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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/13/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
9:07
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
To my knowledge Manny Machado still hasn't been traded
If it were to happen during the course of this chat, well, I probably wouldn't know
Carl
9:08
Which Austin would you rather, Barnes or Hedges?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
For a game today, Barnes. For the longer term, Hedges, since Barnes is three years older
THE Average Sports Fan
9:09
What is a reasonable return for the Reds to expect for Harvey?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Jaime Garcia trade
Either one of them
9:11
Harvey still hasn't been very good with the Reds, and while maybe another team could squeeze more out of his stuff, he's obviously been a difficult person to deal with, and right now he doesn't look like a guy you'd want starting in the playoffs
Babe Lincoln
9:11
Last day of work today.  How should I celebrate tonight?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Responsibly
Pio
9:12
Is Castellanos getting slept on? .374 wOBA with a .397 xwOBA and he's still only 26. His defense is rough to terrible depending on your metric of chose but the bat'll play.
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
He's beginning to hit in the mold of J.D. Martinez, and you don't really want to have him playing anywhere for you in the field, in the mold of J.D. Martinez
9:14
He's not as good a hitter as Martinez is, but the profiles are similar, and it's just too bad his defense sucks because there's so much to like about him in the box
9:15
One minor quibble: he's beaten up on a lot of bad pitching
Comes from playing in the worst division in recent memory
9:16
Of the 248 players with at least 200 plate appearances, Castellanos' opponent strength ranks 22nd-easiest, according to Baseball Prospectus
A bunch of Indians, unsurprisingly, rank even higher
stever20
9:18
Corey Kluber last month 5.03 ERA (15th worst) and 4.72 FIP(22nd worst).  How concerned are you?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
As I look at the numbers, there's something weird going on -- over the past several weeks, Kluber's arm slot has evidently dropped
9:21
The movement profile of his cutter has changed, and his breaking ball hasn't been getting so many whiffs
9:22
Because at this point there's no questioning Kluber's true talent, I'm inclined to downplay the problems here -- he could figure this out. He didn't look like himself in April 2017, after all
9:23
But I don't know why the arm slot would change. No reason for that to happen, unless we're looking at a mechanical deficiency or some underlying injury. Impossible for me to tell which from here
APODionysus
9:23
Hey Jeff! I was wondering, has any research been done on the effect of a heavy/light schedule on a team’s performance in that stretch? Not so much strength of opposition, but more a schedule with very few days off/doubleheaders/etc?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but then, there's a lot of baseball research being done I'm not aware of
With the busy stretches, it's also not just about performance while busy -- it's also about performance afterward, when players and rosters are simply more taxed
In theory, that should even out for everyone by the end. But there's a reason so many teams like to have an active bullpen Triple-A shuttle. Fresh arms, always at the ready
Charles Finley
9:26
There's been some discussion about the Yankees trading for another RP in addition to an SP.  Is this really necessary?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
No deadline addition is ever necessary, and the Yankees certainly have more depth in the bullpen than most of their rivals, but I don't think I've ever known a baseball team that had enough good relievers down the stretch
9:28
Think of it this way: the more good relievers you have, the less you have to ask for from the starters. It reduces the burden on everyone, and in effect makes the rotation stronger on a per-PA basis
naomi
9:28
If baseball seams are white, how much will it affect the batter's offence performance?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Cataclysmically
And it would become incredibly dangerous to stand in the box
THE Average Sports Fan
9:31
Is any team more sad than the Orioles?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
The Orioles right now are incredibly sad
But if I were to go out on a limb for a moment, might I point to the White Sox?
The White Sox are supposed to be building something, and they suck too
9:33
Very few players in the organization have made meaningful statistical progress. The Orioles have no hope, and that blows, but the White Sox have *decreasing* hope, and that blows in a different way
(I'd still much rather be the White Sox)
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