league level, metrically and shape-wise, the lack of command in the zone will get him eaten alive by MLB hitters."
Tundra
12:10
In a 4x4 would you drop Ober for Alcantara?
Ray Murphy
12:10
Absolutely not. As bad as Bailey has looked in his last two outings, that's exactly how Alcantara has looked the entire season.
rpou@rpagency.com
12:13
Batting Average taking a hit due to my Rangers (Garcia, Burger, Langford), do you expect better BA from them rest of season?
Ray Murphy
12:13
Burger's BA and contact at least look better since he's come back from the minors. His xBA and Langford's say they should sit closer to .250. Adolis is what he is, I think. Not a lot of BA upside from this group.
Bob
12:14
Do you think Kenley Jansen will be traded at the deadline by LAA with Detmers becoming the closer ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:14
Detmers certainly seems to be settling into that role. Anything can happen, though... yes, I expect Jansen to be traded. But if Detmers keeps throwing like this, there will be a trade market for him too.
Lou
12:16
12-team, NL only, dynasty. Is Ivan Herrera a growth stock? Have him at a cheap price but not loving the fact he's already been moved out of catching (for the most part). Is he a 30 HR bat in 2026?
Ray Murphy
12:16
Even before he reached the majors, I'm not sure anyone was putting "30 HR bat" on him. Things in STL are so weird right now with the leadership transition... it could be that Bloom sees Herrera's future role differently than the current admin. He's still a nice young catcher, so "growth stock"? Sure. But pump the brakes on that 30-HR talk.
Bob
12:17
Hi Ray, In a deep NL 5x5 league, in top tier with S+H but last in Wins. Who would you drop when Woodruff comes off IL?  Adam, Brazoban, D.Lee, Strahm, Vesia, or Kyle Harrison?  Thx
Ray Murphy
12:17
Maybe Harrison, but I think you've got a little more time to watch and decide.
Texasbob
12:19
2 players Miguel Vargas and Evan Carter I'm currently holding on my dynasty team seem to be exploding.  Are they doing anything different from previous years?  (coaching/swing/new superpower?)  Or is this just a natural post-hype maturity of rookies with good skill sets continuing to develop?  Do you see these improvements for ROS or just a blip?
Ray Murphy
12:19
We've had some coverage of Vargas in various places (check his Content tab in PLink for references), there's a lot to believe in with his improvement this year. Sample size is small for Carter right now, but it sure looks promising... if he can make contact at an 82% clip, it unlocks a ton of goodness. Here's hoping it sticks, I picked him up in a few places when he was coming off the IL.
Lou
12:21
Speculating on closers for 2026, NL-only, dynasty. Assuming Misiorowski sticks as an SP, is Abner Uribe a safer, smarter trade target than Trevor Megill? The latter has the job (and impressive velo) but the K-BB% is a bit underwhelming.
Ray Murphy
12:21
It would be a very Brewers thing to do to trade Megill and leave that job to Uribe... at some point.
Frank
12:21
I'm in a 12 team mixed 5x5 with OPS instead of BA and QS instead of W. I've been carrying Aranda 1B/2B (Yahoo) but rarely use him and I need SP help. Warren and Gipson-Long have caught my eye in the FA pool. Should I drop Aranda & Misiorowski for those two?
Ray Murphy
12:21
I wouldn't drop Misiorowski. SGL doesn't excite me, esp. in a QS league. Aranda for Warren is the most reasonable move for you.
Don Dringus
12:24
Is Jo Adell looking interesting again?
Ray Murphy
12:24
Similar story to Carter above, just a little more gradual rather than sudden. 77% ct% for Adell over last month is very good... if he can hold that, the BA floor rises and the power (and speed that we haven't seen as much this year) can really flourish.
Vince
12:24
In 12-tm H2H category w HD+S, please rank ROS Adam, Deitmers, Varland. Thanks
Ray Murphy
12:24
Anything can happen with relievers. But right now I'd take them in the order you listed. Talked about Adam on HQRadio today.
Don Dringus
12:27
I thought Ober was a budding ace. What is wrong with him?
Ray Murphy
12:27
Velocity is down, SwK is down, K-BB is rough. I should have said on the earlier question re: him and Alcantara that I am worried about Ober... I just wouldn't replace with Sandy if that was the choice. If you have better choices, I might.
BHQ Subscriber
12:28
Who the hell is Heriberto Hernandez, and more importantly, is he someone worth watching?
Ray Murphy
12:28
6D rating in our Callup Report is a shorthand for "no".
Franco Fine Jewelry
12:29
Hi Ray - 12 team roto got a lot of guys hanging out on my bench fighting to UT time.  How would you rank these guys ROS and would you drop any of them: Pages, Meadows, J. Lowe, Wallner, Beaty
Ray Murphy
12:29
Probably more guys than you need there, but I like them all well enough. If you need to free up a roster spot I'd probably dump Lowe first.
Pump N Dump
12:31
Hi Ray - Ben Brown has received plenty of positive coverage on BBHQ this year.  Quite a ride so far. Good upcoming matchups but is this a long term investment?
Ray Murphy
12:31
We're not always right, but we'll always say to trust the skills, and his are pretty darn good. Try to ignore the start-to-start roller coaster.
Hambonita
12:35
Hello Ray: like what I have seen from Will Warren but try to remember he is a rookie.  What can I expect the rest of the year?
Ray Murphy
12:35
Yeah, he was really rolling until he reminded us off the volatility in those starts vs. the Dodgers and Red Sox. Looked like he got right last night in KC though. I think you have to be a little worried about how the workload affects him in 2H. He only threw 130 IP last year, he's on pace to get to 90+ by the ASB if he stays on turn until then.
The Old Grey Wolf
12:37
Hi Ray - I have Birdsong in a few places but he's very useful in 12 team H2H points.  Does he got the goods?  Love the Pod with you and PD.  Please ask him to work on that overmodulation :)
Ray Murphy
12:37
He's settling into the rotation, I think you have to be a little patient while he ramps up the workload, gets back to using his full arsenal, etc. I'd like to see more strikes in general. But a really interesting SP prospect for sure.
Deep
12:38
If Yelich is injured, who plays in his stead?
Ray Murphy
12:38
Seems like we dodged a bullet here with Yelich playing last night. Garrett Mitchell has to be back soon, no? That was an oblique and he's going on 6 weeks now.
Frank
12:39
Quick follow-up: In a QS league, how would you rank Warren, Misiorowski and Ben Brown?
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