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July 18 2022 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
11:59
Coming to you live .... from LA! On the West Coast for the All Star festivities; glad you could join us. The queue is full, but feel free to ask about Saturday's Futures Game, our MLB Draft coverage ... or the traditional right now questions on your teams. Been a great first half; let's get to the questions!
Jack
12:03
I'm not sure how to value Trevor Rogers in a dynasty league. Has the first half just been a temporary setback or was he overrated based on last year?
Brent Hershey
12:03
I'm holding out hope it was a temporary setback; feel like at least the past few non-disaster starts say that this is just part of the normal prospect progression. I know I put too much stock in his 2021 and perhaps the ceiling is a bit lower right now that what I thought in March, but I'd be holding (or looking to acquire at a bit of a discount) in a dynasty league given his age and track record.
Rick
12:04
Although Torkelson being sent down is surely a short term deal, has his long-term outlook changed much? Do you see him as a future .260 30+ homerun hitter or more likely under .250 and 25 homeruns?
Brent Hershey
12:04
Still think the power will play; not ready to ding him long-term just yet. He's still a 30-ish HR guy in the future for me.
Jack
12:06
Rather have Cruz or Gunnar in a dynasty league?
Brent Hershey
12:06
Cruz; the tools are just a tick better for me. Although Gunnar's season is legit and his Futures Game BP was very, very good.
Today
12:11
I know it's too early to make a good projection, but what's your educated guess at Esteury Ruiz's auction price next season in a 11-team 5x5 NL-only keeper league? Trying to decide whether to trade him now or not ....
Brent Hershey
12:11
In a keeper league, there are enough questions around his hit tool where it might be prudent to shop him right now. San Diego so hard to protect rest of season, let alone next year. Lots of moving parts there. I'll bet that Ruiz's 2023 auction price is in the single digits (speed flyer), but the inputs are limited right now.
Beano
12:13
would you waive a $6 D Hall to make a FAAB bid on E Ruiz? My speed guys are Turner & M Harris🤔
Brent Hershey
12:13
More Ruiz ... but this I might do if you're looking for short-term speed for this year. I'm a bit skeptical that Hall will keep up even this level rest of season; there are enough holes in his swing that I think he'll be a guy where once "the book" gets out, he could struggle.
Greg
12:15
In an AL 5x5 league and need saves for the second half-who do you project gets more saves between Felix Bautista (Balt) or Andres Munoz (Sea) ? As always-Thanks for your input.
Brent Hershey
12:15
I'd choose Bautista, b/c I believe better chance Lopez will get dealt, and Muñoz would have to emerge out of a larger group.
Will
12:19
olivares or taveras ros 4x4 kee[er league AL only. and can Jake Meyers hit well enough to be an assest in our league? again, thank you !
Brent Hershey
12:19
My first sense is Taveras, as I think TEX is more committed to him in 2H than KC is to Olivares. Meaning he'll get the longer leash that could set him up for better results in the near-term (2023, etc). Olivares could also do the same, and there's lots to like there 2H and beyond, but I pref Leody just a touch. Meyers — yes, though not 100% sold that his power will come back this year due to his shoulder surgery. But HOU seems committed to giving him a shot in CF.
DrDave
12:22
NL-only, currently have active Ashby, Lodolo and Ashcraft who are under-performing despite seemingly glowing adoration from BaseballHQ.  I have Eflin and Junis on reserve.  Would you recommend staying the course or moving on to the injured but returning Junis and Eflin?
Brent Hershey
12:22
Lodolo is the one who stands out for me of that trio. I worry a bit about Eflin and Junis both from a health perspective, and would take Lodolo over both for rest of season. Would probably move on from Eflin first -- that chronic knee issue isn't trending well.
KC
12:25
Hi Brent, and thanks for your weekly vine. AL-only Roto player and BBHQ subscriber, and it continues to show Skye Bolt as nearly a $20 player for 2nd half. How realistic is that? Is he an under-the-radar talent? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:25
Thanks, that projection still giving us trouble; for me the BA is too optimistic and driving that $20. We'll take another look. That said, I do think he could be an under the radar play ROS -- there is opportunity in OAK, of course. Even though they are awful, it's a team to keep tabs on in the 2H.
D-backs forever!
12:28
Merrill Kelley last 4 starts 2.05ERA, .911 WHIP, FPK%, SwK% & Velo upticks.  Hot streak or new level of performance?
