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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/31/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
And welcome to what is almost a long holiday weekend!
Thank you for already mentally checking out from work so that you can participate in this exchange
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
9:08
What do you think? Was it a foul ball or a foul bunt?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
I lean pretty strongly toward foul ball. I do not believe that Lorenzen had intent to bunt that pitch
9:09
But to me the strongest counterargument is the way Lorenzen spun away from the inside pitch at 0-and-1. He did not spin nearly so much at 1-and-2, which makes me wonder
So I'm at, say, 80-20
(The polling results are currently 60-40 in favor of foul ball over foul bunt)
Shifty
9:09
Given the Rays success with their Opener strategy, would you anticipate other teams employing it next year if they can’t reliably piece together a traditional 5-man starting rotation?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
On the one hand, the seal has been broken. On the other, even the Rays have said they were basically forced into this because they haven't had enough starting pitchers. They *had* to do something creative
I don't think we're going to see a sudden flood of openers in 2019. Rather, what I expect is to see a bunch of openers when teams, say, have a doubleheader, or are temporarily down a starter or two. More openers in emergency situations
KMA
9:11
Brewers offseason not looking too bad, eh?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I don't delight in Lewis Brinson's struggles, but that probably gives the Brewers additional peace of mind for the moment
9:13
Monte Harrison hasn't improved. Isan Diaz looks okay. Jordan Yamamoto looks maybe the most interesting
That's getting into the weeds. Shorter answer: correct
Chase
9:14
Pujols is done and it's hard to see him fitting into the Halos
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Also correct
Granted, it was already hard to see him fitting into the Halos this season
9:15
Next year, if Ohtani is able to play, he'll be the DH something like 50-60% of the time. Pujols could be a part-time player, picking up the rest of those ABs, but it doesn't seem like he should play much more first base. I feel like this is approaching settlement territory, where the Angels pay Pujols most of the rest of his contract and then he agrees to retire
Stewart
9:16
On the Fangraphs WAR leaderboard, Jose Ramirez is the only player in the Top-29 that has a BABIP lower than his batting average. And there are only 2 or 3 players in the entire league that have a lower BABIP than batting average. Jose Ramirez’s BABIP is .266 and his batting average is
.290. Which is a 24 point differential! The next player with the biggest point differential is Didi Gregorius at only 3 points difference (.267 vs .270). Is there anything important to learn from this data?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Jose Ramirez is a fly-ball hitter, and when he hits the ball well, it tends to go for a home run. He's not really a line-drive guy. Difference between his 2017 and 2018 is that a chunk of his doubles have gone over the fence
9:18
The best years of Jose Bautista were similar to this. Air contact, lots of homers. Not so many other kinds of hits
Q-Ball
9:19
Since the All-Star Break, the top 3 relievers in xFIP are Hader, Stammen, and Chavez.  What are Stammen and Chavez doing differently, and is that sustainable for each of them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Stammen was already good in the first half. He's just been quietly dominant, like Kirby Yates in the same bullpen
9:22
Seems like he has the best sinker he's ever thrown
Chavez is fun. 16% K-BB with the Rangers. 31% K-BB since joining the Cubs
9:23
Also, with the Cubs, he's been pitching in higher-leverage situations
9:24
He's leaned fastball/cutter and worked on constantly getting ahead. Interestingly, since joining the Cubs, Chavez's whiff rate has gone *down.* So I don't think these strikeouts are sustainable
Serviceable
9:25
Which Brewer is most likely to win NL MVP?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Right now it would be Yelich
Big Doof Energy
9:26
3 hours prior to first pitch, all unsold tickets should become free with the purchase of a $25 (MLB) or $15 (MiLB) concessions voucher. Am I obviously wrong?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Well then pretty much all tickets would remain unsold until the three-hour window
What incentive would someone have to buy especially one of the more expensive tickets ahead of time?
9:27
Teams could stand to lose an awful lot of gate money, it seems like
Raymond
9:28
As a Red Sox/Mookie Betts fan, I've been watching the WAR leaderboards all season. About a week ago, I stopped watching cause Ramirez started to pull way ahead. Then Mookie slumped pretty hard. Finally, I look back today and Mookie's WAR jumped a full win and hes back in the lead. What's the reason for this?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Over the past seven days, Betts has a 225 wRC+
9:29
Ramirez, by contrast, is at 48
That's pretty much all you need to know
Roger
9:30
How interesting is Joey Wendle to you? He has been hot, but generally not highly regarded.
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