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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/28/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Our final Friday baseball chat of the regular season
stever20
9:08
How concerned should Red Sox fans be with Chris Sale and his velocity the other night?  Was he just holding back?  

Also, do you remember a bigger x factor type of situation entering the playoffs as we have Sale this year?
Jeff Sullivan
Pretty massive drop-off since Sale came off the disabled list
9:10
I know there was speculation at the time that Sale wasn't actually hurt, and that the Red Sox were just doing what they could to give him a break. This would be compelling evidence to the contrary
9:11
Arguably worse than the lower average velocities: the lower max velocities. During the summer, Sale was getting up to 99-100. His max velocities in four games since returning: 97, 97, 96, 95
9:12
It really could be that Sale is just pacing himself, conserving himself, but if that's the case, I'm surprised he hasn't aired it out even once. My concern here would be a 7 or 8 out of 10
9:13
As Patrick Corbin demonstrates, it's possible for a pitcher to just suddenly lose velocity and still remain okay. But it is not the norm
Colonel
9:13
Can you think of any big names who might suddenly become available this winter, like the Marlins trio or Cole last winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I guess they're not really big names yet, but the Padres will presumably have to trade an outfielder or two. There's some talent and cost control there
9:15
While it's unlikely, there's a chance the Mariners throw in the towel and trade James Paxton
9:16
Mets might be convinced to move Noah Syndergaard
Obviously, JT Realmuto is out there
9:17
Lesser player here, but the Cardinals might decide to trade Jose Martinez
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
9:19
Apologies if this is something that's already been discussed, but I sorted the Mets by Def recently, and noticed that their top four players by this measure were starting pitchers, as was #6. So then i looked at all the other NL East teams. They weren't as extreme as the Mets, but all had their Def leaders list similarly dominated by starting pitchers. Not nearly as bad in ths AL East, but still seemed to have starting pitchers ranked too highly. Is there something wrong with this stat?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
That's a function of the positional adjustment for pitchers as offensive players. It doesn't really tell you much, but it affects NL teams more than AL teams since NL pitchers collect more plate appearances, and Def is a counting stat
9:21
For these purposes, you can basically ignore it. No real reason to care about pitchers as offensive players
Whitty
9:22
I’ve heard talk of how the Nats may be fine if they can’t resign Harper due to the emergence of young stars such as Soto. My question is should they even try to resign him? An OF of Soto, Robles, Eaton, and Taylor has the potential to be one of the best in the game, and they wouldn’t be hampered with a 400+ mil contract.
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
One would be right to observe that Robles is unproven, Eaton is unreliable, and Taylor is unproductive. Harper obviously would make the team better, and he's by far the easier player to market. That being said, it all comes down to cost, and Harper's value to the Nationals will presumably be exceeded by his value to someone else. Someone with an inferior outfield picture
9:26
As such, the Nationals would be smart to prepare to distribute their resources in several areas. They could use, for example, a second baseman, and more rotation help
Spicy Boy
9:26
thanks for jinxing willians astudillo. jerk
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
On the plus side, he finished 2-for-4 with 4 RBI!
9:27
As Astudillo creeps up on 100 plate appearances, his wRC+ sits at a healthy 143
He's the best
Webolgger
9:28
Is the FanGraphs Community blog still alive?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Travis Sawchik had been running it, so when he took another job, the responsibility was supposed to trade hands. It looks like the transition hasn't...yet...done anything. I'll inquire after the chat
To my knowledge, the community blog hasn't been shut down intentionally. I would assume it will come back
Calvin
9:30
Playoff odds currently have the Rockies as favorites to win the NL West, which is the first time that has happened since FG tracked the odds. Do you think this is the first time that has happened...ever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Good question! The Rockies have never once won their own division
I don't think it ever would've happened in 2009
9:32
Mayyyyyybe 1995 -- the Rockies were up a game and a half with nine games left to play
So if odds existed back then, the Rockies probably would've been the favorites for a little bit
...and then they finished one game out
Nicky
9:34
Am I crazy to say Ohtani is the best LHH in AL this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
He very well might be the best strict lefty
But he's probably not the best hitter who hits left-handed -- Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter, but when he bats lefty, he seems better than Ohtani is by a little bit
9:36
Granted, by wRC+, the separation is only three points in Ramirez's favor. But the BABIP split is 105 points in Ohtani's favor. So...
Rox Fan
9:37
Are the Rockies actually gonna win the NL West?!?
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