Brent Hershey
12:28
Intrigued, especially when paired with his first month or so of the season. I was on the Brent Strom bandwagon (pitching coach) in Feb/March; could well be that those upticks appear later in the season as we're seeing here. Not going to go crazy, but could be worth checking your FA lists and keeping tabs on ARI matchups.
Michael
12:31
What to do about Trevor Rogers? There's not a whole lot available to replace him. Lodolo, Smyly? I don't have much room to bench him and I'd hate cutting him- he's a NL only keeper
Brent Hershey
12:31
Yeah, in a NL keeper, I'd try to find a way to keep or stash. Guess you could replace him with Lodolo, but less of a track record there and the park factors swing is going the wrong way. Could also depend on what your 2022 looks like -- if you're in the race, cutting bait could make more sense, though still not optimal.
Still Hungry
12:36
If Josh Bell is traded, who gets the AB for WAS?
Brent Hershey
12:36
Might be someone not on the roster right now, frankly. Bell played there every game but one so far. They'll probably be looking for younger MLB-ready talent, which could shift the calculus. These are just guesses; as they don't really have a 1B prospect in the system: Maybe if a 3B comes back, Franco moves over? Yadiel Hernández, perhaps? Riley Adams?
Dalton
12:38
H2H 12-team redraft points league and need 3B help. R, SB, and RBI all valued the same. For ROS how would you rank Bohm, Yandy Diaz, and E Rivera on KC.
Brent Hershey
12:38
In the order you have them, but a decent sized gap between Diaz/Rivera. Seen some glimpses of Bohm's power emerging from time to time in 2022.
John
12:42
Hey Brent: Can you rank these outfielders in terms of keeper value (using OPS in a 6x6 league): Michael Harris, Josh Lowe, Leody Taveras, Alek Thomas, Nolan Jones, Riley Greene, Cody Bellinger? Thank you!
Brent Hershey
12:42
Greene, Harris, Taveras, Jones, Lowe, Bellinger, Thomas -- though could flip those last 2. Greene and Harris in front of the others for me.
AAA Allstar
12:44
10 team NL only keeper league - 5x5 with OBP instead of BA. Do you think Yerry De Los Santos will take over the closer roll in Pittsburg if Bednar is traded? Is Yerry worth picking up ASAP? Thank you for taking our questions!!!
Brent Hershey
12:44
Does seem like he would be the guy IF they traded Bednar based on usage so far. Several open-ended 2H saves questions in the queue; this is one possibility, though not clear to me whether PIT will trade Bednar away or not.
Ron
12:49
Hi Brent,  what number would you assign to trade probability for Castillo and Montas?  And is Luis Robert a top 5-10 OF ROS in points league where HR, RBI, and SB are key?
Brent Hershey
12:49
1-10 scale; 10 being traded, I'd give Montas a 9 and Castillo an 8. Given the game-wide need for pitching depth, think the returns for CIN and OAK will be too good to pass up.
Robert question teeters heavily on health; the "lightheadedness" that popped up over the weekend gives me some pause. Otherwise, yes, I think he's in the top 10 OF for your format.
Ron
12:52
Hi Brent,  does Carpenter get regular ABs ROS in New York?
Brent Hershey
12:52
Hard to me to see that; but I'm one who would have said this performance so far is a pipe dream just six weeks ago. So I'm going to answer no, though my confidence level is not high. Power metrics (FB%; HR/F) way out of whack with his history. And I know there's stories of him changing his swing, etc, but I'm still skeptical this is a season-long adjustment.
Kasey
12:54
Sorry, who stays between B.Garrett and J.Junis?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Garrett for sure; seem like he's in that rotation right now. Junis concerns are 1) health and 2) role w/ SF -- easy to see him in a non-traditional role (4 inning starter; 3-inning bulker, etc)
Eddie
12:54
Happy All-Star break!  How soon will pitchers Peralta and Luzardo be back?  They both seem to be on rehab assignments.  Worth grabbing either of them?
Brent Hershey
12:54
More interested in Peralta than Luzardo. Track record.
louMartelli
12:56
Shine your crystal ball. Should I deal Bobby Miller before the Dodgers do? He seems like an ideal chip to get for whatever hole they want to patch, especially given the rise of Gavin Stone this year and the potential of Dustin May returning by late August.
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