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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/20/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Jack
9:06
Who would you take for the rest of their career, Greg Bird or Jake Bauers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Bauers. Even though I think they're both perfectly fine right now, Bird is 25 and Bauers is 22
That's an impossible age gap to overlook
Ross
9:07
So all within the last few weeks, the Kings got Ilya Kovalchuk, the Lakers got LeBron James, and the Dodgers got Manny Machado. Has any city ever had a better month than L.A. just did in terms of exciting acquisitions by their sports teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Now, I'm not following all that closely, but are we assuming Ilya Kovalchuk still has a whole lot left in the tank as a 35-year-old who hasn't played in the NHL in years?
9:09
LeBron being in there alone pushes LA toward the top. Few athletes like LeBron. I don't know, has some city recently acquired an elite-level quarterback? Manny Machado pales in comparison
Mac Gwire
9:10
What move do you think the Yankees should make before the deadline? It seems like their greatest areas of need have nobody available to help.
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I'd just target a back-end starter and another good reliever. The starter would just be there to help over the next 2.5 months, and the reliever would allow them to stack quality innings in the playoffs
9:11
Similar to last year, when the Yankees' bullpen was so good and so deep. You don't need the rotation to do very much if you can get six strong innings from your relievers every day
ChiSox2020
9:11
Nice work with the trade value series. How do you evaluate Stanton's trade value? Big contract, big production. Do you think he's a net positive?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I do not. Stanton was already minimally valuable above his contract last winter, and now his strikeout rate is up eight points. Not many teams could take him on, and even fewer would want to
9:13
This is always a little uncomfortable because I love Stanton as a player and as a dude, but since we're talking strictly in baseball terms, he'd be very difficult to move
Poised
9:13
Should the Rockies trade Arenado in the off season or try and make a last push while he's there?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
The Rockies were pretty good last year, and they're pretty good this year. They're likely to be pretty good next year. What pretty good team ever trades away the best player on the roster?
I'm not saying it doesn't make a certain amount of sense in theory, but in reality, that's an unsellable move. Players and fans would be furious
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt
9:15
Are you buying Hoyer's belief that the Cubs see positive regression?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
The Cubs are on a 97-win pace. No
9:16
There are certain individual players who are likely to do better in the second half, but it goes in both directions. Jon Lester, for example, has a 2.58 ERA and a 4.35 FIP
9:17
The Cubs are very good. It's cute that some people think they're so troubled
Mac Gwire
9:17
With Machado and Hand already gone, who's left? Are we in for a boring 2 weeks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I mean, yeah
9:18
The next two weeks will be *active*, but unless the Mets actually trade deGrom, the biggest splashes have already splashed
I'm sorry but I don't really give a shit who ends up with Mike Moustakas
9:19
Most of the current sellers are really, really bad. Teams that are really, really bad don't have many high-level trade assets
PJ
9:20
What are Luis Castillo's chances of having a decent second half?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
He's been a lot better since the calendar flipped to May and while his ERA is over 5, his xFIP is under 4. I'm still a strong Castillo believer
James
9:20
The Astros and all of their full season affiliates lead their leagues in strikeouts. Is this a coincidence or part of a bigger strategy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
From top to bottom, the Astros are a juggernaut
It's all anecdotal, but I don't think there's a better organization in baseball with regard to player development. They just know how to get value out of raw ingredients
The Astros are going to be good for so long
Tim
9:22
Buck Showalter should just retire after this season, right? Or at the very least resign. He’s too old for this shit
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Showalter's 62, but Jim Leyland was doing it until he was almost 70. If anything, I think Showalter wishes he had *greater* responsibility
Matty P
9:23
Candid thoughts on Indians Padres swap?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I think the Indians came out ahead by a fair margin
Not that I disagree with the idea of the Padres cashing in a couple good relievers, but I don't think nearly as high of Mejia as so many other people do
9:24
Real chance he doesn't catch, and real chance he keeps swinging at everything
John B
9:25
Will Marwin Gonzalez salvage his season and have a good 2nd half? It looks like he is a little unlucky.
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
After what happened last season, Marwin's career luck is still comfortably in the black
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